Iran War

[The Minsky Moment]

Iran's President says halt to fighting was a "key part" of their agreement for the ceasefire. J.D. Vance says "Iran would be stupid to break the ceasefire over Lebanon."

This is the administration's "most serious" negotiator on Iran fwiw.

Ah the old "Don't be stupid" gambit

Not the finest hour for the reputation of the Yale Law School Negotiation Clinic.  No wonder USNWR dinged them below Stanford.

[Richard Hakluyt]

It is the Iranians who are being stupid?

That is a very interesting take on the situation.

[Sheilbh]

Italian reporter picked this up and I've no idea what the Free Press is so haven't read the full article. However we've reached the stage of a demarche referencing the Avignon Papacy by Elbridge Colby, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, to the Papal Nuncio:

Mattia Ferraresi
@mattiaferraresi
The Trump administration summoned a Vatican diplomat to the Pentagon, and during the tense meeting a U.S. official invoked the Avignon Papacy. On July 4, the American pope will be in Lampedusa -- he didn't pick that date by accident. @TheFP

I'd note that Colby was, pre-administration, a vocal "realist" calling for the US to basically pull out of Europe and the Middl East in order to focus entirely on China - so a man of great weight and principle.

I've mentioned some of the weirder strands of American MAGA Catholicism under Francis (especially around the wildly conspiratorial former Nuncio, Archbishop Vigano) and honestly a Trumpian Antipope feels plausible and perhaps appropriate (a phenomenally corrupt and corrupting captivity primarily expressed through gaudy real estate projects).

Edit: The immediate context, by-the-by, is the American Pope statements over Holy Week including condemnation of "the imperialist occupation of the world" and that God rejects the prayers "of those who wage war". An American Pope, formed in Latin America after all.

[HVC]

Non Latino American Catholics are basically Protestant anyway. Even the "Italian" ones are as catholic as they are Italian after a generation or two

[Jacob]

I wonder how many US Catholics would join the American schismatics vs stay loyal to Rome?

[Syt]

Corruption? In this government?

https://apnews.com/article/polymarket-iran-trump-ceasefire-prediction-markets-350d9fe5ffefa74080ff5dd973aef48b

Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement

NEW YORK (AP) — A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.

These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline.

An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets.

One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000.

Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500.

Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks.

There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat — a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO.

While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve.

Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts.

Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.

Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions."

The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.

Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.

Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms.

"This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."

[Norgy]

Christ, this is depressing.

Makes me long for the heady days of Dubya.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Christ, this is depressing.

Makes me long for the heady days of Dubya.

He was an honest, smart and balanced president by comparison. Waste of hitler-comparisons

The Romans: managed decline over a 1000 years.

The Americans: decline over a 1000 days

[Richard Hakluyt]

If the USA is tracking Roman history then we can expect improvements in about 50 years under the Antonine presidents :SPQR :MAGA

[Syt]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/traders-place-large-950-million-bet-oil-price-falling-hours-ahead-ceasefire-2026-04-08/

Traders place large $950 million bet on oil price falling hours ahead of ceasefire

LONDON, April 8 (Reuters) - Investors placed an approximately $950 million bet on oil prices falling just hours before the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire, the latest large wager on the direction of the world's most traded commodity ahead of a major policy announcement by President Donald Trump.

On Tuesday, investors sold a combined 8,600 lots of Brent and U.S. crude futures at 1945 GMT, according to LSEG data.

At around 2230 GMT on Tuesday, ⁠Trump stepped back from threatening the destruction of "a whole civilization" and announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, knocking crude futures , down by some 15% to below $100 a barrel at the start of Wednesday's official trading session.

Taking large positions on oil prices rising or falling is not unusual as traders use them to hedge large volumes of physical oil trade.

But such deals are very rarely done in big lots, as traders prefer to use sweeping orders across many exchanges and ask brokers to use algorithmic trading over many hours to execute the order to avoid impacting prices with their bets. Large orders also are seldom executed after settlement, which happens Monday to Friday at 1830 GMT.

The bet ‌follows ⁠similar moves on March 23, when investors sold $500 million in oil futures just 15 minutes before an announcement by Trump that he would delay attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, which stunned markets and then triggered a 15% drop in the crude price.

In Tuesday's trading, some 6,200 lots of Brent futures changed hands at 1945 GMT, roughly 1% of the total volume traded in the ⁠day's regular session, while some 2,400 lots of WTI futures traded at this time, also equal to around 1% of that day's regular volume.

Exchange operator CME Group declined to comment. ICE and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees U.S. commodity derivatives markets, ⁠did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Trading volumes and volatility have exploded since the start of the war. On average, in the three years leading up to the war, some 300,000 lots of Brent crude ⁠futures would change hands on a daily basis.

That amount has doubled in the last four weeks as daily volumes have hit record highs above 1 million lots, equal to a billion barrels of oil.

 

[jimmy olsen]

Trump started the war in secret with little advance notice, certainly no public political debate. He has never meaningfully justified it to America, and he has certainly never tried to appeal to Americans patriotism to get them to tolerate self sacrifice.

It's obvious why, for all that his catch phrase has been "Make America Great Again" he understands neither patriotism, nor sacrifice. They are alien ideologies to him, so much so that he doesn't even bother to pretend to understand them.

[Tonitrus]

Italian reporter picked this up and I've no idea what the Free Press is so haven't read the full article. However we've reached the stage of a demarche referencing the Avignon Papacy by Elbridge Colby, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, to the Papal Nuncio:

Mattia Ferraresi
@mattiaferraresi
The Trump administration summoned a Vatican diplomat to the Pentagon, and during the tense meeting a U.S. official invoked the Avignon Papacy. On July 4, the American pope will be in Lampedusa -- he didn't pick that date by accident. @TheFP

https://newrepublic.com/post/208820/pentagon-threatened-pope-criticized-donald-trump

The White House has dismissed the entire account, writing in a statement to reporter Barbara Starr that "the Free Press's characterization of the meeting is highly exaggerated and distorted."

"The meeting between Pentagon and Vatican officials was a respectful and reasonable discussion," the Defense Department official continued. "We have nothing but the highest regard and welcome continued dialogue with the Holy See."

So, definitely true.

[Maladict]

If the USA is tracking Roman history then we can expect improvements in about 50 years under the Antonine presidents :SPQR :MAGA

That's assuming you're at the end of the Flavian line. If you're at the end of the Severan line you're in for a rough ride. And if the US survives the 3rd century they'll end up with increasingly autocratic/military rule and a new state religion.

[Norgy]

Traders place large $950 million bet on oil price falling hours ahead of ceasefire

Oh for fuck's sake. Would you mind hiding your corruption at least a litte?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Traders place large $950 million bet on oil price falling hours ahead of ceasefire

Oh for fuck's sake. Would you mind hiding your corruption at least a litte?

No, they want the public to know and understand who's the master and who's the worthless peasants.