Iran War?

[HisMajestyBOB]

I would not be surprised if the deal ended up being something like Iran provides $50 billion to Trump's bribe fund Board of Peace and pinky promises to never build a nuclear bomb, while in exchange the US recognizes Iran's right to toll the straits (with some proceeds going to the Board of Peace, of course) and US taxpayers pay billions to help Iran rebuild their oil and gas infrastructure.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Apparently Iran is saying Kushner and Witkoff are persona non grata for future negotiations, they view them both as simply perpetuating bad faith negotiations in the past to prepare for the inevitable U.S. attacks. They now say any negotiations must involve J.D. Vance, since he has historically been skeptical of involvement in Middle Eastern wars.

[Legbiter]

Who is going to be the bad boyar whose bad advice mislead the Czar to this defeat? Hegseth should prepare for claiming political asylum in Norway.

[viper37]

I would not be surprised if the deal ended up being something like Iran provides $50 billion to Trump's bribe fund Board of Peace and pinky promises to never build a nuclear bomb, while in exchange the US recognizes Iran's right to toll the straits (with some proceeds going to the Board of Peace, of course) and US taxpayers pay billions to help Iran rebuild their oil and gas infrastructure.

Iran will not agree to pay any money.

They may agree to vague terms where Trump will claim Iran will invest or pay US reparations, but nothing firm.

[The Minsky Moment]

Apparently Iran is saying Kushner and Witkoff are persona non grata for future negotiations, they view them both as simply perpetuating bad faith negotiations in the past to prepare for the inevitable U.S. attacks. They now say any negotiations must involve J.D. Vance, since he has historically been skeptical of involvement in Middle Eastern wars.

Smart.
Witkoff is just another idiot RE guy. Gullible fool completely out of his depth and in Putin's pocket.
Kushner is a nepo baby puppet for the Saudis and the Gulf Arabs that bought him.

Vance is going to be wary about getting involved though, out of feat of being shivved in the back by other Trumpies and because he wants his fingerprints as far away from this shitshow as possible.

[The Minsky Moment]

Who is going to be the bad boyar whose bad advice mislead the Czar to this defeat? Hegseth should prepare for claiming political asylum in Norway.

He's a real keeper.  Leading candidate for the 2027 FIFA Peace Prize Award

[Tamas]

According to Reuters these are the terms the US is offering. Reads to me like a minor Iranian victory because no Iranian concession there - except for the nuclear weapons one is something the US would restart the war over if Iran just ignored their own commitments:

Iran dismantling its nuclear capabilities;

Iran committing to not pursuing further nuclear weapons;

Iran not enriching any more nuclear material;

All enriched material will be delivered to Saba on a schedule to be determined by the US, Israel and Iran;

The Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow nuclear facilities will be decommissioned;

The Atomic Energy Agency will get access to all nuclear information with regard to Iran's programme;

Iran will abandon its proxy model;

Iran will stop its actual funding and arming of proxies in the region;

The strait of Hormuz will remain open, as a free maritime zone and unblocked in the future;

Iran will limit the number and range of its missiles;

Any further use of its missiles will be for Iranian self-defence only;

All sanctions on Iran will be lifted;

Iran will be assisted in developing a civil nuclear project in Bushehr;

The snapback threat against Iran will be removed,

The US and Israel will assist Iran in promoting and developing a civil nuclear project in Bushehr (electricity generation).

[Grey Fox]

Losing the proxies is a giant concession especially towards their Russian ally.

[Jacob]

Seems fair-ish.

Were I Khamenei I'd add that Iran would get to pick an equivalent number Trump family members to blow up to make up for the family members he lost, and then call it a deal.

[Legbiter]

He's a real keeper.  Leading candidate for the 2027 FIFA Peace Prize Award

This whole war has really brought down my opinion of the Fifa Peace Prize. 

[Tamas]

Losing the proxies is a giant concession especially towards their Russian ally.

My point is, if they agree to this and then later break it, would Trump, let alone any other president, restart this nightmare just because they arm militias in the region? Of course not.

[grumbler]

He's a real keeper.  Leading candidate for the 2027 FIFA Peace Prize Award

This whole war has really brought down my opinion of the Fifa Peace Prize. 

 

[Jacob]

So it's being widely reported that the 82nd airborne is being deployed to theatre. I've seen numbers of 1000, 2000, and 3000 mentioned.

Between that and the MEU, it does seem like the US is positioning itself to grab something - presumably coastal.

We've discussed Kharg Island as a potential target. The theory here, I think, is that it would be an economic blow impacting Iran's ability to export oil. We've also discussed how it could expose American troops to significant bombardment and potentially result in significant casualties.

Are there any other reasonable targets for the on the ground capabilities the US is positioning? And I mean from the point of view of presumably competent US operational planners, not Hegseth and Trump.

Of course, the MEU and airborne being repositioned doesn't mean they'll actually be used to attack - but if the US does attempt to take and hold Iranian land, it will do so with the assets it has locally available.

[crazy canuck]

So it's being widely reported that the 82nd airborne is being deployed to theatre. I've seen numbers of 1000, 2000, and 3000 mentioned.

Between that and the MEU, it does seem like the US is positioning itself to grab something - presumably coastal.

We've discussed Kharg Island as a potential target. The theory here, I think, is that it would be an economic blow impacting Iran's ability to export oil. We've also discussed how it could expose American troops to significant bombardment and potentially result in significant casualties.

Are there any other reasonable targets for the on the ground capabilities the US is positioning? And I mean from the point of view of presumably competent US operational planners, not Hegseth and Trump.

Of course, the MEU and airborne being repositioned doesn't mean they'll actually be used to attack - but if the US does attempt to take and hold Iranian land, it will do so with the assets it has locally available.

I'm not sure what your source is and I really wish you would link it because it's completely inconsistent with what the New York Times was reporting just two days ago which you will see if you read my post from this morning.

Does widely reported to mean that you saw some post on social media saying it was being widely reported?

And realistically what are a mere 5000
Troops going to do, stage a landing and hold until relieved? 

[Sophie Scholl]

I'm not sure what your source is and I really wish you would link it because it's completely inconsistent with what the New York Times was reporting just two days ago which you will see if you read my post from this morning.

Does widely reported to mean that you saw some post on social media saying it was being widely reported?

And realistically what are a mere 5000
Troops going to do, stage a landing and hold until relieved? 

https://apnews.com/article/us-military-iran-war-82nd-airborne-4b4c30ebc807b323fbf35c4435a739f1