Iran War

[viper37]

Do US oil bros think high oil price is good or bad?

Not an absolute.

A little higher than they were before, good as long as there is low tariffs.

Too high, and it promotes fuel economy and green energy, so not good.

[OttoVonBismarck]

That's basically how all the big oil producers think--including the petrostates like KSA, they've openly said their goal for oil prices is to not let them get so high that it drives rapid market shifts to alternatives. Which is basically common sense in any case that people will follow a profit maximizing strategy.

[Zanza]

So Trump is now boasting about destroying civilian infrastructure, e.g. the largest bridge in Iran. Not even pretending this to be about military targets anymore.

[Tamas]

So Trump is now boasting about destroying civilian infrastructure, e.g. the largest bridge in Iran. Not even pretending this to be about military targets anymore.

Yeah lots of flailing-about energy. Terror bombing ain't far away now

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Yeah lots of flailing-about energy. Terror bombing ain't far away now

Something, something, Iran did it first.

[Legbiter]

Some light purging of generals overnight by the burgers. 

[HisMajestyBOB]

Sounds like the reason for the firings is that those generals were not racist, sexist pieces of shit, which runs counter to Trump administration policy.

[Legbiter]

They probably had serious misgivings about the upcoming ground operations including something about airdropping forces in to dig up the buried uranium stockpile in the middle of Iran. 

Maybe one of them accidentally glanced at Dien Bien Phu wikipedia article.

[HisMajestyBOB]

I have not seen any sources on that, but it wouldn't surprise me if daring to question Der Fuehrer's strategic genius was a contributing reason.

[Bauer]

So that's how he prepares for his statements 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Apparantly the French got a ship out of the Persian Gulf. Through the tollbooth of course.

[The Minsky Moment]

Iran is the master of the tolling trolling.

[Duque de Bragança]

Apparantly the French got a ship out of the Persian Gulf. Through the tollbooth of course.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are allegedly seeking to charge tolls starting at $1 per barrel and considering payment settlements in either Chinese yuan or stablecoins.

There are purportedly discussions about requiring ships to submit detailed data to IRGC-linked intermediaries for approval, with access determined by a country ranking system.

https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/04/03/french-ship-crosses-strait-of-hormuz-in-first-western-european-transit-during-iran-war

Belongs to a company owned by a Franco-Lebanese family, with Syrian origins, so I guess Near and Middle  East connections facilitated the likely deal.

CMA CGM, majority-owned by the Saadé family

[Crazy_Ivan80]

aha, that might indeed explain.

that said: I can't see the Iranians maintaining uncontested control over the straight forever. After all, the other side can equally close it using drones at any time. And national pride - sectarian strife- will eventually demand some form of retaliation.

None of this, however, changes the reality that the orange blob and his clique fucked up

[Sheilbh]

Maybe - I think in the long-run they've done this and other states will look at how to work around this chokepoint. I'd expect more pipelines and attempts to build out the infrastructure of other routes.

But I think the German Defence Minister's point a while ago is still true - if the US Navy is not able to re-open the strait I'm not really sure that anyone else would be able to.

Having said that I think you're right on drones etc - but I'd possibly flip it the other way. The global trade system, global trade in general is based on free passage guaranteed above all by the US Navy but other big traditional navies too - basically pre-drone navies/militaries. I think this situation is clarifying because I'm not sure that necessarily holds and there may be a while to discover how to combat it. But it seems increasingly plausible to me that small states, non-states, states without major navies or air forces will increasingly cheaply and effectively be able to disrupt globalised trade and impose costs. That will have an impact economically but also in terms of military mobility - I think it's easy to see how it applies over sea-lanes but I'm not entirely sure you couldn't apply the same over land or air? I'm sure very clever people in the Defence Ministries of the world are thinking about this but it feels like a significant shift from the 20th century (and earlier) model that will require adaptation.