What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?

[HisMajestyBOB]

What am I looking at here?

https://youtu.be/PTCEPBDekH4

[Sheilbh]

I mean it's stupid, but you know it's going to be.

Ed Miliband's sandwich springs to mind

Edit:

But heck - it was a news story when Gerald Ford fell down some steps on an airplane.  And just to confuse the non-Canucks, this photo of PC Leader Robert Stanfield may have cost him the 1974 election.

And Ford was still a Simpsons gag (lovingly) when I was a kid twenty years later

That one seems particularly unfair because of Ford's athletic past.

[Tamas]

I mean, you have to admit, an 80 years old President having a "falling off/over stuff" episode at what seems every year is not a good look for a leader. It may very well be unfair to have this impression but it does highlight just how bloody old he is.

I like him but having him run for reelection is crazy.

[garbon]

I mean, you have to admit, an 80 years old President having a "falling off/over stuff" episode at what seems every year is not a good look for a leader. It may very well be unfair to have this impression but it does highlight just how bloody old he is.

I like him but having him run for reelection is crazy.

It is true we likely won't see him wrestling a bear or anything like the below. That's probably okay though.

[Tamas]

Just because he'll be the infinitely-preferred option over whatever man-sized turd the GOP will run against him, it doesn't mean people should be fine with 80+ years olds running the country.

[Josquius]

Just because he'll be the infinitely-preferred option over whatever man-sized turd the GOP will run against him, it doesn't mean people should be fine with 80+ years olds running the country.

Unless he's a man sized turd obviously. Then that's somehow different.

[Savonarola]

Just because he'll be the infinitely-preferred option over whatever man-sized turd the GOP will run against him, it doesn't mean people should be fine with 80+ years olds running the country.

I don't think the majority of Americans are fine with it; most of the polls I've seen say that even the majority of Democrats don't want Biden to run again.  Another poll that I just saw showed Biden polling at 60% of likely Democrat primary voters, given that his opponents (Marianne Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) are... uhm... unorthodox candidates with a er... unique perspective, that's not a great number.

Since the beginning of the 20th Century there have been three incumbent presidents who have faced significant primary challenges (Taft, Ford, Carter.)  In all three cases the challenger lost (Theodore Roosevelt, Reagan, Ted Kennedy respectively) and the incumbent then lost the presidency.  This is why Biden hasn't faced a serious primary challenger, and, if he won't step aside (and, quite possibly, even if he would) he is the Democrat's best hope for keeping the White House in 2024.

[Tamas]

Just because he'll be the infinitely-preferred option over whatever man-sized turd the GOP will run against him, it doesn't mean people should be fine with 80+ years olds running the country.

Unless he's a man sized turd obviously. Then that's somehow different.

Who is saying that? Well, apart from the GOPtards. You and garbon are acting like I am saying people should vote on Trump/De Santis because Biden is elderly.

I understand that we (as in sane people on the planet) hope that "not a Republican" will be enough for the Democrat's candidate to win next time, but perhaps it is not an evil thing to highlight the potential weak points of said candidate, for example that he is elderly who has as much trouble not falling over as many other 80 years olds. The guy is often visibly strained to keep up appearances at public events, clearly focusing on getting through stuff with robotic movements (no doubt the exact same way I'll be at his age if I'll be lucky enough to live that long). I don't think "shut up he is not old!" is an argument that successfully hides or addresses what's clearly visible.

[The Brain]

Just because he'll be the infinitely-preferred option over whatever man-sized turd the GOP will run against him, it doesn't mean people should be fine with 80+ years olds running the country.

Unless he's a man sized turd obviously. Then that's somehow different.

Indeed. With a turd being frail is a positive.

[Josquius]

Just because he'll be the infinitely-preferred option over whatever man-sized turd the GOP will run against him, it doesn't mean people should be fine with 80+ years olds running the country.

Unless he's a man sized turd obviously. Then that's somehow different.

Who is saying that? Well, apart from the GOPtards. You and garbon are acting like I am saying people should vote on Trump/De Santis because Biden is elderly.

I understand that we (as in sane people on the planet) hope that "not a Republican" will be enough for the Democrat's candidate to win next time, but perhaps it is not an evil thing to highlight the potential weak points of said candidate, for example that he is elderly who has as much trouble not falling over as many other 80 years olds. The guy is often visibly strained to keep up appearances at public events, clearly focusing on getting through stuff with robotic movements (no doubt the exact same way I'll be at his age if I'll be lucky enough to live that long). I don't think "shut up he is not old!" is an argument that successfully hides or addresses what's clearly visible.

What I mean is Trump is only 4 years younger than Biden (on paper. In practice Trump seems much more aged). Everything Trump and his supporters said about Bidens age during the last election will be relevant to Trump at the next. Yet it'll only be Biden getting this treatment.

[Tamas]

I think that's only true for Trump supporters and they are irrelevant since they are beyond redemption. Trump has already lost an election to Biden, and his senility (which I am quite certain is way above Biden's) shall be evident during the campaign, it already was 3 years ago.

[Savonarola]

What I mean is Trump is only 4 years younger than Biden (on paper. In practice Trump seems much more aged). Everything Trump and his supporters said about Bidens age during the last election will be relevant to Trump at the next. Yet it'll only be Biden getting this treatment.

In 2020 Trump did receive criticism for his age.  From the New York Times:

Trump's Halting Walk Down Ramp Raises New Health Questions

The president also appeared to have trouble raising a glass of water to his mouth during a speech at West Point a day before he turned 74, the oldest a president has been in his first term.

Even Biden was critical of him for that incident.  If Trump does have some sort of senior moment he will most certainly be criticized in the press on social media.  Biden, as president, is much more in the public eye and therefore much more likely to have his senior moments caught on film uploaded to file.

[Barrister]

What am I looking at here?

A man fumbling a football while on the campaign trail.


More detail: the man is Robert Stanfield, PC leader, in the midst of an election campaign against Trudeau Sr.  The economy sucked (it was 1974 after all), Trudeau wasn't super popular.  Stanfield was at an airport waiting for the plane, throwing a football around.  You know, the kind of thing politicians do to look young and active.  By all accounts he caught almost all of the balls.  But he failed to catch one, the photographer took just one pic of him looking particularly old and ungraceful, and the rest is history.

Of course it's impossible to blame the entire result on just one photo, but it was widely distributed at the time.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, here is a good description of it.  The shame of it is if they had just stopped before that last pass, he would have been viewed as athletic and youthful.

https://parli.ca/stanfields-fumble/

The Canadian Press news photo of PC Leader Robert Stanfield fumbling a football pass that became a visual metaphor for his losing 1974 election campaign.

The fumble took place on the airport tarmac next to the PC campaign plane during a refueling stop in North Bay, Ontario. The PC leader was engaging in the time-honoured fitness break regimen of tossing around a football with aides. CP photojournalist Doug Ball snapped away as Stanfield caught one pass after another. And then, the money shot: Stanfield literally dropping the ball. The photo was a disaster: the bald, bespectacled, gangly former Nova Scotia Premier seeming old and uncoordinated as the ball slipped from his awkward grasp, a look of apparent befuddlement and panic on his face.

An instant icon was born. The Liberals under Pierre Trudeau romped to a majority government (aided by their vow not to impose wage and price controls. See: Zap! You're Frozen).

A cautionary example was set for all political aspirants to follow: always fear the unblinking, unrelenting – and, yes, unfair – glare of the camera's eye.

Image Source: Doug Ball, Canadian Press

[OttoVonBismarck]

Biden's age is a weakness but it was a weakness in 2020. Trump's age and mental fitness was also a weakness--both in 2016 and 2020, as it will be in 2024.

I personally don't think these will be the deciding factors in the campaign.

The biggest risk for Biden is that he is facing off against DeSantis in a "clean" race--while in some respects DeSantis checks all the objectionable boxes Trump does, most voters are dumb and uninformed. To them, DeSantis is a reasonable white, middle aged man in a suit who doesn't ramble like he has a TBI ala Trump or look lost like Grandpa Joe. Most voters won't go deep enough to understand DeSantis is as bad an option as Trump was on policy and governance, just wrapped in a nicer package.

However, despite DeSantis being the first Republican willing to truly challenge Trump--I struggle to see the math where he beats him in the primary. Trump's unmovable base of 35% of the primary electorate is simply too daunting given the number of important winner-take-all primaries on the GOP calendar.

If you're a big Republican donor who knows this, or one of the backroom party people, my guess is you're hoping Trump's legal troubles coalesce into enough of a shitshow it derails him. But I think that's probably going to be wishful thinking for them.

The other hitch to it is DeSantis, if he somehow clears Trump in a competitive primary, won't be running "clean" against Biden. He will very likely be running against Biden with Trump using every resource he can to undermine DeSantis. Trump doesn't strike me as remotely like someone who would be concerned about the party. Unlike a lot of Republicans, Trump doesn't give one fuck about beating the Democrats unless he is the one to do it. And, given he will feel his personal mob boss mentality on loyalty was violated by DeSantis (his "handpicked" Florida gubernatorial candidate in 2018), I see no reason Trump won't go full spite mode. What that does to the general I don't know, but it would be relatively unprecedented to have a former Republican President going on the war path against the Republican nominee. Particularly one with the megaphone Trump has.

Paradoxically, while I think DeSantis is the better candidate "on spec", because of the reality of Trump--Trump is likely the GOP's real best shot, because Trump will make sure DeSantis can't win if he can't be the nominee.

Could Trump beat Biden head to head?

Sure. 2020 was close, it wouldn't take a lot to move the needle. He likely can't beat Biden in the popular vote, but he doesn't have to do that.