Nethanyahu is apparently saying that with US help, they can "finish the job" with Iran.
How far do you think that conflict is going to escalate?
Quote from: Jacob on February 16, 2025, 02:00:06 PMNethanyahu is apparently saying that with US help, they can "finish the job" with Iran.
Seems naive. I don't think Iran will help Israel and America to take over Gaza, even if the Ayatollahs are cut in on the golf club resorts.
Hard to say, he's already proven to be more crazier and more erratic than his first term. Almost anything could happen
I'm guessing the Israelis are going to do air strikes in Iran this year. The Iranians have had a rough last year, and they've shown that they have no real way to respond to US or Israeli attacks. The failure to respond to the Soleimani killing has left them wide open to attack. They could always do a terrorist attack, but unless it is against a military target they will suffer considerable blow back. And hitting a US or Israeli military target would be tough. The best bet would be a US military base in the Middle East, Africa or the rest of Asia, but those are pretty well guarded. They pulled if off 40 years ago though... Hitting a target in Europe would be... unwise.
Quote from: Jacob on February 16, 2025, 02:00:06 PMNethanyahu is apparently saying that with US help, they can "finish the job" with Iran.
How far do you think that conflict is going to escalate?
The sanctions against Russia are already unofficially lifted and they are free to do commerce with anyone unimpeded.
The US has announced 8 billion$ cuts to the Pentagon, and that includes Africa, where Russia anc China were already moving in to displace the US since 2016.
My guess is China will sell military hardware to Russia and they will resell it to Iran. There's no CIA to watch what is going on in Russia or China anymore and no other intelligence agency with a budget to watch what is going on either if there is US military secrets being stolen and resold to enemies of the US.
This will maximize damage and casualties, create more chaos. If Iran can get its hands on some nukes, or even dirty nukes, it will be fun time for Israel to stop a real terror attack. There likely won't be anymore deployment of a carrier strike group in the Red Sea by this summer.
It'll go as far as necessary to keep netanyahu out of jail.
Might as well keep this seat warm...
I expect the US to attack within the next 3 weeks or so. There is nothing the Iranians can do to prevent this short of Khamenei resigning.
Get a hold of the Epstein files and blackmail Trump?
It's kind of interesting (when putting aside the human and moral implications).
Between the impending action in Iran, the action in Venezuela, and Trump's "Board of Peace" it very much feels like taking internet pundit, over-simplified "why doesn't the US just do X" being taken from internet message boards and acted on in real life.
It'll be very interesting to see how it plays out.
Quote from: Jacob on February 20, 2026, 07:11:46 PMIt's kind of interesting (when putting aside the human and moral implications).
Between the impending action in Iran, the action in Venezuela, and Trump's "Board of Peace" it very much feels like taking internet pundit, over-simplified "why doesn't the US just do X" being taken from internet message boards and acted on in real life.
It'll be very interesting to see how it plays out.
God forbid anyone with any real authority/power is reading our forum. :P
Winter Olympics finish on Sunday so not before then. The F-22's are in place as of 2 days ago, no idea how long the stealth coating lasts before they have to go back to specialized hangars in the US. :hmm:
Why do you think the "stealth coating" doesn't last?
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on February 20, 2026, 09:35:53 PMWhy do you think the "stealth coating" doesn't last?
It's because of Executive Order BS.2112, which stipulates that all air force aircraft must now be regularly polished to a shinny finish, it's how the CIC like to see them.
Quote from: PJL on February 20, 2026, 07:07:46 PMI expect the US to attack within the next 3 weeks or so. There is nothing the Iranians can do to prevent this short of Khamenei resigning.
There are plenty they can do. There are all kinds of ways to pay tribute to the Trump family.
QuoteQuoteI expect the US to attack within the next 3 weeks or so. There is nothing the Iranians can do to prevent this short of Khamenei resigning.
There are plenty they can do. There are all kinds of ways to pay tribute to the Trump family.
'Render unto Caesar ....'
Quote from: Jacob on February 20, 2026, 07:11:46 PMIt's kind of interesting (when putting aside the human and moral implications).
Between the impending action in Iran, the action in Venezuela, and Trump's "Board of Peace" it very much feels like taking internet pundit, over-simplified "why doesn't the US just do X" being taken from internet message boards and acted on in real life.
It'll be very interesting to see how it plays out.
I wouldn't even be surprised if some of Trumps ideas were coming from social media. Maybe his plan to run Venezuela...
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn5gk15rr70o
QuoteTrump curious why Iran has not 'capitulated', US envoy Witkoff says
In his interview with Fox News, Witkoff said: "I don't want to use the word 'frustrated'... because he [Trump] understands he's got plenty of alternatives, but he's curious as to why they haven't... I don't want to use the word 'capitulated', but why they haven't capitulated."
"Why, under this sort of pressure, with the amount of sea power and naval power that we have over there, why haven't they come to us and said, 'We profess that we don't want a weapon, so here's what we're prepared to do?'"
"And yet it's hard to sort of get them to that place," Trump's envoy added.
I know we didn't need more proof...but he is such a fucking idiot.
Witkoff advising Trump, blind leading the blind without either being able to move their arms or legs.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 22, 2026, 03:11:18 PMWitkoff advising Trump, blind leading the blind without either being able to move their arms or legs.
My thinking it is more like Bozo the Clown leading Ronald McDonald.
Quote from: Bauer on February 21, 2026, 11:37:24 AMI wouldn't even be surprised if some of Trumps ideas were coming from social media. Maybe his plan to run Venezuela...
Close: Grok.
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 22, 2026, 03:20:11 PMQuote from: The Minsky Moment on February 22, 2026, 03:11:18 PMWitkoff advising Trump, blind leading the blind without either being able to move their arms or legs.
My thinking it is more like Bozo the Clown leading Ronald McDonald.
The other boneheaded thing about those comments...it is pretty much signaling to the other side that the entire thing is likely just a giant bluff (which it may very well be).
Quote from: viper37 on February 22, 2026, 04:32:16 PMQuote from: Bauer on February 21, 2026, 11:37:24 AMI wouldn't even be surprised if some of Trumps ideas were coming from social media. Maybe his plan to run Venezuela...
Close: Grok.
Hmm well it is probably more intelligent than regular x users ;)
"I don't want to use the word 'capitulated', but why they haven't capitulated."
How can anyone take a "diplomat" seriously when he can't even control the words that come out of his mouth.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 22, 2026, 03:11:18 PMWitkoff advising Trump, blind leading the blind without either being able to move their arms or legs.
But together they can grift billions.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 22, 2026, 05:51:56 PM"I don't want to use the word 'capitulated', but why they haven't capitulated."
How can anyone take a "diplomat" seriously when he can't even control the words that come out of his mouth.
Or keep putins cock out of it
Israel and the United States have started bombing Iran.
Yeah it's kicked off.
Quote from: Zanza on February 28, 2026, 02:45:22 AMIsrael and the United States have started bombing Iran.
The asshole with his board of peace and should have got a peace prize...
The wicked Iranian regime killed thousands of Iranians, so we are going to punish them by killing Iranians and bombing the nuclear sites we obliterated a few months ago.
I don't see the regime falling unless the Israelis have cut a deal with a large faction within it. Maybe the plan is simply to utterly trash the place, blow up all their military factories then declare victory and go home. The horse archer style of international interventions. :hmm:
It's a full on regional war now since Iran is shooting missiles into Bahrain, Quatar and UAE.
Behold Trump, the bringer of Peace.
At least this time the US has a plan for handling the situation in the medium and long term. They wouldn't make the same mistake twice.
So, how are the Saudi oil fields doing? Looks like Alberta might have just solved its deficit problems.
Quote from: HVC on February 28, 2026, 05:01:41 AMBehold Trump, the bringer of Peace.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HCPFg4gbEAQKdbA?format=jpg&name=small)
Trump has decided he'd rather be feared if he can't be loved.
Quote from: The Brain on February 28, 2026, 05:05:38 AMAt least this time the US has a plan for handling the situation in the medium and long term. They wouldn't make the same mistake twice.
^_^
-_-
They do have a plan:
1. Collapse the Iranian regime for not paying tribute and because Bibi does.
2.???
3. Receive tribute from next regime
1. Start war, stay out of prison.
2. There's no second point.
Quote from: HVC on February 28, 2026, 05:01:41 AMBehold Trump, the bringer of Peace.
Ubi solitudinem faciunt pacem appellant? :P
The powerplant supplying Kharg Island was apparently bombed. So no foreign currency for the regime. Rumors the IRGC commander himself was killed plus the defense minister. This evil regime is so comically inept.
QuoteThe powerplant supplying Kharg Island was apparently bombed. So no foreign currency for the regime. Rumors the IRGC commander himself was killed plus the defense minister. This evil regime is so comically inept.
I don't know they've managed to kill the defence minister of a foreign power.
Two national leaders who need a war to stay out of prison, start a war.
Or you can go with the stated reasons which are to destroy a nuclear capability that the orange one said was already destroyed, or the alternative reason which is to kill tens of thousands of Iranians because the Iranian government killed thousands of Iranians.
I have seen reported it as well:
Quotehttps://languish.org/forums/14:54 Le ministre iranien de la Défense et un commandant des Gardiens de la révolution auraient été tués dans les frappes Le ministre iranien de la Défense, Amir Nasirzadeh, et le commandant des Gardiens révolutionnaires, Mohammad Pakpour, auraient été tués lors d'attaques israéliennes, ont déclaré deux sources proches des opérations militaires israéliennes et une source régionale."]14:54 Le ministre iranien de la Défense et un commandant des Gardiens de la révolution auraient été tués dans les frappes Le ministre iranien de la Défense, Amir Nasirzadeh, et le commandant des Gardiens révolutionnaires, Mohammad Pakpour, auraient été tués lors d'attaques israéliennes, ont déclaré deux sources proches des opérations militaires israéliennes et une source régionale.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/en-direct-iran-israel-lance-une-attaque-preventive-plusieurs-explosions-recensees-a-teheran-20260228 (https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/en-direct-iran-israel-lance-une-attaque-preventive-plusieurs-explosions-recensees-a-teheran-20260228)
Israeli sources and a vaguely defined "regional source".
So is this a war or just airstrikes between friends?
Three years down the line, what's the last or least likely place to be bombed?
I was thinking, maybe the California governor's office, but no, more unlikely, but still a possibility, is the Pope's Vatican residency.
Then the answer dawned on me, the Kremlin.
So what are your betting odds for various 'targets' of the insanity?
Any takers for the Canadian PM's home?
Quote from: Razgovory on February 28, 2026, 10:12:18 AMSo is this a war or just airstrikes between friends?
It's the early days of ''god's' wrath from above', as trumpism hollows out ever more US institutions, increasingly the only efficient one left is the US military and navy, so ever more often those will be used to demonstrate trump's magnificent power and manliness.
War aim: Nobel peace prize when Trump stops attacking?
He's padding his stats on the number of wars he stops
God, what a fucking dick move now. Had the chance before the opposition got murdered.
While I'm always happy at the prospect of bad things for the Iranian regime, I don't see any realistic scenario where intensive airstrikes results in regime change.
I think the possibility exists of crippling Iran's IRGC so much that the country becomes destabilized, but at the end of the day the guys with the guns are still the ones loyal to the Ayatollah. Iran's opposition are all disorganized, unarmed civilians. That's not a basis for any kind of regime change. If Iran had any sort of history of armed insurgency that'd be one thing, but the only armed insurgent groups I'm aware of in Iran are all peripheral out in mostly unsettled border regions and tied to small ethnic conflicts not ideological regime change.
Has the US positioned assets for putting boots on the ground? I haven't followed things closely, but my assumption is they haven't.
No. There's been a naval and air power build up. The sort of invasion force to put any serious ground forces in place could not occur in secret, it would instead look like the pre-2003 invasion of Iraq build up, which took months and saw hundreds of thousands of infantry staged in the region. Nothing like that has happened, and if you take JD Vance's word to be worth anything, he was saying as recently as this week that "any sort of U.S. ground presence" was off the table in Iran.
Another important element of staging a large ground invasion force--it would be difficult and probably impossible to do without an AUMF and ensuing funding legislation from Congress, moving ships around is accounted for in the baseline budget, building a true invasion force is not covered by existing appropriations.
Quote from: Jacob on February 28, 2026, 11:19:49 AMHas the US positioned assets for putting boots on the ground? I haven't followed things closely, but my assumption is they haven't.
Iran has twice the population of Iraq, plus much more rugged geography. It's significantly less amenable to rapid mechanized advances I'd assume. I guess you could secure the coast?
(https://www.bluegreenatlas.com/maps/relief_map_of_iran.jpg)
(https://i.ibb.co/Y40rBgYV/image.png)
I have a terrible feeling there is no plan beyond "hope Iran just collapses". Iran has around 4 times the population of 2003 Iraq, and we couldn't pacify that country very well. To occupy Iran would require a draft.
What is the plan if Iran starts attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz?
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 28, 2026, 10:41:29 AMHe's padding his stats on the number of wars he stops
:lol:
Very anemic response from Iran. A few Shaheds, a handful of medium range missiles per intermittent salvo that only serves to piss off the Gulf Arabs. Everything sent towards Israel intercepted. No massive barrages, their C&C must've been effectively suppressed. :hmm:
Quote from: Legbiter on February 28, 2026, 12:30:13 PMVery anemic response from Iran. A few Shaheds, a handful of medium range missiles per intermittent salvo that only serves to piss of the Gulf Arabs. Everything sent towards Israel intercepted. No massive barrages, their C&C must've been effectively suppressed. :hmm:
Yeah? What massive resources could a C&C deploy? They can't do shit unless we send in ground forces. But that has been the case for every conflict we have been in since the Korean War.
Quote from: Syt on February 28, 2026, 11:53:20 AMIran has twice the population of Iraq, plus much more rugged geography. It's significantly less amenable to rapid mechanized advances I'd assume. I guess you could secure the coast?
Yeah, I don't think invading Iran is a good idea for the US for a number of reasons, and I don't expect that's what the Trump regime is planning. I agree with those who think it's more of a "bomb and hope they collapse and/ or make concessions that look good on social media" thing.
Still, I'm trying to understand the US force dispositions. If they haven't pre-positioned much in the way of ground assets (and I don't think they have?), then obviously boots on the ground is much less likely than if they have.
Quote from: Legbiter on February 28, 2026, 12:30:13 PMVery anemic response from Iran. A few Shaheds, a handful of medium range missiles per intermittent salvo that only serves to piss off the Gulf Arabs. Everything sent towards Israel intercepted. No massive barrages, their C&C must've been effectively suppressed. :hmm:
Too many Shaheds sold to Russia for use against Ukraine? :hmm:
Quote from: Valmy on February 28, 2026, 12:32:38 PMYeah? What massive resources could a C&C deploy? They can't do shit unless we send in ground forces. But that has been the case for every conflict we have been in since the Korean War
Sorry I meant Iranian command-and-control. As in they're mostly dead or stuffing suitcases full of loot before GTFO of the country. Kharg Island is offline, the regime artery has been cut. Good luck making payroll for the security services that keep the clerics in place.
Quote from: Legbiter on February 28, 2026, 01:07:02 PMQuote from: Valmy on February 28, 2026, 12:32:38 PMYeah? What massive resources could a C&C deploy? They can't do shit unless we send in ground forces. But that has been the case for every conflict we have been in since the Korean War
Sorry I meant Iranian command-and-control. As in they're mostly dead or stuffing suitcases full of loot before GTFO of the country. Kharg Island is offline, the regime artery has been cut. Good luck making payroll for the security services that keep the clerics in place.
I know. I was questioning how their response would be significantly different otherwise.
The pro-Palestinian movement has now decided that Iranians should not be killed, so there is an upside to this at least.
Quote from: Valmy on February 28, 2026, 01:37:10 PMI know. I was questioning how their response would be significantly different otherwise.
Coordinated medium-range missile barrages and shahed drones numbering a couple hundred each to overwhelm and deplete AA defense. Day after day, week after week. Dubai looking like Bakhmut after a week. LRMs causing havoc in Israel, etc.
Turns out the core competency of the regime is machinegunning unarmed protesters. :hmm: Either the regime goes to play Battlefield with Assad in Moscow or they manage to hang on and continue killing their own people (same old). :hmm:
If the regime actually falls I gotta hand it to Trump, he has an animalistic sense for weakness.
Quote from: Razgovory on February 28, 2026, 01:56:40 PMThe pro-Palestinian movement has now decided that Iranians should not be killed, so there is an upside to this at least.
(https://media.tenor.com/7M4xlWgZotsAAAA1/austin-powers-dr-evil.webp)
From the Beeb.
QuoteIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has just said that there's growing signs that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is "gone".
^_^
Quote from: Tamas on February 28, 2026, 02:44:45 PMQuote from: Razgovory on February 28, 2026, 01:56:40 PMThe pro-Palestinian movement has now decided that Iranians should not be killed, so there is an upside to this at least.
(https://media.tenor.com/7M4xlWgZotsAAAA1/austin-powers-dr-evil.webp)
Right, don't bring up Israel in the Israel is bombing Iran thread. It might upset Zoupa and CC.
QuoteIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has just said that there's growing signs that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is "gone".
Wouldn't matter much...there are plenty of ayatollahs.
Interestingly/oddly...among all the headlines of the attack, I've seen all of "Israel strikes Iran (with U.S. help)", "U.S. strikes Iran (with Israeli help)" and "U.S. and Israel strike Iran".
All I could think of is those patriot missiles and tomahawks would be incredibly more useful to Ukraine. Then the DoD will say sorry Kyiv we can't sell you interceptors for your batteries we gotta replenish our own stocks. Result is more dead Ukrainian civilians.
I put the chance of successful regime change from airstrikes at <1%. It'd be nice...but I think there are too many layers of on-the-ground security forces who appear to pretty much have a monopoly on weaponry and every incentive to hold on to power.
Quote from: Zoupa on February 28, 2026, 03:02:24 PMAll I could think of is those patriot missiles and tomahawks would be incredibly more useful to Ukraine. Then the DoD will say sorry Kyiv we can't sell you interceptors for your batteries we gotta replenish our own stocks. Result is more dead Ukrainian civilians.
Yeah, PAC-3 will be an endangered species when hostilities cease. It's being produced in hilariously small artisanal quantities.
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 28, 2026, 03:00:27 PMWouldn't matter much...there are plenty of ayatollahs.
Interestingly/oddly...among all the headlines of the attack, I've seen all of "Israel strikes Iran (with U.S. help)", "U.S. strikes Iran (with Israeli help)" and "U.S. and Israel strike Iran".
The regime is now cut off from any oil revenue. Doesn't matter if they find another Ayatollah, the Praetorian Guard has to be paid. This is not some gentle benevolent regime change operation, this is Timur making an example of Khwarezm.
Quote from: Legbiter on February 28, 2026, 03:23:15 PMQuote from: Tonitrus on February 28, 2026, 03:00:27 PMWouldn't matter much...there are plenty of ayatollahs.
Interestingly/oddly...among all the headlines of the attack, I've seen all of "Israel strikes Iran (with U.S. help)", "U.S. strikes Iran (with Israeli help)" and "U.S. and Israel strike Iran".
The regime is now cut off from any oil revenue. Doesn't matter if they find another Ayatollah, the Praetorian Guard has to be paid. This is not some gentle benevolent regime change operation, this is Timur making an example of Khwarezm.
Sure, and the Praetorian guard will be able to cannibalize the host for years. The ayatollahs are mostly symbolic figureheads to give legitimacy to the "Islamic Revolutionary" part. The Praetorian guard was already in effective control, and will still be in control.
Sure, they won't get paid...but who will they turn on? Themselves? Nah.
The operation name is also dumbly dangerous. "Epic Fury" is too easy to be lampooned as "Epic Fail".
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 28, 2026, 03:26:31 PMSure, and the Praetorian guard will be able to cannibalize the host for years. The ayatollahs are mostly symbolic figureheads to give legitimacy to the "Islamic Revolutionary" part. The Praetorian guard was already in effective control, and will still be in control.
Sure, they won't get paid...but who will they turn on? Themselves? Nah.
Not disagreeing with you really. We are on the same page, the regime may well just endure even if you end up having to elevate the janitor to Ayatollah/IRGC). But it will rule over a wasteland that will make Somalia seem modern by comparison. It will not fund a Shia axis of resistance, Tehran may not have electricity except for a couple of hours like Cuba. Millions will try to get to anywhere else with say, clean drinking water.
Best case scenario is a military junta takes over who's leader charms Trump enough the US decides to relax sanctions. Rubio takes over as temporary Shāhanshāh.
Khamenei was/is also 86...they probably already had a guy or three in mind as his successor.
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 28, 2026, 03:56:45 PMKhamenei was/is also 86...they probably already had a guy or three in mind as his successor.
The intended successor died two years ago in a helicopter crash. Pretty much any other potential successor, Khameni's son, the head of the IRGC, the head of their intelligence service, and another 10 senior leaders are dead.
Iranians are overwhelmingly secular, and even amongst the shias, the regime represented a fringe millennial cult. Iran's economy had totally collapsed over the last year, mainly because they ran out of water due to mismanagement. This is why the protest had gotten so strong in the last few months. Heck, the President of Iran admitted that they didn't have any solutions to the problem and that Tehran might have to be abandoned.
The oil export money to pay off their supporters was the only real source of revenue left and with that gone they're pretty much done.
If the objective was to strengthen the internal opposition, then the strikes should have been US only and back in early January. It could have made a difference then, and validated Trump's pledge to protect the protestors.
Striking now and with the Israelis in the apparent lead, delegitimizes any internal force that would align with the US or use the strikes as a basis for anti-regime action.
I guess the question one has—is the reason Iran is so hostile to the West because they have a theocratic form of government or is it because they have a revolutionary government founded in opposition to the West?
There's a whole clerical caste in Iran, and they have a process for naming a new Ayatollah. Finding a replacement in that sense is easy. However, the only other time Iran had this transition, they named Khamenei who had long clearly been the successor and who was deeply entrenched in leadership in the revolutionary movement and had been President of Iran.
As in all such regimes the real power are the guys with weapons, they are not likely to make a random cleric who isn't already a significant leader of the regime into the Grand Ayatollah—-a position of considerable constitutional power.
Seems like you may see some sort of military leader explicitly in charge for a while.
"Hopefully, the IRGC and Police will peacefully merge with the Iranian Patriots, and work together as a unit to bring back the Country to the Greatness it deserves"
-Donald J. Trump
Well folks that's the "plan"
From the same people that brought you the "Let's grab Maduro and Then What?" plan for Venezuela.
Remember he said they were going to run Venezuela though :hmm:
What I'm really wondering about now is if terrorism starts rekindling. Any chance Iran has sleeper cells ?
Quote from: Jacob on February 28, 2026, 11:19:49 AMHas the US positioned assets for putting boots on the ground? I haven't followed things closely, but my assumption is they haven't.
I've no idea if this is the case now but I saw something last week comparing the amount of resources the US had moved ino the region. It is vast. But it is comparable with what Clinton used to bomb Saddam in the 90s, not the Gulf Wars or the like.
This whole assassination/kidnapping strategy with world leader or other state actors seems a significant shift. Obviously Israel and the US (and other states) have conducted military assassinations in the past but they have generally been of terrorists or dissidents or similar, but all non-state actors. With Soleimani, this attack, Caracas it seems the taboo against striking leaders and significant officials from other states (and particularly "sovereigns") has gone. I'm not sure where that leads us but it strikes me as a risky shift in world politics - not least because I suspect one of the reasons to avoid it in the past is possibly what OvB is pointing out - who succeeds? What comes next sems highly unpredictable and while I think there were forces in the regime in Venezuela in the know, I'm far less sure that'll be the case here.
I'd add from a European perspective this is not good - but there's nothing Europe can do to actually influence things becaue no power. But we should at least prepare for it - as an energy poor neighbouring region whose politics has already been destabilised by refugee flows (we my be depending more than ever on the good graces and effectiveness of Ankara).
Edit: I should add on the killing heads of state etc point - my assumption there is that this shift doesn't reflect a change in capability/capacity but self-imposed restraint. That this is the sort of thing the US (and perhaps some others) would have been able to do for various heads of state at various points in the past but have chosen not to. It is possible, but it seems unlikely to me, that it's only something they're able to do now for some reason.
DJT does not want to stop Iran's oil exports. Oil is globally traded and if the Chinese get less Iranian oil, they have to bid up the price on the world market.
DJT wants to show that the killed the bad guy and then find someone to do a "deal" with. I.e. someone who will say that they will let US oil companies in and stop the nuclear program. It does not matter whether any of this actually happens as long as someone will get on TV and say the right words.
So the plan is to deal with the IRGC and the rest of the Iranian siloviki, right over the heads of whatever ragtag Iranian opposition might speak up, just like he has sought to deal with the PSUV and has humiliated Machado. That fits the policy objective which is keep oil prices low no matter what and make things as smooth as possible for the kind of corrupt big business corporatism he favors.
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 28, 2026, 03:32:36 PMThe operation name is also dumbly dangerous. "Epic Fury" is too easy to be lampooned as "Epic Fail".
"Epstein Fury" is currently my second favorite.
Had to go to the dentist and was 20 minutes late in spite of leaving early due to large throngs of anti-regime demonstrators. The news said 45 000 locally, and more than 100 000 in Toronto.
As for what happens next, I have no idea. Trump and his advisors obviously subscribe to the swing-your-big-stick-around school of foreign policy, so I expect they'll keep doing it until such a time as it backfires.
Venezuela didn't, so far at least. Will the action in Iran backfire? Time will tell
Sheilbh's point on declaring open season on leaders is interesting. I wonder where it will lead.
I don't really know that leaders have ever been truly "sacrosanct", I think there's always been a willingness to kill them if the conditions were right. I think it's just generally been the case that there was recognition that killing an individual leader is unlikely to produce desired outcomes if it occurs in a vacuum, and certain leaders America has historically wanted dead might have been able to impose immense counterattacks.
There's some obvious examples--several of the Soviet Premiers at various times there was probably a desire by the American President to see that person dead, but the USSR could respond with nuclear weapons and killing a Soviet Premier doesn't make the USSR go away. They actually had a pretty decent process of replacing their top guy.
Saddam before the Iraq War I think the view was he had a long line of succession. He had at least one son who was absolutely positioned to take over. After that Saddam had a number of very high ranking generals who could have viably taken over without serious trouble. Almost all of those people did end up dead, but it was once we'd actually started the invasion. I assume outside the kinetic action of the war, there was an open question as to whether or not a surgical strike would have been able to get them all.
Bush was also concerned with having an American friendly regime, even if he had been able to take out the top half dozen Ba'athists, it wouldn't necessarily be any more likely that a pro-American ends up in charge.
With Iran I assume both the first and second Ayatollahs were considered for killing since at least 1980, but I think there are a number of reasons it was never tried before now.
Right after the revolution I think Reagan didn't want to risk something like Carter did in the failed hostage rescue, in a direct conflict with Iran, that could have been a huge political loss if it turned into a boondoggle. Reagan was also concerned with the more important conflict with the Soviets, and Vietnam's memory loomed large in that era--I think there were just too many uncertainties and bigger fish to fry.
Remember, the U.S. had just had a very pro-U.S. Shah that they thought ruled Iran with an iron fist. His regime fell so rapidly I think it instilled a lot of self doubt about the U.S. ability to monitor the situation on the ground there and likely made the U.S. doubtful any sort of puppet it might attempt to install would be able to survive without essentially a permanent U.S. security backing, which is the sort of Vietnam-esque commitment we were still stringently avoiding in that era.
As both the Cold War and the specter of Vietnam receded, I think the Ayatollah basically got another 20 years because of how badly the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan went, it made military adventurism in the Middle East a toxic political proposition.
Additionally, during that time Iran built a much feared network of militant groups all around the Middle East, and I think there were fears any attempts to take out Iran's government would result in the mass activation of these forces, imperiling Israel and other U.S. allies.
I think one of the things that made this most recent operation seem acceptable to at least some national security experts (my guess is Trump had at least some "adults in the room" that agreed this was a good gamble to take), is the Gaza War. Israel ended up more or less neutering Iran's axis of terror and then exposed Iran's air defense capabilities as being a paper tiger and Israel's ability to rule Iran's skies at will for over 10 days last year likely changed a lot of the thinking on Iranian capabilities with the professional national security types.
I would still guess no contemporary President or even possible President other than Trump does this--because even while I think others would have agreed with the assessment the Ayatollah was gettable, I think most would have serious concerns about what comes next.
The reality is this--Iran has been a revolutionary regime for almost 50 years, its leader was a man who was in his mid 80s. If killing a man in his mid 80s was enough to actually cause regime change, one questions if the regime's fall was almost imminent in any case.
But of course--we have no real indication his death will cause a serious regime change.
I think the Russian weakness and China's not actually interested in being a countermeasure to Imperialism is enabling this behaviour by the USA.
Quote from: Jacob on February 28, 2026, 07:50:15 PMHad to go to the dentist and was 20 minutes late in spite of leaving early due to large throngs of anti-regime demonstrators. The news said 45 000 locally, and more than 100 000 in Toronto.
As for what happens next, I have no idea. Trump and his advisors obviously subscribe to the swing-your-big-stick-around school of foreign policy, so I expect they'll keep doing it until such a time as it backfires.
Venezuela didn't, so far at least. Will the action in Iran backfire? Time will tell
Sheilbh's point on declaring open season on leaders is interesting. I wonder where it will lead.
I imagine it wouldn't be too hard to kill a fat ass on a golf course with a drone. All it would take is some people with expertise in bomb making and drone control and a bit of cash.
Quote from: Razgovory on February 28, 2026, 10:01:52 PMI imagine it wouldn't be too hard to kill a fat ass on a golf course with a drone. All it would take is some people with expertise in bomb making and drone control and a bit of cash.
There are easier ways to kill random fatasses on gold courses than using jury-rigger kamikaze drones.
Considering that kamikaze drones are being used in industrial quantities in Ukraine, I am almost surprised that random drone assassinations haven't already become more common.
Eventually that knowledge will spread out of Ukraine. Could we see gang hits with kamikaze drones flying through open windows soon?
Quote from: grumbler on February 28, 2026, 10:40:56 PMQuote from: Razgovory on February 28, 2026, 10:01:52 PMI imagine it wouldn't be too hard to kill a fat ass on a golf course with a drone. All it would take is some people with expertise in bomb making and drone control and a bit of cash.
There are easier ways to kill random fatasses on gold courses than using jury-rigger kamikaze drones.
Yeah, I'm not thinking random fat asses. This fat asses has been remarkably hard to kill. The Ukrainians smuggled in or built a bunch of drones that destroyed several Russian bombers deep within Russia. There is no reason a country like Iran couldn't do the same thing
I have to imagine said fatass travels with radio scramblers in tow
Quote from: HVC on March 01, 2026, 01:02:35 AMI have to imagine said fatass travels with radio scramblers in tow
Fiberoptic drones are currently used by both sides in the Ukraine war which you can't scramble. Russia could sell/lose a few off a truck.
I am sure national leadership protective services have had lots of agonizing meetings on the whole topic.
Quote from: Fate on March 01, 2026, 01:18:17 AMQuote from: HVC on March 01, 2026, 01:02:35 AMI have to imagine said fatass travels with radio scramblers in tow
Fiberoptic drones are currently used by both sides in the Ukraine war which you can't scramble. Russia could sell/lose a few off a truck.
Why would Russia want to kill their best asset? Whether he's corrupted or just corrupt he's a godsend for Russia.
Quote from: Bauer on February 28, 2026, 11:31:04 PMEventually that knowledge will spread out of Ukraine. Could we see gang hits with kamikaze drones flying through open windows soon?
It's already happened in Mexico. Cartel wars used fpv drones to strike rival members.
Quote from: Bauer on February 28, 2026, 11:31:04 PMEventually that knowledge will spread out of Ukraine. Could we see gang hits with kamikaze drones flying through open windows soon?
Mexican gangs have been using drones to off people, apoarently
Decapitation of the evil Iranian regime is great. Let's hope that something good arises from that.
A win for the Russians as oil prices are going to rise. A lot.
Trump has just ensured that they have the funds needed.
Quote from: Zanza on March 01, 2026, 04:56:36 AMDecapitation of the evil Iranian regime is great. Let's hope that something good arises from that.
I'd mostly be concerned that after dismantling the government infrastructure and getting rid of a number of senior leaders (good riddance to them) this turns into another civil war quagmire.
Quote from: Syt on March 01, 2026, 07:25:50 AMQuote from: Zanza on March 01, 2026, 04:56:36 AMDecapitation of the evil Iranian regime is great. Let's hope that something good arises from that.
I'd mostly be concerned that after dismantling the government infrastructure and getting rid of a number of senior leaders (good riddance to them) this turns into another civil war quagmire.
and lets not forget they border Afghanistan too...
The ongoing Pakistani blowback from Afghanistan is really interesting too.
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 01, 2026, 07:55:48 AMThe ongoing Pakistani blowback from Afghanistan is really interesting too.
Is this the most predictable betrayal in history?
Anyways, an oil tanker was hit off of Oman
https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/03/01/first-oil-tanker-attacked-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-according-to-oman
Whether or not assassination of foreign leaders is a wise policy or not, it is a significant and consequential one. It's not a great sign that the neither the President nor any high-ranking American official has made a live national address. It only reinforces the sense that the administration does not want to or cannot give a rational explanation for the policy, either it to its own constituency, to America as a whole, or the rest of the world which is watching this.
I suppose it's possible there is some "Secret Plan" unfolding behind the scenes, but it certainly seems like this just a more elaborate and expensive Venezuela Part 2. American foreign policy is devolving to the South Park underpants gnomes stage.
Quote from: Fate on March 01, 2026, 01:18:17 AMQuote from: HVC on March 01, 2026, 01:02:35 AMI have to imagine said fatass travels with radio scramblers in tow
Fiberoptic drones are currently used by both sides in the Ukraine war which you can't scramble. Russia could sell/lose a few off a truck.
The Ukrainians have had multiple attacks foiled by radio jammers. And a fiber-optic drone has a very short range. You can bet that the Secret Service has plans to counter such an attack.
I think Witkoff may have revealed more than he intended when he said that Trump was curious about why Iran has not capitulated. They are supposed to give in, but so far they haven't and it seems that the straits of Hormuz are now effectively closed. That is 20m barrels of oil a day or thereabouts. What is the Great Helmsman and Light of the USA going to do about that?
The Iranian strategy given what's happened today seems to be just going through the most highly rated hotels in the Gulf on Tripadvisor and then blowing them up via shaheds. Same with airports. And then wait for the Gulf Arabs to put pressure on the US.
*edit* Also fired ballistic missiles toward Cyprus (shot down by the Brits) and attacks by shaheds on the French naval base at Abu Dhabi.
Active US servicemen have now died.
I hope that all the people who voted for Trump and I hope that he would not start any more wars turn against him.
Quote from: Legbiter on March 01, 2026, 12:27:49 PMThe Iranian strategy given what's happened today seems to be just going through the most highly rated hotels in the Gulf on Tripadvisor and then blowing them up via shaheds. Same with airports. And then wait for the Gulf Arabs to put pressure on the US.
Some people over here are making fun, more like Schadenfreude, of dumb Persian Gulf-based Western influencers discovering the instability of the Middle East.
Quote*edit* Also fired ballistic missiles toward Cyprus (shot down by the Brits) and attacks by shaheds on the French naval base at Abu Dhabi.
Cyprus? Quite optimistic. Striking by mistake Turkish-occupied Northern Cyprus would be ironic.
At this rate I expect Trump to drop a tactical nuke on Kim Jong Un's head by summer.
Quote from: Zanza on March 01, 2026, 04:56:36 AMDecapitation of the evil Iranian regime is great. Let's hope that something good arises from that.
I don't know man. They keep acting like if we just kill off a few more guys in charge everything will be fine.
We have been doing that for decades and everything has yet to be fine. But we'll see. Maybe these were the last few guys who needed killing.
I don't think there is any shortage of militant ayatollahs. Any regime change will require parts or most of the Revolutionary guard to throw in the towel; we have recently witnessed their brutality and willingness to kill thousands to keep the Islamic Republic going....if they do give up then their own lives will be on the line :hmm:
Quote from: Valmy on March 01, 2026, 01:53:47 PMQuote from: Zanza on March 01, 2026, 04:56:36 AMDecapitation of the evil Iranian regime is great. Let's hope that something good arises from that.
I don't know man. They keep acting like if we just kill off a few more guys in charge everything will be fine.
We have been doing that for decades and everything has yet to be fine. But we'll see. Maybe these were the last few guys who needed killing.
If you keep killing the bad replacements eventually a good one will show up, right? Like skimming the fat off the top of a pot. That's how politics works, isn't it :unsure:
I am sure we will eventually skim off enough until we find some seemingly pliant IRGC/ayatollah figurehead who will lead just-as-before oppressive regime that pays sufficient lip service to Trump while at the same time plotting revenge for our future leaders to have to deal with.
Or they can go to Russia...the more militant propagandists there have already invited the IRGC to come fight in Ukraine. :P
Quote from: Zanza on February 28, 2026, 12:22:17 PMWhat is the plan if Iran starts attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz?
It's happening right now, so we'll know very soon.
Keep bombing shit and sink ships.
Quote from: Tonitrus on March 01, 2026, 02:22:41 PMI am sure we will eventually skim off enough until we find some seemingly pliant IRGC/ayatollah figurehead who will lead just-as-before oppressive regime that pays sufficient lip service to Trump while at the same time plotting revenge for our future leaders to have to deal with.
Or they can go to Russia...the more militant propagandists there have already invited the IRGC to come fight in Ukraine. :P
Yeah what are far right Russian Euro supporters going to say when Islamic soldiers are invading Europe with his support? :hmm:
Didn't see it mentioned here, but Ahmadinejad was also whacked. Not sure why he was still of interest, I thought he wasn't an entity anymore, and was actually at odds with the clerics since his presidency?
Quote from: grumbler on March 01, 2026, 12:12:05 PMThe Ukrainians have had multiple attacks foiled by radio jammers. And a fiber-optic drone has a very short range. You can bet that the Secret Service has plans to counter such an attack.
Yeah I expect the president is a very hard target.
Were I looking to shock the American establishment with assassinations in response to attacks on my nation, I'd consider the various billionaires who fund and direct the Trump administration. I expect they have less tight security than the president and that targeting them would be pretty high impact.
Quote from: DGuller on March 01, 2026, 02:41:19 PMDidn't see it mentioned here, but Ahmadinejad was also whacked. Not sure why he was still of interest, I thought he wasn't an entity anymore, and was actually at odds with the clerics since his presidency?
I also heard the same thing. I also wasn't clear if he was specifically targetted, and why, or if he just happened to be killed.
Quote from: DGuller on March 01, 2026, 02:41:19 PMNot sure why he was still of interest,
To make sure the regime is destabilized as much as possible, no one they can easily turn to for a leadership role in the immediate aftermath of the strikes.
Quote from: viper37 on March 01, 2026, 02:43:53 PMQuote from: DGuller on March 01, 2026, 02:41:19 PMNot sure why he was still of interest,
To make sure the regime is destabilized as much as possible, no one they can easily turn to for a leadership role in the immediate aftermath of the strikes.
Was he even in the running?
Anyway destabilizing a place just means the most psychotic thug takes charge. I don't know why that would be better.
Or he could have just chosen the wrong bunker at the wrong time.
Ahmadinejad from what I understand was so unpopular with the regime he was at risk of being arrested / executed at one point, it seems like they eventually just opted to leave him alone. He certainly wasn't on any list of people to move in and start running the regime--no matter how long it was. But he may have been on some list of targets that was made without any real consideration to that reality.
Ahmadinejad was a bad dude so certainly not going to shed tears over him, but if he was deliberately targeted vs just being in the "wrong bunker" with other high value targets, it would seem to be a misread of his position in Iran.
It's also possible it was Israel that killed him, my understanding is they have more personal antipathy to him for his Holocaust denialism and other antisemitic rhetoric.
Quote from: Jacob on February 28, 2026, 07:50:15 PMHad to go to the dentist and was 20 minutes late in spite of leaving early due to large throngs of anti-regime demonstrators. The news said 45 000 locally, and more than 100 000 in Toronto.
Yeah I am slightly torn.
My instinct is conservative and better the devil you know.
But there was footage of Iranians and Jews celebrating together in the streets of Finchley (suburb in North London). And today I went to get my haircut and was chatting with the barber who was Syrian. He wasn't necessarily pro-bombing but just said that his country was destroyed by war and that man (Khamenei) sent the bombs and "mafia" who did it. And I'm not going to argue against those views.
The other side I suppose is all the footage of Bahrainis rocking up at the US base to cheer and laugh at them getting bombed.
Yeah, we have a close friend who's Persian. Her response was basically "today I'm getting out the Champagne to celebrate that that asshole is dead! Tomorrow I'll worry about what happens next."
Seen on TV Iranian refugees celebrating Khamenei's death in Portugal.
It would be fantastic if the end result was a half-decent, or better, regime for Iran. I just feel that is rather unlikely :(
Well, we will see.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on March 01, 2026, 03:15:55 PMSeen on TV Iranian refugees celebrating Khamenei's death in Portugal.
Yeah well good for them
Quote from: Jacob on March 01, 2026, 03:06:22 PMYeah, we have a close friend who's Persian. Her response was basically "today I'm getting out the Champagne to celebrate that that asshole is dead! Tomorrow I'll worry about what happens next."
a sensible sentiment
How many times do we have to play this old record? Crowds cheering the fall of Saddam, the fall of Qadaffi. And then what. What makes it even less optimistic is that there is literally no armed or organized opposition force on the ground, as distinct from the US Army in Iraq and powerful armed militias in Syria and Libya. There is literally nothing on the ground to take advantage of any regime weakness.
It's just nuts watching these MAGA people spend years lecturing the old Bush neocons on how naive they were to think they could blow stuff up in the Middle East and hope that something magical will happen only to rally around and cheer they same thing all over again, only less organized and thought through.
Britain is going to hurry in Ukrainian experts to the Gulf to help deal with the drone swarms.
https://x.com/Tendar/status/2028230160701342014 (https://x.com/Tendar/status/2028230160701342014)
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 01, 2026, 04:52:22 PMHow many times do we have to play this old record? Crowds cheering the fall of Saddam, the fall of Qadaffi. And then what. What makes it even less optimistic is that there is literally no armed or organized opposition force on the ground, as distinct from the US Army in Iraq and powerful armed militias in Syria and Libya. There is literally nothing on the ground to take advantage of any regime weakness.
It's just nuts watching these MAGA people spend years lecturing the old Bush neocons on how naive they were to think they could blow stuff up in the Middle East and hope that something magical will happen only to rally around and cheer they same thing all over again, only less organized and thought through.
I think my wake up moment was when they interviewed one of the dudes who ripped down the Saddam statue and was all over the news back in 2003. And he lamented that things were actually better before we overthrew Saddam. Damn we even lost the statue ripping down guy.
Diaspora Persians often have quite different views than on the ground Iranians, too. See also: Cubans.
Doesn't make them wrong.
Quote from: Tamas on March 01, 2026, 06:36:00 PMDoesn't make them wrong.
It is not a question of them being wrong. It is a question as to whether killing this horrible man will actually do any good. History suggests no.
But maybe this time...
Incidentally it looks like these strikes have been targeting Basij HQs too which definitely suggests they're hoping for some form of regime change/revolution after this.
Also striking that Iran's retaliation has included strikes on Oman and Qatar who are the most friendly Gulf States - Oman has hosted many of the talks with Iran over the years. Iran's Foreign Minister has said the strike on Oman was not their choice and they have told the armed forces to be careful about the targets they choose. But the armed forces are currently independent, somewhat isolated and acting based on general instructions given to them in advance.
Ahmadinejad is back from the dead for now, according to Wiki.
Quote from: Jacob on March 01, 2026, 03:06:22 PMYeah, we have a close friend who's Persian. Her response was basically "today I'm getting out the Champagne to celebrate that that asshole is dead! Tomorrow I'll worry about what happens next."
Here is the scene from North Vancouver.
And yes, now the worry is what will happen next.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DVWXK1gjuiF/?igsh=MXhpMHBwaTR2eHlncQ==
Quote from: Sophie Scholl on March 01, 2026, 05:53:40 PMDiaspora Persians often have quite different views than on the ground Iranians, too. See also: Cubans.
What information do you have regarding the views of most Iranians on the ground in Iran?
And for context, here are some Iranians on the ground. Looks similar to the Iranians in North Vancouver.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DVUwUASji9w/?igsh=MWNnNXJwc2RkbDhkYw==
Here is Tehran
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTVmxF1k6og/?igsh=MTJhenJvcHE3NmNpZQ==
Quote from: DGuller on March 01, 2026, 08:31:04 PMAhmadinejad is back from the dead for now, according to Wiki.
Ahmadinebackfromthedead?
https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-us-03-02-2026-cb42936de1d8c261be8f30f11c6665fa
Quote[...]
Gulf Arab states have warned that they could retaliate against Iran after strikes that hit key sites and killed at least five civilians, and U.S. President Donald Trump promised Washington would "avenge" the deaths of three American troops who were killed in Kuwait.
"Sadly, there will likely be more before it ends," Trump said. "That's the way it is."
[...]
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/473/877/421.gif)
Quote[...]
Trump has urged Iranians to "take over" their government and, while he has also signaled he would be open to dialogue with new leadership there following the death of Khamenei, suggested Sunday there was no end in sight to the military operations.
"Combat operations continue at this time in full-force, and they will continue until all of our objectives are achieved," he said in a video message. "We have very strong objectives," he added, without elaborating.
[...]
So I guess they just asked the military to draw up a list of strategic targets and are now working down the list? I mean, I get it in a "We're tired of their shit and want to cripple them for good" way ... but this is not a video game.
Is the Peace Prize really a strong objective?
Saudi Aramco refinery was just hit with shahed drones. At this point the asymmetry in cost between 70k drones and Pac-3 missiles (several million per missile) becomes obvious. You need cheap, plentiful radar-guided ack-ack like the Ukrainians employ. :hmm:
https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2028369512119046632 (https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2028369512119046632)
Ukrainian skills might become really wanted now. And I'm sure they'll come at a premium cost.
Kuwaiti air defense shot down at least 1 American F-15.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2028336659314425950 (https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2028336659314425950)
Kuwaiti ministry of defense says "several" US warplanes have crashed.
https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2028379370637959515 (https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2028379370637959515)
Did Russia say or do anything so far? I can't imagine them letting their most important remaining ally just get pummeled without doing anything, if they're able to.
Quote from: DGuller on March 02, 2026, 07:13:25 AMDid Russia say or do anything so far? I can't imagine them letting their most important remaining ally just get pummeled without doing anything, if they're able to.
Yes.
Executive summary:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HCSawsbbkAE56W9?format=jpg&name=small)
Quote from: Valmy on March 01, 2026, 02:34:47 PMQuote from: Tonitrus on March 01, 2026, 02:22:41 PMI am sure we will eventually skim off enough until we find some seemingly pliant IRGC/ayatollah figurehead who will lead just-as-before oppressive regime that pays sufficient lip service to Trump while at the same time plotting revenge for our future leaders to have to deal with.
Or they can go to Russia...the more militant propagandists there have already invited the IRGC to come fight in Ukraine. :P
Yeah what are far right Russian Euro supporters going to say when Islamic soldiers are invading Europe with his support? :hmm:
I remember Zemmour being shocked when he discovered Moscow's islamist Chechens fighting in Ukraine, for Kadyrov and the Kremlin, chanted every now and Allahu Akbar! :P
Kuwait shot down...3 F-15's today. Friendly fire.
Sure Russia won't get those drones but their budget and economy is getting rescued as we speak.
Quote from: Tamas on March 02, 2026, 07:52:24 AMSure Russia won't get those drones but their budget and economy is getting rescued as we speak.
Yep, so thanks for that trump 🙄
Qatar halting LNG production is probably the most serious economic threat caused by the current hostilities. As a result natural gas prices are up sharply (42%).
Greece is sending warships to help defend Cyprus from Persian attack.
Quote from: PJL on March 02, 2026, 08:59:44 AMQatar halting LNG production is probably the most serious economic threat caused by the current hostilities. As a result natural gas prices are up sharply (42%).
Europe fucked in the ass again. Shit politicians who shuffle a lot of dossiers this way and that but are never ready for anything.
Plus assorted other idiots.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 02, 2026, 09:34:38 AMShit politicians who shuffle a lot of dossiers this way and that but are never ready for anything.
Being ready doesn't matter. There is a finite quantity of traded gas. If the Gulf closes prices go up. No way to get around that, other than by transitioning completely away from fossil fuels.
If more prepared European politicians could come up with some mechanism for neutralizing Trump's mindlessness, a lot of us in the United States would love to hear it.
Quote from: Legbiter on March 02, 2026, 07:50:40 AMKuwait shot down...3 F-15's today. Friendly fire.
I don't understand that could happen. Surely before beginning such a major military effort, the Pentagon would have carefully planned and coordinated with allies and friendly affected states. . . oh wait
The Kuwaitis were close. Just one number off.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 02, 2026, 09:55:32 AMI don't understand that could happen. Surely before beginning such a major military effort, the Pentagon would have carefully planned and coordinated with allies and friendly affected states. . . oh wait
The Kuwaitis were close. Just one number off.
The US doesn't need allies anymore, why would we have to coordinate with anybody?
How realistic is it to build up a large enough stockpiles of LNG to ride out storms ( ie americas mood swings)?although I guess at this point you've got a horse and barn door scenario.
The EU is currently consuming about 13 billion cubic meters of LNG per month.
I asked Gemini how much it costs to store 1 billion cubic meters (so treat the results with a grain of salt)
Answer is $150 million per month for on the water storage, or about $3 billion to construct permanent storage tanks. Which translates to about $2 billion in monthly cost for each month of consumption covered or close to $40 billion for a permanent storage solution. Again, that covers just a single month's usage.
I'm not aware of any long-term LNG storage facilities anywhere in the world. The system is designed to compress the natural gas into a liquid form for transport, and store it temporarily so that it is available when the ships pull in to load it and send it to its destination, or alternatively to send it down a pipeline to end users.
And user storage is similarly short-term in nature.
It's literally a flow through system.
It does seem like living with the spot price fluctuations is the only option. In theory you could try a financial hedge but the scale is so big it would tough to find a reliable counterparty and the costs would be very high.
EU is already pursuing lowering total gas demand because of Russia. If there is any blame to throw out in terms of preparation it would be not pushing nuclear harder.
I see, thanks. I recall Canada recently started shipping LNG out of BC. Wonder why it took so long, and why we don't ship out to Europe. Probably valid reasons, but I'll bring out the classic and blame Quebec with or without reason :P . I actually worked for a company that produced portable chilling units to facilitate the trapping of gasses from oil extraction instead of burning it off.
I joke with sheilbh, but given the shit going down south of the border we (Canada) really should have invested in our export infrastructure.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 02, 2026, 10:24:34 AMIf there is any blame to throw out in terms of preparation it would be not pushing nuclear harder.
See Norge, it's always the greens fault :P
Quote from: HVC on March 02, 2026, 10:26:21 AMSee Norge, it's always the greens fault :P
Except that without the greens, renewable capacity would be much lower, and then you'd really be screwed . . .
You just need more pro-nuclear radical environmentalists. Surely you can cobble a political majority on that platform.
The Green Party in Ontario has recently changed their tune regarding nuke power I believe. But I don't follow that end of the political spectrum enough to know why and how entrenched the new view is.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 02, 2026, 10:27:44 AMQuote from: HVC on March 02, 2026, 10:26:21 AMSee Norge, it's always the greens fault :P
Except that without the greens, renewable capacity would be much lower, and then you'd really be screwed . . .
You just need more pro-nuclear radical environmentalists. Surely you can cobble a political majority on that platform.
Germany led the world in solar panels right up until solar panels became a mainstream and successful technology...when they promptly gave up completely and let the Chinese take over. I never understood that, you subsidize this tech for decades right up until it becomes profitable than just...stop?
Quote from: Valmy on March 02, 2026, 10:30:38 AMQuote from: The Minsky Moment on March 02, 2026, 10:27:44 AMQuote from: HVC on March 02, 2026, 10:26:21 AMSee Norge, it's always the greens fault :P
Except that without the greens, renewable capacity would be much lower, and then you'd really be screwed . . .
You just need more pro-nuclear radical environmentalists. Surely you can cobble a political majority on that platform.
Germany led the world in solar panels right up until solar panels became a mainstream and successful technology...when they promptly gave up completely and let the Chinese take over. I never understood that, you subsidize this tech for decades right up until it becomes profitable than just...stop?
Russian fossil fuel lobby (bribe) money, maybe ?
Quote from: Valmy on March 02, 2026, 10:30:38 AMI never understood that, you subsidize this tech for decades right up until it becomes profitable than just...stop?
it wasn't profitable at the prices charged by the cheap Chinese imports.
(https://yt3.ggpht.com/LSxYMo8wDTflWkyjP09JtXpEF38xxLEvglWjDwpIHERuVRwtdIRtbP4fbM90WRmwUEnMi3NULOx0uA=s640-rw-nd-v1)
Morale might be kind of low for this war.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 02, 2026, 10:42:35 AMQuote from: Valmy on March 02, 2026, 10:30:38 AMI never understood that, you subsidize this tech for decades right up until it becomes profitable than just...stop?
it wasn't profitable at the prices charged by the cheap Chinese imports.
Seems weird to give up though after decades of subsidies. And for Germany, a country that desperately has needed alternative energy for at least a century. What happened to fortress Europe keeping out the cheap stuff?
Quote from: Legbiter on March 02, 2026, 07:50:40 AMKuwait shot down...3 F-15's today. Friendly fire.
With friends like these...
Quote from: DGuller on March 02, 2026, 10:53:52 AMQuote from: Legbiter on March 02, 2026, 07:50:40 AMKuwait shot down...3 F-15's today. Friendly fire.
With friends like these...
Fortunately the crews were all recovered safely.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 02, 2026, 09:55:32 AMQuote from: Legbiter on March 02, 2026, 07:50:40 AMKuwait shot down...3 F-15's today. Friendly fire.
I don't understand that could happen. Surely before beginning such a major military effort, the Pentagon would have carefully planned and coordinated with allies and friendly affected states. . . oh wait
The Kuwaitis were close. Just one number off.
It's not implausible that the Emir phone phoned his buddy, trump and asked for a favour/help and trump ordered/demanded the air force send in fighters to shot down the drones; no time for co-ordination and the Kuwaitis not having much experience, the rest is history for those jets.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HCYqa_5WEAEVZO1?format=jpg&name=small)
Pilot explaining he's not an Iranian.
QuoteStarmer: 'This government does not believe in regime change from the skies'
I wonder if he's listened to trump / nuttyarenow? :hmm:
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 02, 2026, 10:19:33 AMI'm not aware of any long-term LNG storage facilities anywhere in the world. The system is designed to compress the natural gas into a liquid form for transport, and store it temporarily so that it is available when the ships pull in to load it and send it to its destination, or alternatively to send it down a pipeline to end users.
And user storage is similarly short-term in nature.
It's literally a flow through system.
I think this is correct, there is long term gaseous storage of NG in the United States, where the NG storage industry is a decently large industry. But it isn't stored in liquid form and it's generally stored in underground chambers from which it had previously been extracted (and thus naturally remains sealed away when it is pumped back in.)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/02/uk-airbases-us-attack-iran-trump-starmer
Like I have said elsewhere UK is probably going to force the US to just unilaterally annex Diego Garcia. The Labour government's belief in the importance of fictitious international legal analyses to put the base at risk is not intelligent, and the U.S. isn't going to give a key military base to some random African country with no valid claim to it.
QuoteUK 'took far too long' to let US use its airbases to attack Iran, Trump says
US president also 'very disappointed' in Keir Starmer over UK government's deal to hand Chagos Islands to Mauritius
The UK "took far too long" to allow US forces to use its airbases to attack Iran, Donald Trump has said.
The US president added that he was "very disappointed" in Keir Starmer over the British government's deal to hand sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius as a means to preserve the status of the UK-US airbase on Diego Garcia, part of the Indian Ocean archipegalo.
The Chagos deal, which Trump initially supported before changing his mind, was a "very woke thing", the US president argued.
While Starmer and his ministers did not openly oppose Saturday's initial wave of US-Israeli attacks on Iran, which killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's supreme leader, they did not allow US forces to use Diego Garcia or any UK airbases because of doubts about the legality of the strikes.
On Sunday evening, however, Starmer said this position had changed given that Iran had launched a wave of retaliatory missile and drone attacks on a range of targets in the Middle East, with one hitting a UK airbase in Cyprus.
Speaking to the Daily Telegraph, Trump said Starmer was too slow to change his mind, adding: "It took far too much time. Far too much time.
"That's probably never happened between our countries before. It sounds like he was worried about the legality."
The UK should have immediately allowed Diego Garcia to be used, Trump added, because Iran was responsible for killing a "lot of people from your country".
"[There are] people without arms and legs and faces that have been blown up. Iran is 95% of those. Those horrible events were caused by Iran," the president said, without elaborating on what he meant.
The UK government bill to formalise the deal with Mauritius is paused at its final stage in parliament after Trump changed his mind. Starmer has said that the plan will not go ahead without US agreement.
While Trump had previously criticised the plan, which is backed by the US state department, early in February he had described it as the "best" deal Starmer could make in the circumstances.
But in a change of heart later that month, the US president said on social media that Keir Starmer was "making a big mistake" by handing sovereignty of the islands to Mauritius in exchange for continued use by the UK and US of their airbase on one of the islands, Diego Garcia.
"All of a sudden [Mauritius] was claiming ownership," Trump told the British newspaper. "He should have fought it out and owned it or [made them] take it, if you want to know the truth. But no, we were very disappointed in Keir."
He added: "It would have been much better on the legal front if he just kept the ownership of the land and not given it to people that weren't the rightful owners."
On the strikes against Iran, Trump said the operation was "well ahead of schedule", adding: "We always anticipated four weeks. We also anticipated two to three weeks to take out some of the leadership, but we've taken out all of it in one day. So that was well ahead of schedule. We always viewed it as a four-week operation."
Trump has been vague about what the goals of the military strikes are, saying that the aim is for the Iranian people to rise up, but also talking about the idea of holding talks with successors to Khamenei.
While Trump peppered his statements with a number of low information and low intelligence falsehoods (as per the norm) proving that even an imbecile is sometimes right, he correctly notes that Mauritius has no valid claim to these islands and the UK is being quite stupid in accepting fictitious claims.
German newsticker this morning:
Quote8:43am - [German Foreign Minister] rules out military evacuation of travelers
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul (CDU) has ruled out a military evacuation of German travelers currently stranded in the Gulf region due to the war. "We won't be able to do that, because the airspace is completely closed," Wadephul told the Bild newspaper. It is currently impossible to predict when those affected will be able to leave. The German Travel Association put the number of affected German travelers in the region at around 30,000. This figure refers to travelers with German tour operators who are currently in the region or have flights via hubs in the area.
8:47am - Britain prepares to evacuate citizens
Britain is preparing to evacuate its citizens from the Middle East. An estimated 300,000 Britons have registered their presence in the region, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper told Sky News. The government is working on various options, including cooperation with the travel industry and state-organized evacuations. Intervention forces have also been deployed to the region.
German commenters say whoever ran the ticker knew what they were doing posting the news in this order. :P
At least they later changed their mind:
Quote2:20pm - German government plans to send planes for evacuation
The German government is preparing to send planes to the Middle East to bring stranded German tourists home. The aircraft are to be sent to Muscat in Oman and the Saudi capital, Riyadh, explained Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul. He stated that the airspace there is still open, but safety is the top priority for the deployment. He added that he had spoken with Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr, and that the airline has the necessary capacity.
Tagesschau.de also reports that France wants to increase its number of nuclear warheads, and:
QuoteMacron to Expand Nuclear Umbrella
France aims to reach an agreement with eight allied countries, including Germany and the United Kingdom, on extending its nuclear umbrella to encompass Europe. "Contacts have been established with an initial group of allies, starting, of course, with our most important partner, Germany," Macron said in a keynote address on France's nuclear deterrence. The other interested countries are Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden, and Denmark. Specifically, Macron suggested that partners could participate in French nuclear exercises. Furthermore, strategic elements could be temporarily redeployed to the allies. French air forces could also be deployed further into Europe.
I think that Iran and Venezuela have shown the US leadership has succumbed to CEO disease, thinking the only important person is the one in charge.
Once the leader is removed you can easily install someone you can control or whoever the replacement is will accede to your demands out of fear for their life. That just doesn't work.
Quote from: frunk on March 02, 2026, 12:03:40 PMI think that Iran and Venezuela have shown the US leadership has succumbed to CEO disease, thinking the only important person is the one in charge.
Once the leader is removed you can easily install someone you can control or whoever the replacement is will accede to your demands out of fear for their life. That just doesn't work.
I don't hear anything from the American rule of Venezuela, so it probably goes smoothly.
Quote from: Syt on March 02, 2026, 12:02:42 PMTagesschau.de also reports that France wants to increase its number of nuclear warheads, and:
QuoteMacron to Expand Nuclear Umbrella
France aims to reach an agreement with eight allied countries, including Germany and the United Kingdom, on extending its nuclear umbrella to encompass Europe. "Contacts have been established with an initial group of allies, starting, of course, with our most important partner, Germany," Macron said in a keynote address on France's nuclear deterrence. The other interested countries are Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden, and Denmark. Specifically, Macron suggested that partners could participate in French nuclear exercises. Furthermore, strategic elements could be temporarily redeployed to the allies. French air forces could also be deployed further into Europe.
I was about to post a more detailed on the French thread. Just dit it.
https://languish.org/forums/index.php/topic,16371.1080.html (https://languish.org/forums/index.php/topic,16371.1080.html)
Quote from: Syt on March 02, 2026, 12:02:42 PMTagesschau.de also reports that France wants to increase its number of nuclear warheads,
Macron aura farming as the kids say when announcing this.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HCaclT2XYAEKsBr?format=jpg&name=small)
DJT told Jonathan Karl that they had identified "candidates" in advance to take over Iran once Khamenei was removed.
He then explained: "The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates. It's not going to anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
Idiocracy was not satire; it was a soberly understated documentary that projected out centuries too long.
Quote from: Valmy on March 02, 2026, 10:52:45 AMQuote from: The Minsky Moment on March 02, 2026, 10:42:35 AMQuote from: Valmy on March 02, 2026, 10:30:38 AMI never understood that, you subsidize this tech for decades right up until it becomes profitable than just...stop?
it wasn't profitable at the prices charged by the cheap Chinese imports.
Seems weird to give up though after decades of subsidies. And for Germany, a country that desperately has needed alternative energy for at least a century. What happened to fortress Europe keeping out the cheap stuff?
A conservative government. They destroyed that industry in the same year they decided to phase out nuclear energy.
Geniuses.
15 years later and they are just doing the same thing. Moving away from renewables to fossils. Conservatives here are utterly retarded on energy policy.
It does suggest a very personalized view of state to state interaction: States are an extension of the leader. You do things to the state to force the leader to comply; if you kill the leader then that's the ultimate sanction. The state and the population is almost incidental.
It'll be interesting to see how that view holds up.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 02, 2026, 10:24:34 AMIt does seem like living with the spot price fluctuations is the only option. In theory you could try a financial hedge but the scale is so big it would tough to find a reliable counterparty and the costs would be very high.
EU is already pursuing lowering total gas demand because of Russia. If there is any blame to throw out in terms of preparation it would be not pushing nuclear harder.
The sensible thing would be to invest massively into renewables, storage, transmission and electrify the economy, transport, and private heating. The only way to gain energy independence for Europe is solar and wind power.
Quote from: Jacob on March 02, 2026, 12:45:58 PMIt does suggest a very personalized view of state to state interaction: States are an extension of the leader. You do things to the state to force the leader to comply; if you kill the leader then that's the ultimate sanction. The state and the population is almost incidental.
It'll be interesting to see how that view holds up.
A very 17th century view.
Quote from: Jacob on March 02, 2026, 12:45:58 PMIt does suggest a very personalized view of state to state interaction: States are an extension of the leader. You do things to the state to force the leader to comply; if you kill the leader then that's the ultimate sanction. The state and the population is almost incidental.
It'll be interesting to see how that view holds up.
Not surprising in a country run by maybe the greatest narcissist alive.
I like how the Greens and Schröder (Herr Gazprom who called Putin a perfect democrat) are completely blameless on the whole nuclear affair in Germany. :lol:
Whereas a single opportunistic and demagogic "Conservative" leader, reneging conservative policies, serves as a strawman for the whole German conservatives, themselves in uneasy coalitions most of the time.
Quote from: Zanza on March 02, 2026, 12:45:58 PMThe sensible thing would be to invest massively into renewables, storage, transmission and electrify the economy, transport, and private heating. The only way to gain energy independence for Europe is solar and wind power.
The only way is not correct, both nuclear and coal is possible, with some input from oil, gas and hydro. Solar and wind is never going to cut it except as (important) complements to a good base supply.
Quote from: Jacob on March 02, 2026, 12:45:58 PMIt does suggest a very personalized view of state to state interaction
That has always been Trump's characteristic approach to foreign policy. It's all about the relationship between him as a person and the top leader of the other country. It's why he is most comfortable dealing with dictators where the individual personality is dominant, and least comfortable dealing with free democratic states where the leader is a public servant.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 02, 2026, 01:37:19 PMThat has always been Trump's characteristic approach to foreign policy. It's all about the relationship between him as a person and the top leader of the other country. It's why he is most comfortable dealing with dictators where the individual personality is dominant, and least comfortable dealing with free democratic states where the leader is a public servant.
I concur
What's the response in the US? I'm less looped in to American domestic media than I used to be, but I'm still curious -
How much rallying around the flag "defending freedom" are you seeing in American media and among the public?
I mean, I assume that the core of the Trumpists are 100% on board, and committed anti-Trumpists are against. But are there cracks in Republican unity on this? Are there Democrats who are "serious foreign policy people" who are in favour? And what are the prevailing "main street" narratives right now?
QuoteThe temporarily acting supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Arafeh, was killed after new strikes on Tehran, according to Israeli media.
He was appointed this morning to replace Khamenei, who was also killed yesterday in strikes by the US and Israel.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HCV6m6eXsAEtmvV?format=jpg&name=small)
https://x.com/GloOouD/status/2028162022345507244 (https://x.com/GloOouD/status/2028162022345507244)
Janitor strategy in full swing.
'He should have come to a deal sooner, he kept delaying it, now he's gone, too bad, his fault for starting the war in the first place.'
trump's likely response to a Russian assassination of Zelensky?
Followed a few hours later with a beautifully productive phone conversation with putin?
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on March 02, 2026, 01:01:51 PMI like how the Greens and Schröder (Herr Gazprom who called Putin a perfect democrat) are completely blameless on the whole nuclear affair in Germany. :lol:
They implemented a policy that was both popular and part of their electoral promises. And they did it open-ended and more flexible than the Conservatives & Liberals (not an uneasy coalition!) in 2011. And they did kickstart the aforementioned renewables boom. Overall, a much more balanced policy in the early 2000s than the one implemented by the Conservatives in 2011. Even acknowledging Schröders role in Nordstream I.
QuoteWhereas a single opportunistic and demagogic "Conservative" leader, reneging conservative policies, serves as a strawman for the whole German conservatives, themselves in uneasy coalitions most of the time.
:lol: Sure. Germany stopped building nuclear reactors in the 80s when Kohl ruled, notably also in conservative regions like Bavaria or Baden-Wurttemberg. In 2011, besides Merkel, leading conservatives like Söder, Röttgen etc. supported the policy and the support by the parliamentary faction was unanimous...
These days our conservatives are following fantasy concepts like e-fuels or so. Not serious.
Quote from: Threviel on March 02, 2026, 01:29:17 PMThe only way is not correct, both nuclear and coal is possible, with some input from oil, gas and hydro. Solar and wind is never going to cut it except as (important) complements to a good base supply.
Europe imports 100% of its uranium usage and 67% of hard coal usage. Maybe we have a different understanding of energy independence?
You can get uranium from Canada. So not independent but a bit more secure than gas supplies from the Middle East. It's not like you have to worry about a hostile power blockading Canada ....
Actually, never mind, you're right after all.
Canada is the biggest source (about a third), but the rest comes from places like Russia, Kazakhstan, or Niger. Hardly preferable to fossils from authoritarian countries like Russia, USA or the gulf states.
PS: As I said before here, I feel the German nuclear phase out was a mistake. We should have ran the existing plants significantly longer and fully phased out coal before nuclear.
But pretending the German conservatives have any sensible energy policies just triggers me. They are much more ideological than even the Greens and have not had a sensible policy for decades in that area.
To be clear nuclear alone makes little sense. Nuclear is useful because it can such an effective and carbon-free complement to solar and wind.
Send Josq to the coal mines he was so bitterly deprived off? :hmm:
Quote from: Zanza on March 02, 2026, 02:33:28 PMQuote from: Threviel on March 02, 2026, 01:29:17 PMThe only way is not correct, both nuclear and coal is possible, with some input from oil, gas and hydro. Solar and wind is never going to cut it except as (important) complements to a good base supply.
Europe imports 100% of its uranium usage and 67% of hard coal usage. Maybe we have a different understanding of energy independence?
We have rich deposits of both coal and uranium. On the timescale needed to rebuild our energy infrastructure it is entirely feasible to restart coal mines and start uranium mining.
Quote from: Zanza on March 02, 2026, 02:26:40 PMThey implemented a policy that was both popular and part of their electoral promises. And they did it open-ended and more flexible than the Conservatives & Liberals (not an uneasy coalition!) in 2011. And they did kickstart the aforementioned renewables boom. Overall, a much more balanced policy in the early 2000s than the one implemented by the Conservatives in 2011. Even acknowledging Schröders role in Nordstream I.
They implemented a popular scaremongering and demagogic suicidal energy policy serving the interests of Moscow.
Those so-called left-wing parties (Hartz IV...) had to pretend to be so by clinging to a
cause célèbre and an old-fashioned demagogic view to keep some voting credibility.
As for FDP and CDU, not an uneasy coalition, in theory yes, with people such as Guido, back then.
FDP had no clear position on the issue. As far as opportunists go, they are a bit like Macron, but not as successful.
Quote:lol: Sure. Germany stopped building nuclear reactors in the 80s when Kohl ruled, notably also in conservative regions like Bavaria or Baden-Wurttemberg. In 2011, besides Merkel, leading conservatives like Söder, Röttgen etc. supported the policy and the support by the parliamentary faction was unanimous...
These days our conservatives are following fantasy concepts like e-fuels or so. Not serious.
First attempt to end nuclear was done under Herr Gasprom, as part of his political corrupt deals with the Greens and Moscow.
Later, the CDU reversed it before yielding to demagoguery and political expediency, citing earth quake and tsunami concerns in a non-sismic country. :lol:
As for the alleged examples in the '80s in Bavaria: try Franz Josef Strauss who did all he could for nuclear energy, the Greens and assorted leftists are to blame for not building more, not the CSU.
Even France did not build that many in the '80s (Superphénix being cancelled on dubious grounds by a socialist government later on), the whole process was done under Pompidou and Giscard (Helmut Schmidt times). A different SPD as well.
Röttgen as leading conservative is very kind to him. Söder had his 15 minutes of fame, being the first Lutheran Franconian taking over "real" Bavaria, and in charge of coalition negotiations with the SPD.
So a great example, of real CSU/CDU.
As far as fantasy concepts, the Green mix(er) based on coal, lignite and Russian gas, now US LNG (more expensive though), is the real contender. Thankfully, there are French nuclear power plants to fuel it (pun intended). :rolleyes:
I could have also mentioned the brilliant Green and SPD idea to link the European prices of electricity to (Russian) gas, so derogations had to be made first for Iberia (completely unreliant on Russian gas) then France which has a varied gas mix but had to suffer high electricity prices due to SPD and Green corruption by Moscow.
Vlad Wexler on the contradictory and limited communication in the wake of the attacks on Iran:
Summary: It actively undermines democracy.
So, Iran will be more democratic than the United States.
Quote from: Zanza on March 02, 2026, 02:26:40 PM:lol: Sure. Germany stopped building nuclear reactors in the 80s when Kohl ruled, notably also in conservative regions like Bavaria or Baden-Wurttemberg. In 2011, besides Merkel, leading conservatives like Söder, Röttgen etc. supported the policy and the support by the parliamentary faction was unanimous...
These days our conservatives are following fantasy concepts like e-fuels or so. Not serious.
Quote from: Threviel on March 02, 2026, 03:07:18 PMWe have rich deposits of both coal and uranium. On the timescale needed to rebuild our energy infrastructure it is entirely feasible to restart coal mines and start uranium mining.
Well, if we have time, then we should rather mine for lithium in Europe and build batteries.
Quote from: Jacob on March 02, 2026, 01:49:07 PMWhat's the response in the US? I'm less looped in to American domestic media than I used to be, but I'm still curious -
How much rallying around the flag "defending freedom" are you seeing in American media and among the public?
I mean, I assume that the core of the Trumpists are 100% on board, and committed anti-Trumpists are against. But are there cracks in Republican unity on this? Are there Democrats who are "serious foreign policy people" who are in favour? And what are the prevailing "main street" narratives right now?
QuoteCnn poll
77% of republicans support the war
32% of indies
17% of dems
Granted it is just one poll.
Quote from: Zanza on March 02, 2026, 03:57:59 PMQuote from: Threviel on March 02, 2026, 03:07:18 PMWe have rich deposits of both coal and uranium. On the timescale needed to rebuild our energy infrastructure it is entirely feasible to restart coal mines and start uranium mining.
Well, if we have time, then we should rather mine for lithium in Europe and build batteries.
Yep. Invest in batteries. That is the future. Trying to revive coal is a terrible idea.
@Duque: Alright, got your point, but disagree. I will stop here as I guess we detailed the Iran War thread enough.
It wouldn't be Languish without regularly-derailed threads. We need to figure out how to make it about the American Civil War, though. :shifty:
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on March 02, 2026, 04:15:23 PMIt wouldn't be Languish without regularly-derailed threads. We need to figure out how to make it about the American Civil War, though. :shifty:
Which one? The original or the impending one?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_Kahn
You're welcome.
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on March 02, 2026, 04:15:23 PMIt wouldn't be Languish without regularly-derailed threads. We need to figure out how to make it about the American Civil War, though. :shifty:
Grant is under-rated. Send him to Arabia. Whatcha mean Iran is not Arabian?
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on March 02, 2026, 04:15:23 PMIt wouldn't be Languish without regularly-derailed threads. We need to figure out how to make it about the American Civil War, though. :shifty:
Looks like it took a while, but the south is finally winning. Gotta admire the long game.
Quote from: Zanza on March 02, 2026, 04:04:14 PM@Duque: Alright, got your point, but disagree. I will stop here as I guess we detailed the Iran War thread enough.
Fine.
Interesting post about the current situation in Iran.
QuoteHere is the current situation in and around Iran.
I won't go over the scale of the strikes on Iranian infrastructure — you can read about that yourselves. I will only note that Israeli and U.S. air forces fully control Iranian airspace, and in that sense the war increasingly resembles a shooting gallery. The main objective is the complete degradation of Iran's defense capabilities.
Overnight, official IRGC channels circulated information about the cancellation of Khamenei's fatwa banning nuclear weapons. This is being interpreted as a final act of blackmail that prompted the coalition to prepare strikes on underground facilities in Fordow. These are senseless statements that once again point to further fragmentation of operational command.
The deepest conflict in the past 40 years is reportedly unfolding between the regular army (Artesh) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Let me note right away that verification is extremely difficult. However, signals are emerging (possibly as part of disinformation), so I am sharing them with you.
Local clashes in Tehran have been verified (in the government district and near the Vali-e Asr headquarters). Artesh units reportedly refused to transfer air defense reserves to the IRGC and declined to participate in suppressing street protests.
There are reports that the Artesh high command is distancing itself from what it calls "suicidal" IRGC orders to attack tankers and U.S. bases. The army is positioning itself as an "institution of national salvation" for a post-revolutionary period. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Israeli strikes on IRGC headquarters (Thar-Allah) have significantly undermined the Guards' ability to control the capital.
Following confirmation of the Rahbar's death, protests flared up with renewed intensity in Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz. The slogans include direct calls for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.
Mass transfers of political prisoners from Evin and Rajai Shahr prisons have been confirmed. They are reportedly being moved to strategic sites (Natanz and IRGC headquarters) to be used as "human shields." This has forced the coalition to adjust the schedule of strikes in the city center.
Prince Reza Pahlavi has officially called on security forces to side with the people, stating that "the regime is living its final hours."
Good news: thanks to the intervention of Mohsen Rezaei and pressure from China, the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened ahead of Monday's trading session. This has eased panic in the oil market (Brent is trading at $78–80).
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have successfully repelled massive IRGC missile attacks (True Promise IV). The position of Arab capitals is clear — full neutralization of the Iranian threat. The fact that Ukraine is being mentioned as an important element in strengthening Gulf air defense is a positive sign. Zelensky's timely statement on this works in our favor.
The United Kingdom, France, and Germany have expressed support for the Iranian people's right to a democratic transition, which amounts to a diplomatic "green light" for coalition actions.
Moscow's refusal to intervene on Tehran's side has been heard in Beijing and Pyongyang as a signal of Russia's weakness. Attempts by Moscow to contact Washington directly on this issue have reportedly failed.
Beijing is moving toward more direct management of the crisis (in the case of the Strait of Hormuz). Whether this is good or bad remains unclear, but it has calmed market turmoil.
To summarize: Tehran is experiencing a form of "dual power" between a paralyzed Transitional Council and a radical IRGC faction prepared for nuclear escalation. The next 48 hours will be decisive — either formalizing the regime's capitulation or leading to further escalation, if it still has the means to escalate.
Source: translated and adapted from Ihor Semyvolos
https://x.com/rshereme/status/2028465634925806003 (https://x.com/rshereme/status/2028465634925806003)
If true it's the Syrian civil war brewing. Die-hard regime holdovers vs. the "People" factions. :hmm:
Quote from: Legbiter on March 02, 2026, 05:41:44 PMInteresting post about the current situation in Iran.
QuoteHere is the current situation in and around Iran.
I won't go over the scale of the strikes on Iranian infrastructure — you can read about that yourselves. I will only note that Israeli and U.S. air forces fully control Iranian airspace, and in that sense the war increasingly resembles a shooting gallery. The main objective is the complete degradation of Iran's defense capabilities.
Overnight, official IRGC channels circulated information about the cancellation of Khamenei's fatwa banning nuclear weapons. This is being interpreted as a final act of blackmail that prompted the coalition to prepare strikes on underground facilities in Fordow. These are senseless statements that once again point to further fragmentation of operational command.
The deepest conflict in the past 40 years is reportedly unfolding between the regular army (Artesh) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Let me note right away that verification is extremely difficult. However, signals are emerging (possibly as part of disinformation), so I am sharing them with you.
Local clashes in Tehran have been verified (in the government district and near the Vali-e Asr headquarters). Artesh units reportedly refused to transfer air defense reserves to the IRGC and declined to participate in suppressing street protests.
There are reports that the Artesh high command is distancing itself from what it calls "suicidal" IRGC orders to attack tankers and U.S. bases. The army is positioning itself as an "institution of national salvation" for a post-revolutionary period. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Israeli strikes on IRGC headquarters (Thar-Allah) have significantly undermined the Guards' ability to control the capital.
Following confirmation of the Rahbar's death, protests flared up with renewed intensity in Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz. The slogans include direct calls for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.
Mass transfers of political prisoners from Evin and Rajai Shahr prisons have been confirmed. They are reportedly being moved to strategic sites (Natanz and IRGC headquarters) to be used as "human shields." This has forced the coalition to adjust the schedule of strikes in the city center.
Prince Reza Pahlavi has officially called on security forces to side with the people, stating that "the regime is living its final hours."
Good news: thanks to the intervention of Mohsen Rezaei and pressure from China, the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened ahead of Monday's trading session. This has eased panic in the oil market (Brent is trading at $78–80).
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have successfully repelled massive IRGC missile attacks (True Promise IV). The position of Arab capitals is clear — full neutralization of the Iranian threat. The fact that Ukraine is being mentioned as an important element in strengthening Gulf air defense is a positive sign. Zelensky's timely statement on this works in our favor.
The United Kingdom, France, and Germany have expressed support for the Iranian people's right to a democratic transition, which amounts to a diplomatic "green light" for coalition actions.
Moscow's refusal to intervene on Tehran's side has been heard in Beijing and Pyongyang as a signal of Russia's weakness. Attempts by Moscow to contact Washington directly on this issue have reportedly failed.
Beijing is moving toward more direct management of the crisis (in the case of the Strait of Hormuz). Whether this is good or bad remains unclear, but it has calmed market turmoil.
To summarize: Tehran is experiencing a form of "dual power" between a paralyzed Transitional Council and a radical IRGC faction prepared for nuclear escalation. The next 48 hours will be decisive — either formalizing the regime's capitulation or leading to further escalation, if it still has the means to escalate.
Source: translated and adapted from Ihor Semyvolos
https://x.com/rshereme/status/2028465634925806003 (https://x.com/rshereme/status/2028465634925806003)
If true it's the Syrian civil war brewing. Die-hard regime holdovers vs. the "People" factions. :hmm:
I'm not buying that, it reads too much like a wis-list of what should happen to prove the IDF/trump 'strategy' was justified.
Quote from: mongers on March 02, 2026, 06:13:09 PMI'm not buying that, it reads too much like a wis-list of what should happen to prove the IDF/trump 'strategy' was justified.
It sent a cold shiver down my spine. Libya in 2011 was a flawless masterpiece of NATObros coming together in perfect transatlantic harmony to oust a loathsome POS dictator hellbent on slaughtering his own people. Zero (0) NATO casualties, perfect execution, mission accomplished. And then the...hangover.
Trump basically is my darker 14 year old self with the world's most expensive HOI IV habit (in strict dollar terms). Putin comes in a very close second.
Quote from: HVC on March 02, 2026, 10:24:53 AMI see, thanks. I recall Canada recently started shipping LNG out of BC. Wonder why it took so long, and why we don't ship out to Europe. Probably valid reasons, but I'll bring out the classic and blame Quebec with or without reason :P . I actually worked for a company that produced portable chilling units to facilitate the trapping of gasses from oil extraction instead of burning it off.
I joke with sheilbh, but given the shit going down south of the border we (Canada) really should have invested in our export infrastructure.
It's just taken that long to get the infrastructure in place to do it. As you alluded to in your post building, the ports to facilitate the export of LNG was quite an undertaking.
This is a good example of an area where first nation governments stepped up and took the lead. But for their role, we probably wouldn't have any active ports ready yet.
A dash of wholesome to this Third Gulf War. Kuwaiti civilians approach a downed F-15 pilot.
The value of just this one clip is vastly greater than the cost of one F-15.
If the Iranian regime is brought down and the Iranian people get better more free government that would be incredible, and to Trump and his backers' credit, much as I loathe them.
Quote from: Valmy on March 01, 2026, 02:45:52 PMQuote from: viper37 on March 01, 2026, 02:43:53 PMQuote from: DGuller on March 01, 2026, 02:41:19 PMNot sure why he was still of interest,
To make sure the regime is destabilized as much as possible, no one they can easily turn to for a leadership role in the immediate aftermath of the strikes.
Was he even in the running?
He wasn't. But let's say there's a power vacuum because the top leadership dies unexpectedly. Who do you turn to, either as a leader or advisor? No matter the differences with the Ayatollahs, I assume he's still a patriot and would have worked toward stabilizing the country as much as he could.
QuoteAnyway destabilizing a place just means the most psychotic thug takes charge. I don't know why that would be better.
And that's why you're not MAGA. You think way too far ahead.
Quote from: Jacob on March 02, 2026, 07:17:52 PMIf the Iranian regime is brought down and the Iranian people get better more free government that would be incredible, and to Trump and his backers' credit, much as I loathe them.
I think it's very unlikly but I agree (although I think any sign of elite/security forces defection would be very telling because I don't think there's ever been any indication of that in Iran previously) - the internet blackout is back. Again it's pessimistic but I think it's a resilient regime.
I think a lot about the Gideon Rachman at the end of 2024 about the various possibilities of how a second Trump presidency might work out in the world and I think some sort of Iranian revolution or regime change was part of the rather grim "America First succeeds" path.
QuoteA dash of wholesome to this Third Gulf War. Kuwaiti civilians approach a downed F-15 pilot.
I'd add also an absolute repudiation of Hegseth's repeated denigration of women in the forces.
Quote from: Jacob on March 02, 2026, 07:17:52 PMIf the Iranian regime is brought down and the Iranian people get better more free government that would be incredible, and to Trump and his backers' credit, much as I loathe them.
Trump and his oligarch buddies in the Gulf just want to restore the monarchy, all for the sake of autocratic corruption.
Not sure that's in the best interests of the Iranian people considering, you know, the last fucking time.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 02, 2026, 08:16:12 PMTrump and his oligarch buddies in the Gulf just want to restore the monarchy, all for the sake of autocratic corruption.
Not sure that's in the best interests of the Iranian people considering, you know, the last fucking time.
Yeah no doubt. And like Sheilbh, I don't think it's particularly likely.
Also - good to see you :hug:
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 02, 2026, 08:04:07 PMI'd add also an absolute repudiation of Hegseth's repeated denigration of women in the forces.
DEI pilot gets shot down? He'll have her mustered out before she gets back to base.
Quote from: Jacob on March 02, 2026, 07:17:52 PMIf the Iranian regime is brought down and the Iranian people get better more free government that would be incredible, and to Trump and his backers' credit, much as I loathe them.
How can they claim credit if they didn't have that objective in the first place? It's like giving credit to Mr. Magoo or Inspector Clouseau.
Meanwhile Rubio in one of the most extraordinary statements from a US SofS, explained that imminent danger existed because the US couldn't talk the Israelis out of a strike that it believed would result in Iran retaliating against the US. So we were forced to join them.
I've spent my entire life insisting that Israel doesn't control US foreign policy only to watch as an American Secretary of State explained we had to go to war because Israel controls our foreign policy.
My concern if that focus is on winning the media space and declaring victory, which is overshadowing the fact the Iranians are still putting a lot of missiles and drones into the air.
An example they've now targeted the UAE with as many ballistic missiles and drones as one of the recent very heaviest Russian barrages against Ukraine, that implies there still a lot of remaining launch infrastructure.
So many more days of this to go, much longer than the nerve of oil traders will hold?
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 02, 2026, 08:58:11 PMMeanwhile Rubio in one of the most extraordinary statements from a US SofS, explained that imminent danger existed because the US couldn't talk the Israelis out of a strike that it believed would result in Iran retaliating against the US. So we were forced to join them.
I've spent my entire life insisting that Israel doesn't control US foreign policy only to watch as an American Secretary of State explained we had to go to war because Israel controls our foreign policy.
It's regime capture, first Putin, now Nattyarwho.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 02, 2026, 08:19:37 PMQuote from: Sheilbh on March 02, 2026, 08:04:07 PMI'd add also an absolute repudiation of Hegseth's repeated denigration of women in the forces.
DEI pilot gets shot down? He'll have her mustered out before she gets back to base.
Hey CdM, good to see you and Fate back on board. :)
So, the Iranians are using political protesters as human shields? I can see why so many on the far-left like them.
Quote from: Legbiter on March 02, 2026, 03:26:57 AMSaudi Aramco refinery was just hit with shahed drones. At this point the asymmetry in cost between 70k drones and Pac-3 missiles (several million per missile) becomes obvious. You need cheap, plentiful radar-guided ack-ack like the Ukrainians employ. :hmm:
https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2028369512119046632 (https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2028369512119046632)
Ukraine should send:
5 interceptors (to be delivered in 3 months).
No operators (would cross red lines).
Best wishes.
Condemnations of Irans actions.