Iran War

[The Minsky Moment]

I mean, seriously, don't let this man have a bunker. 

Need less Archie, more Edith.

And Meathead.   

[The Minsky Moment]

I mean, he can have a bunker if he promises to do what the other bunker guy did.

Let the Russians destroy Berlin?  He's already well on his way.

[Sheilbh]

I think almost certainly at least partially related to the war but not solely (there's been disputes brewing) but UAE leaving OPEC. I think they're one of the largest producers (though Saudi still massively ahead of everyone else) so quite interesting.

[Zanza]

An Israel/US attack on Iran creating a Saudi/Pakistan bloc vs a UAE/India bloc is beyond my understanding of geopolitics.

[mongers]

An Israel/US attack on Iran creating a Saudi/Pakistan bloc vs a UAE/India bloc is beyond my understanding of geopolitics.

For peace of mind, just blame the CIA. 

[The Minsky Moment]

An Israel/US attack on Iran creating a Saudi/Pakistan bloc vs a UAE/India bloc is beyond my understanding of geopolitics.

You've played far too many Paradox games to make such a statement.   

Fear of the Achaemenids Parthians Safavids Pahlavis Islamic Republic kept the otherwise squabbly Gulf region princes and potentates together.   Weaken the Persian Death Star enough, and back to squabbling they go.

[Sheilbh]

You've played far too many Paradox games to make such a statement. 

Fear of the Achaemenids Parthians Safavids Pahlavis Islamic Republic kept the otherwise squabbly Gulf region princes and potentates together.  Weaken the Persian Death Star enough, and back to squabbling they go.

I think October 7 is key. Israel and the wider Arab world could reach normalisation against Iran and the Axis of Resistance as long as Palestine is capable of being ignored and that fictional world where Palestine was "contained" as an issue and secure ended.

I think the role of Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi and Turkiye working together to try and negotiate a deal over this is really interesting and striking (and possibly positive) new attempt at creating a regional order.

And I think related to that there is a Suez crisis element of the limits of US power being revealed (very different from Suez in many ways). If US security guarantees are not reliable or effective or able to deliver common goods like free transit - then it makes sense to look for alternatives.

[Norgy]

An Israel/US attack on Iran creating a Saudi/Pakistan bloc vs a UAE/India bloc is beyond my understanding of geopolitics.

The Saudi-Pakistani link has been there for some time. Pakistan welcomed the Wahabi, uhm, envoys during the war in Afghanistan, and Taliban is kind of their creation, albeit with local conditions primed for radicalism.

[The Minsky Moment]

I think October 7 is key. Israel and the wider Arab world could reach normalisation against Iran and the Axis of Resistance as long as Palestine is capable of being ignored and that fictional world where Palestine was "contained" as an issue and secure ended.

Oct 7 mattered because it increased pressure from the "street". But I don't think the implications were massive - it shifted the diplomatic stance to Israel from rapprochement to cool neutrality.

From the Gulf POV the collapse of Assad and his replacement by a friendly Sunni Islamist regime was more significant, shattering the pivot point of the Shi'a crescent.

[crazy canuck]

Agreed, and now throw American incompetence into the mix and whatever consensus was developing has been destroyed.

[Sheilbh]

Oct 7 mattered because it increased pressure from the "street". But I don't think the implications were massive - it shifted the diplomatic stance to Israel from rapprochement to cool neutrality.

From the Gulf POV the collapse of Assad and his replacement by a friendly Sunni Islamist regime was more significant, shattering the pivot point of the Shi'a crescent.

I agree on Assad which is unrelated. But I also think October 7 is how you end up with Israel's astonishingly successful attack on Hezbollah which is also a key part of the axis of resistance - which I think is, like the collapse of Assad, significant for the Gulf and Turkiye.

You might be right on the diplomatic stance point - but I am struck at how much Saudi-linked discourse targets the UAE as basically being in the pocket of Tel Aviv. That might just be rhetoric on top of those existing tensions. I think it has set a ceiling to relations with Israel and possibly removed a floor (especially because Iran is not likely to be the power able to take advantage of Israeli difficulties any more).

[Zanza]

"The Iranians are clearly stronger than expected and the Americans clearly have no truly convincing strategy in the negotiations either," Merz said during a school visit in Marsberg, a town in his home region of Sauerland.

"The problem with conflicts like this is always: you don't just have to get in, you have to get out again. We saw that very painfully in Afghanistan, for 20 years. We saw it in Iraq."

The US "quite obviously went into this war without any strategy," Merz said, making it all the harder to bring the conflict to an end.

"Especially since the Iranians are obviously negotiating very skilfully — or simply very skilfully not negotiating," he added. "A whole nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership."

"It is at the moment a pretty tangled situation," the chancellor said. "And it is costing us a great deal of money. This conflict, this war against Iran, has a direct impact on our economic output."

An unusually blunt statement by Friedrich Merz.

And now Trump threatens to withdraw American troops from Germany as a reaction. Good luck with your war without your European logistics hubs. 

[crazy canuck]

At this point, the faster the Americans withdraw their troops from Europe, the better, and everywhere else in the world, the better.

They can do less harm sitting at home.

[Valmy]

And now Trump threatens to withdraw American troops from Germany as a reaction. Good luck with your war without your European logistics hubs. 

Anyway meanwhile Brent Crude is up to $114 and the world economy teeters on the verge of disaster. Our media? Babbling about ballrooms and nonsense and has already gotten bored of talking about it. Our government? Reality TV nonsense.

It's going to be a long, cold, lonely winter.

[crazy canuck]

And now Trump threatens to withdraw American troops from Germany as a reaction. Good luck with your war without your European logistics hubs. 

Perfect