Iran War?

[crazy canuck]

So easy to do that the most powerful military in the world can't seem to pull it off. Sad.

[Valmy]

NATO is not supposed to be a tiger. It is supposed to be a defensive alliance, not an alliance to launch imperialist wars in Iran.

[The Minsky Moment]

I don't think Trump gets enough credit for the educational value he provides in perfectly illustrating common logical fallacies.

[Valmy]

Trump mulls risky Kharg Island takeover to force Iran to open strait

Maybe my geography is failing me, but Kharg Island isn't anywhere near the Strait of Hormuz. It is hundreds of miles away.

[Richard Hakluyt]

He probably thinks that possession of Kharg island is a "good card" to have when he tries to make a deal with Iran. As usual mistaking a radical bunch of religious nutters with the sort of real estate people he dealt with in New York.

[Jacob]

I've seen some social media on Vance gloating about how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hurts Europe (and Japan?) more than it hurts the US.

An odious framing, obviously, and IMO indicative of the US administrations view on Europe (destroy the EU and undermine European political cohesion, turn individual states into pliable clients).

But I'm interested in the underlying analysis of the situation. How fucked is Europe if this continues, and what options does it have?

One option, of course is to go all in on being American clients and joining the impending quagmire in Iran in the hopes that oil and gas starts flowing sooner.

Another option is to turn back to Russia for oil and gas, leading to more pressure on Ukraine and Eastern Europe.

Is there some sort of path that avoids those two scenarios, and what does it look like?

I think in all cases, economic stagnation and political instability is likely - but to what degree?

[Valmy]

If we completely fuck over Europe they will be better and more pliable friends of ours! THIS STRATEGY CANNOT FAIL.

[Valmy]

One option, of course is to go all in on being American clients and joining the impending quagmire in Iran in the hopes that oil and gas starts flowing sooner.

The oil and gas to Europe goes through the Suez Canal does it not? Asia is going to be far more fucked.

It is the high prices that are the problem for everybody. I question if even relying on Russian gas will do jack fuck about that. China and India will need that gas just as much.

Also I question the political strategy of fucking over Americans voters but thinking it is ok since other country's voters will be more fucked.

Europe needs to get burning coal, using green tech, and building nuclear plants. They need to reduce their reliance on foreign energy as much as possible because guess fucking what? World wide energy supplies are not going to get more stable in the future. The Trump policies of making everything into a sphere of influence national rivalry game will fuck everybody in the world. This is only the beginning my friends.

However, this is going to massively reduce emissions...so there is that.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Vance and his ilk seem to believe that hard-core nationalist parties in Europe will have a desire to be anyone's vassal.
That's not how nationalism works.
Especially not if the sovereign will not take up its obligations as sovereign (i.e. defending the vassals).

But what else to expect from that clownshow.

[crazy canuck]

One option, of course is to go all in on being American clients and joining the impending quagmire in Iran in the hopes that oil and gas starts flowing sooner.

The oil and gas to Europe goes through the Suez Canal does it not? Asia is going to be far more fucked.

It is the high prices that are the problem for everybody. I question if even relying on Russian gas will do jack fuck about that. China and India will need that gas just as much.

Also I question the political strategy of fucking over Americans voters but thinking it is ok since other country's voters will be more fucked.

Europe needs to get burning coal, using green tech, and building nuclear plants. They need to reduce their reliance on foreign energy as much as possible because guess fucking what? World wide energy supplies are not going to get more stable in the future. The Trump policies of making everything into a sphere of influence national rivalry game will fuck everybody in the world. This is only the beginning my friends.

However, this is going to massively reduce emissions...so there is that.

Europe does not face an oil shortage.  It gets most of its needs filled from US and Norwegian exports

[Jacob]

Vance and his ilk seem to believe that hard-core nationalist parties in Europe will have a desire to be anyone's vassal.
That's not how nationalism works.
Especially not if the sovereign will not take up its obligations as sovereign (i.e. defending the vassals).

But what else to expect from that clownshow.

I think their play is to use nationalism as a way for their political clients to gain control of various European nations and then serve their own goals in collusion with American oligarch interests.

Like how Orban positions himself as a nationalist, but really his goal is to serve himself and his clique and he'll happily suborn the interest of the nation to Putin to do so. Or like how Farages loves to use the rhetoric of nationalism but is keen to submit to Trump and American interests unless there's real blow-back. Brexit, IMO, was justified on the grounds of nationalism, but in practice was about capital.

I completely agree with your assessment about European nationalists not wanting to be vassals to anyone, including the US. But a splintered nationalist Europe may find itself with few choices, especially if individual nationalist leaders are seduced by American (or Russian or Chinese) capital (not that that is exclusive to nationalist leaders, of course).

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

If we completely fuck over Europe they will be better and more pliable friends of ours! THIS STRATEGY CANNOT FAIL.

[The Minsky Moment]

If the enemy strikes by the air, attack their girl's schools.

If the enemy strikes by sea, the wise commander shall employ the stratagem of Truth Social.

There are five essentials for victory: (1) He will win who strikes the enemy without knowing why. (2) He will win who knows not to burden his mind with plans or contingencies. (3) The lesser intelligence shall always prevail over the greater. (4) He will win who, unprepared himself, thoughtlessly improvises. (5) He will win who has greater social media shitposting capacity and is not interfered with by sense.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics, but both are woke losers.

[Duque de Bragança]

One option, of course is to go all in on being American clients and joining the impending quagmire in Iran in the hopes that oil and gas starts flowing sooner.

The oil and gas to Europe goes through the Suez Canal does it not? Asia is going to be far more fucked.

It is the high prices that are the problem for everybody. I question if even relying on Russian gas will do jack fuck about that. China and India will need that gas just as much.

Also I question the political strategy of fucking over Americans voters but thinking it is ok since other country's voters will be more fucked.

Europe needs to get burning coal, using green tech, and building nuclear plants. They need to reduce their reliance on foreign energy as much as possible because guess fucking what? World wide energy supplies are not going to get more stable in the future. The Trump policies of making everything into a sphere of influence national rivalry game will fuck everybody in the world. This is only the beginning my friends.

However, this is going to massively reduce emissions...so there is that.

Europe does not face an oil shortage.  It gets most of its needs filled from US and Norwegian exports

Depends on the countries, gas being different.
Some get their oil and gas through Africa (Nigeria) and North Africa (Algeria and Libya).
Azerbaijan for gas , as well.
Not exactly great.