Iran War?

[Sheilbh]

I will say--fully understanding it is negative for the broader global economy, I feel little but schadenfreude at seeing the likes of KSA, UAE, and Qatar suffer economic impacts. All three of these countries are terrible, with toxic rulers and horrifically shitty societies. All three have actively worked to export misery, terrorism, and Islamic extremism abroad. While the wicked autocratic monarchs who rule these countries are probably the "best we're likely to get" in terms of who would govern such fundamentally Islamist regions, that doesn't equate to me actually thinking they're good countries. I think the UAE and Dubai in specific is given far too much cultural acceptance and prominence relative to how terrible the UAE is. I'm not losing any sleep over these guys getting less oil money for a while.

Yeah I'm kind of in the same place.

They are important for the world economy and the British economy. They're allies and I know that Saudi, in particular, is especially I think in the last 10-15 years is really important at intel sharing to prevent terrorism (terrorism often inspired by Saudi funded policies from the 10-15 years before that).

But I think they are awful regimes - possibly from a slightly different perspective. I loathe the UAE model of indentured and borderline enslaved labour from the Indian subcontinent and South-East Asia supporting their post-oil economy of gross consumption, tax exile influencers and even more amoral than normal lawyers from the West enjoying the type of lifestyle that you can only get through massive exploitation of workers (including trafficked sex workers - though I'm always dubious of that phrase when it is coercive/trafficking).

Important, friendly states but they make me go very Savonarola. (I have also enjoyed both the British and French internet having exactly the same memes about HMRC and le fisc waiting at airports for our compatriots being rescued from the zero-tax warzone they moved to.)

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, some might even say this is an asymmetrical war

Yeah - but also I think from an Iranian perspective it's really difficult for the US and Israel to escalate. They've already killed their head of state.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, some might even say this is an asymmetrical war

Yeah - but also I think from an Iranian perspective it's really difficult for the US and Israel to escalate. They've already killed their head of state.

I disagree.  The US could target Iranian oil facilities.  That would be the equivalent of the nuclear option in this region.

Also, I think you give too much importance to the assassination of one person for the Iranians. As already stated many times in this thread, they have been preparing for this eventuality for 40 years.  And they've been living with the threat of the Israeli's assassinating their leaders for just as long.

[OttoVonBismarck]

If Ali Khamenei dying was such a big deal then Iran had big problems ahead regardless--dude was 86, well past his sell by date.

Iran did not have a huge problem transitioning from one Ayatollah to the other in 1989, I'm skeptical that in and of itself is a huge governance factor.

The main impact of Ali Khamenei dying whilst not clearly establishing a successor just means the IRGC ended up with even more power, but it was Ali who specifically chose to so dramatically empower the IRGC. Ruhollah Khomeini actually intentionally struck a balance more between IRGC and other power bases in Iran. Without knowing his motivations I assume he was enough of a student of history to recognize a force like the IRGC could quickly become the sort of undesirable Roman "Praetorian Guard" that is the real power behind the throne. Khomeini was a true believer in clerical rule, and I think you don't have true clerical rule if the clerics are poorly theologically formed puppets of powerful IRGC commanders.

Khamenei, while my understanding is he had not independently reached the Shiite clerical honor of "Ayatollah" prior to his being selected, was a trained cleric in Tehran's most prestigious school in the 1960s and a long time student of Khomeini, so his clerical bonafides were legitimate.

Mojtaba appears to be much more of a pure IRGC puppet, his clerical formation is supposedly quite weak (and to be clear, I don't fully understand Shia Islam clericalism enough to speak intelligently on this, I'm repeating what more learned people have written), and there's also claims Mojtaba the individual is not a strong personality nor a man of any notable talents. His father was the President of Iran for years prior to the first Ayatollah dying, and had been an accomplished political operator.

But the Iran that Khamanei built is one largely built on the IRGC, so it isn't a huge disruption for the IRGC to just prop up a puppet.

The death of Larijani may be a bigger deal because his death wasn't so imminent otherwise, and he appears to have been the biggest individual power inside the IRGC faction.

[Sheilbh]

Oh sure I don't think it matters much at all (if anything allowing the regime to get some fresh blood and maybe hardlining) at a practical or operational level.

But I think at the level of symbol and meaning - especially for a Shia theocracy given how central martyrdom and resistance are to Shia Islam - I think it's difficult to overstate.

[crazy canuck]

Oh sure I don't think it matters much at all (if anything allowing the regime to get some fresh blood and maybe hardlining) at a practical or operational level.

But I think at the level of symbol and meaning - especially for a Shia theocracy given how central martyrdom and resistance are to Shia Islam - I think it's difficult to overstate.

No, you are definitely overstating it.  You are again basing your conclusions in a stereotype that doesn't actually exist.

[PJL]

Based on snippets I have read since the war started my half-educated guess is that Iran was willing to partially bend the knee to Trump in the negotiations, so Bibi convinced him to awe the world with a Venezuela-stlye decapitation instead, since it didn't serve his interest to give Iran or indeed Israel, breathing room.

That was definitely a mistake by Iran; they should have continued to play hardball. OTOH, they're in a much better position now than they were before the war, as long as they don't keep losing key figures in the administration and military.

It isn't clear to me that they are now economically better off, which was a big issue facing Iran, right?

In absolute terms, probably not. In relative terms, by making the global economy more unstable, they are making it more fair for them by leveling down the playing field.

[crazy canuck]

Based on snippets I have read since the war started my half-educated guess is that Iran was willing to partially bend the knee to Trump in the negotiations, so Bibi convinced him to awe the world with a Venezuela-stlye decapitation instead, since it didn't serve his interest to give Iran or indeed Israel, breathing room.

That was definitely a mistake by Iran; they should have continued to play hardball. OTOH, they're in a much better position now than they were before the war, as long as they don't keep losing key figures in the administration and military.

It isn't clear to me that they are now economically better off, which was a big issue facing Iran, right?

In absolute terms, probably not. In relative terms, by making the global economy more unstable, they are making it more fair for them by leveling down the playing field.

And in the long term it is likely all to the Iranian's advantage to destroy the infrastructure of their surrounding competitors.  The Chinese will come in and help rebuild the Iranian infrastructure to get access to their oil, and supply their military.

[crazy canuck]

Hegeseth just gave a speech saying all Americans should go down on bended knee at work, in schools, and at home to pray to Jesus Christ for American troops.

[Valmy]

Hegeseth just gave a speech saying all Americans should go down on bended knee at work, in schools, and at home to pray to Jesus Christ for American troops.

Just theologically I don't make those kinds of prayers. I would appreciate if the government would respect my freedom of religion and not tell me what I should be doing or believing.

[HVC]

Hegeseth just gave a speech saying all Americans should go down on bended knee at work, in schools, and at home to pray to Jesus Christ for American troops.

Just theologically I don't make those kinds of prayers. I would appreciate if the government would respect my freedom of religion and not tell me what I should be doing or believing.

Well you're just bad American then.

[Syt]

Hegeseth just gave a speech saying all Americans should go down on bended knee at work, in schools, and at home to pray to Jesus Christ for American troops.

[Syt]

Though it seems to be par for the course for him.

https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/10/us-defence-chief-ends-iran-war-briefing-with-prayer-for-troops

US defence chief ends Iran war briefing with prayer for troops
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth recited a prayer for US troops attacking Iran, asking for strength and protection, during a Pentagon briefing. American and Israeli officials have been criticised for pushing rhetoric suggesting that the campaign against Iran is a religious war.

(Video at link)

[Sheilbh]

No, you are definitely overstating it.  You are again basing your conclusions in a stereotype that doesn't actually exist.

What stereotype that doesn't exist?

[HVC]

Hasn't this been theme off and on in America since the 40s? Good save america and all that. Also, I vaguely recall FDR doing a whole pray for the troops thing.


Not saying hegseths not a douche.