Iran War?

[viper37]

So, these states, they wanted some kind of war against Iran, right?

They certainly didn't want an all powerful Iran with nukes.  Saudi Arabia has an ideologicial conflict with Iran, and both them and UAE are giving weapons to Sudan's civil war and also to their Yemeni faction while Iran is financing the other Yemeni faction.

But what is it exactly they were expecting would happen? The US and Israel would have a well crafted plan to strike at Iran's military capabilities, wipe these out in a quick strike and get back to the US?

I don't think they expected Iran to strike back at their own facilities with such impunity. I don't believe the UAE thought it was in their best interests that wealthy foreigners in Dubai began fleeing for another sunset destination after some missile rain?  They may find them degenerates, but not their money.

[Legbiter]

As a USAF puke, I don't know nuthin' about nuthin' about Marine landing operations...but an impulsive Kharg island operation gives me bad Gallipoli vibes.

Oh God yes, exactly. This is nu-Gallipoli it seems like.  

[viper37]

More secret stuff for the Chinese and Russian spies.  Man, where are all those leaks coming from?

US to deploy thousands of additional troops to the Middle East, officials say


The United States military is deploying thousands of additional Marines and sailors to the Middle East, three U.S. officials told Reuters on Friday, as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran reached the three-week mark.

No decision had been made to send troops into Iran itself, two of the officials told Reuters, but they will build up the capacity ‌for potential future operations in the region

[...]

Trump told reporters on Thursday that he was not putting troops "anywhere," but that if he were to do so, ‌he would not tell journalists. 

[...]

The additional deployments will add to the 50,000 U.S. troops already in the Middle East and would bring two Marine Expeditionary Units to the region. The first MEU, which was dispatched from the Indo-Pacific, is expected to arrive ⁠in the Middle East next week. 

[The Minsky Moment]

I've seen some social media on Vance gloating about how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hurts Europe (and Japan?) more than it hurts the US.

I'll keep banging the drum on this.  Oil and gas are fungible commodities traded worldwide.  A major supply shortage, no matter what its origin, will raise prices everywhere.  It does not matter that the US is theoretically "self-sufficient" because it will still be impacted by the price increases - indeed that impact has already been felt. The only way to stop that would be to impose price and export controls.  It's kind of incredible to think Vance once wanted to set himself up as a hedge fund manager: there's a career that demonstrates malign influence of DEI if one wanted to make that case.

Vance's open hatred for free states in Europe is another manifestation of his odiousness. What need has Russia for spies when Americans freely puts such contemptible persons into power?

[The Minsky Moment]

There are some bigger logical questions though--seizing Kharg Island would likely push oil over $200/barrel, it would mean Iran's oil functionally being removed from the global market and Iran very likely going full gloves off--they'll be seeking to destroy or damage every gas and oil refining facility in the gulf as long as we hold it.

You've put your finger on this issue; Iran's reliance on Kharg is a serious vulnerability, but trying to exploit to it is like trying to disarm your opponent by grabbing the business end of their knife in your bare hands.

[OttoVonBismarck]

My suspicion is Kharg Island was never a serious plan. It's been talked about since the days of Reagan, and it's been broadcast too much in too many public ways. If there was a serious desire to seize the island I suspect they wouldn't be talking about it at all and would even express either disinterest in the idea or openly reject it if it were brought up.

It's a fun little wargame, but nothing about the discussion leads me to believe it's being seriously contemplated.

People forget that during Gulf War I we had a MEU floating around off the coast of Kuwait for a couple days purely to make the Iraqis think we were going to use it to land, we actually never did.

[jimmy olsen]

Here's a map of the location of Kharg island.



The naval task force would have to go through Hormuz, dodging anti-ship missiles, naval drones, regular ole' drones and direct shore fire from tube artillery. Once through the strait, your task force has to steam ahead about...300 miles before you reach the island. Once there you execute a contested amphibious landing in a drone-infested airspace, secure the objectives and then have to sit there while getting pounded from the mainland.

No element of speed or surprise, the Iranians would know you were coming before you even reached Hormuz, russian and Chinese intelligence would make sure of that.

Why wouldn't you send in troops by ospery/helicopter from Kuwait?

Any ways, good article

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/trump-iran-war-allies/686423/?gift=hVZeG3M9DnxL4CekrWGK31dWsRj9tVhI4YolO-4zzIE

[OttoVonBismarck]

If anyone is interested, this is an interesting historical article about 13th MEU and its operations during the first Gulf War:

Shattered Amphibious Dreams The Decision Not to Make an Amphibious Landing During Operation Desert Storm

[Legbiter]

Why wouldn't you send in troops by ospery/helicopter from Kuwait?

Also very risky for no gain. Hostomel airport risky. Force buildup could also be spotted by russian/Chinese satellites and the airbase itself could be absolutely hammered like the Kuwaiti FOB was on the first day.

Again what is the strategic value? You seize it, the Iranians don't flinch but US forces are conveniently stuck on a flat exposed island now within range of a lot of Iranian weapon systems. The world gets to see American marines get droned to the sound of Yakety Sax on social media while the IRGC gloats?