Iran War?

[Syt]

Why are we assuming that that it's all down to Trump as to how the war with Iran will end?  Iran found some balls to squeeze, they may not relax the grip as soon as Trump decides he doesn't want to keep pummeling Iran.

Besides, Israel seems far from being done, regardless of what the US does.

[Tonitrus]

Why are we assuming that that it's all down to Trump as to how the war with Iran will end?  Iran found some balls to squeeze, they may not relax the grip as soon as Trump decides he doesn't want to keep pummeling Iran.

Indeed...one of the demands one could easily predict Iran will make is that they won't allow any Gulf state hosting US forces to transit their resources/ships via the SoH until they evict the US.  Then those states will face the choice to either agree to those demands, or we go back to getting involved.

[HVC]

He could just pull out anyway and say that the US produces their own oil and doesn't need the Middle East, not understanding commodity pricing, couldn't he?

[DGuller]

He could just pull out anyway and say that the US produces their own oil and doesn't need the Middle East, not understanding commodity pricing, couldn't he?

Trump is a businessman, he'll hire people who understand.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Trump on truth social :

"I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WITCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"

Was alerted by my shares portfolio suddenly spiking upwards.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think this is a particularly ill-thought out war and unlikely to lead to any positive outcomes; so hopefully something comes of this.

[Syt]

But ... they had VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE talks before the bombing started, too. 

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yeah, infamous behaviour by the USA there 

[PJL]

I suspect Trump has accepted an Iranian offer to open the Hormuz Strait for all ships for a fee. Maybe even a split of the proceeds.

[OttoVonBismarck]

TACO may have come through for us again, but yeah Trump also said they were having "productive talks" days before starting a very disruptive war that three weeks in he has yet to actually explain or justify to the American people.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I did read an interesting anecdote--apparently some oil industry executives told Trump that his rhetoric on the war was preventing them from committing to any appreciable increase in drilling operations. Now, obviously they'll pump already drilled wells to take advantage of the >$100 oil, but Trump had also wanted them to surge up new production to alleviate the price increases and they basically said "we aren't going to commit to tons of new production when you're saying every 48 hours the war is about to be over."

[HisMajestyBOB]

Also, on Friday Trump covered pretty much every position.
https://bsky.app/profile/warrenjwells.bsky.social/post/3mhocpr3jwk22

[crazy canuck]

Why are we assuming that that it's all down to Trump as to how the war with Iran will end?  Iran found some balls to squeeze, they may not relax the grip as soon as Trump decides he doesn't want to keep pummeling Iran.

Exactly.

Trump may declare victory and go home.

What if Iran declares you need to pay $X to transit Hormuz safely, to recoup the costs from US and Israeli attacks? Is the US going to go right back in, or eat the humiliation?

... or maybe Iran will say they're keeping the Straits closed until they get reparations directly from the US.

... or something else.

But just because the US goes home and stops attacking Iran doesn't mean Iran will do the convenient thing.

Which, IMO, makes it less likely that Trump will declare victory and go home.

Because, unlike the US, Iran is not stupid?

[crazy canuck]

Trump on truth social :

"I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WITCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"

Was alerted by my shares portfolio suddenly spiking upwards.

Called it

[OttoVonBismarck]

Iran, at least Ali Khamenei, was pretty fucking stupid. Being less stupid than Trump is a very low bar but clearing it isn't in itself a big accomplishment.