Iran War?

[Legbiter]

Interesting post about the current situation in Iran.

Here is the current situation in and around Iran.

I won't go over the scale of the strikes on Iranian infrastructure — you can read about that yourselves. I will only note that Israeli and U.S. air forces fully control Iranian airspace, and in that sense the war increasingly resembles a shooting gallery. The main objective is the complete degradation of Iran's defense capabilities.

Overnight, official IRGC channels circulated information about the cancellation of Khamenei's fatwa banning nuclear weapons. This is being interpreted as a final act of blackmail that prompted the coalition to prepare strikes on underground facilities in Fordow. These are senseless statements that once again point to further fragmentation of operational command.

The deepest conflict in the past 40 years is reportedly unfolding between the regular army (Artesh) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Let me note right away that verification is extremely difficult. However, signals are emerging (possibly as part of disinformation), so I am sharing them with you.

Local clashes in Tehran have been verified (in the government district and near the Vali-e Asr headquarters). Artesh units reportedly refused to transfer air defense reserves to the IRGC and declined to participate in suppressing street protests.

There are reports that the Artesh high command is distancing itself from what it calls "suicidal" IRGC orders to attack tankers and U.S. bases. The army is positioning itself as an "institution of national salvation" for a post-revolutionary period. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Israeli strikes on IRGC headquarters (Thar-Allah) have significantly undermined the Guards' ability to control the capital.

Following confirmation of the Rahbar's death, protests flared up with renewed intensity in Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz. The slogans include direct calls for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.

Mass transfers of political prisoners from Evin and Rajai Shahr prisons have been confirmed. They are reportedly being moved to strategic sites (Natanz and IRGC headquarters) to be used as "human shields." This has forced the coalition to adjust the schedule of strikes in the city center.

Prince Reza Pahlavi has officially called on security forces to side with the people, stating that "the regime is living its final hours."

Good news: thanks to the intervention of Mohsen Rezaei and pressure from China, the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened ahead of Monday's trading session. This has eased panic in the oil market (Brent is trading at $78–80).

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have successfully repelled massive IRGC missile attacks (True Promise IV). The position of Arab capitals is clear — full neutralization of the Iranian threat. The fact that Ukraine is being mentioned as an important element in strengthening Gulf air defense is a positive sign. Zelensky's timely statement on this works in our favor.

The United Kingdom, France, and Germany have expressed support for the Iranian people's right to a democratic transition, which amounts to a diplomatic "green light" for coalition actions.

Moscow's refusal to intervene on Tehran's side has been heard in Beijing and Pyongyang as a signal of Russia's weakness. Attempts by Moscow to contact Washington directly on this issue have reportedly failed.

Beijing is moving toward more direct management of the crisis (in the case of the Strait of Hormuz). Whether this is good or bad remains unclear, but it has calmed market turmoil.

To summarize: Tehran is experiencing a form of "dual power" between a paralyzed Transitional Council and a radical IRGC faction prepared for nuclear escalation. The next 48 hours will be decisive — either formalizing the regime's capitulation or leading to further escalation, if it still has the means to escalate.

Source: translated and adapted from Ihor Semyvolos

https://x.com/rshereme/status/2028465634925806003

If true it's the Syrian civil war brewing. Die-hard regime holdovers vs. the "People" factions.

[mongers]

Interesting post about the current situation in Iran.

Here is the current situation in and around Iran.

I won't go over the scale of the strikes on Iranian infrastructure — you can read about that yourselves. I will only note that Israeli and U.S. air forces fully control Iranian airspace, and in that sense the war increasingly resembles a shooting gallery. The main objective is the complete degradation of Iran's defense capabilities.

Overnight, official IRGC channels circulated information about the cancellation of Khamenei's fatwa banning nuclear weapons. This is being interpreted as a final act of blackmail that prompted the coalition to prepare strikes on underground facilities in Fordow. These are senseless statements that once again point to further fragmentation of operational command.

The deepest conflict in the past 40 years is reportedly unfolding between the regular army (Artesh) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Let me note right away that verification is extremely difficult. However, signals are emerging (possibly as part of disinformation), so I am sharing them with you.

Local clashes in Tehran have been verified (in the government district and near the Vali-e Asr headquarters). Artesh units reportedly refused to transfer air defense reserves to the IRGC and declined to participate in suppressing street protests.

There are reports that the Artesh high command is distancing itself from what it calls "suicidal" IRGC orders to attack tankers and U.S. bases. The army is positioning itself as an "institution of national salvation" for a post-revolutionary period. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Israeli strikes on IRGC headquarters (Thar-Allah) have significantly undermined the Guards' ability to control the capital.

Following confirmation of the Rahbar's death, protests flared up with renewed intensity in Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz. The slogans include direct calls for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.

Mass transfers of political prisoners from Evin and Rajai Shahr prisons have been confirmed. They are reportedly being moved to strategic sites (Natanz and IRGC headquarters) to be used as "human shields." This has forced the coalition to adjust the schedule of strikes in the city center.

Prince Reza Pahlavi has officially called on security forces to side with the people, stating that "the regime is living its final hours."

Good news: thanks to the intervention of Mohsen Rezaei and pressure from China, the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened ahead of Monday's trading session. This has eased panic in the oil market (Brent is trading at $78–80).

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have successfully repelled massive IRGC missile attacks (True Promise IV). The position of Arab capitals is clear — full neutralization of the Iranian threat. The fact that Ukraine is being mentioned as an important element in strengthening Gulf air defense is a positive sign. Zelensky's timely statement on this works in our favor.

The United Kingdom, France, and Germany have expressed support for the Iranian people's right to a democratic transition, which amounts to a diplomatic "green light" for coalition actions.

Moscow's refusal to intervene on Tehran's side has been heard in Beijing and Pyongyang as a signal of Russia's weakness. Attempts by Moscow to contact Washington directly on this issue have reportedly failed.

Beijing is moving toward more direct management of the crisis (in the case of the Strait of Hormuz). Whether this is good or bad remains unclear, but it has calmed market turmoil.

To summarize: Tehran is experiencing a form of "dual power" between a paralyzed Transitional Council and a radical IRGC faction prepared for nuclear escalation. The next 48 hours will be decisive — either formalizing the regime's capitulation or leading to further escalation, if it still has the means to escalate.

Source: translated and adapted from Ihor Semyvolos

https://x.com/rshereme/status/2028465634925806003

If true it's the Syrian civil war brewing. Die-hard regime holdovers vs. the "People" factions.

I'm not buying that, it reads too much like a wis-list of what should happen to prove the IDF/trump 'strategy' was justified.

[Legbiter]

I'm not buying that, it reads too much like a wis-list of what should happen to prove the IDF/trump 'strategy' was justified.

It sent a cold shiver down my spine. Libya in 2011 was a flawless masterpiece of NATObros coming together in perfect transatlantic harmony to oust a loathsome POS dictator hellbent on slaughtering his own people. Zero (0) NATO casualties, perfect execution, mission accomplished. And then the...hangover.

Trump basically is my darker 14 year old self with the world's most expensive HOI IV habit (in strict dollar terms). Putin comes in a very close second.

[crazy canuck]

I see, thanks. I recall Canada recently started shipping LNG out of BC. Wonder why it took so long, and why we don't ship out to Europe. Probably valid reasons, but I'll bring out the classic and blame Quebec with or without reason . I actually worked for a company that produced portable chilling units to facilitate  the trapping of  gasses from oil extraction instead of burning it off.

I joke with sheilbh, but given the shit going down south of the border we (Canada) really should have invested in our export infrastructure.

It's just taken that long to get the infrastructure in place to do it. As you alluded to in your post building, the ports to facilitate the export of LNG was quite an undertaking.

This is a good example of an area where first nation governments stepped up and took the lead. But for their role, we probably wouldn't have any active ports ready yet.

[Legbiter]

A dash of wholesome to this Third Gulf War. Kuwaiti civilians approach a downed F-15 pilot.

The value of just this one clip is vastly greater than the cost of one F-15.

[Jacob]

If the Iranian regime is brought down and the Iranian people get better more free government that would be incredible, and to Trump and his backers' credit, much as I loathe them.

[viper37]

Not sure why he was still of interest,

To make sure the regime is destabilized as much as possible, no one they can easily turn to for a leadership role in the immediate aftermath of the strikes.

Was he even in the running?

He wasn't.  But let's say there's a power vacuum because the top leadership dies unexpectedly.  Who do you turn to, either as a leader or advisor?  No matter the differences with the Ayatollahs, I assume he's still a patriot and would have worked toward stabilizing the country as much as he could.

Anyway destabilizing a place just means the most psychotic thug takes charge. I don't know why that would be better.

And that's why you're not MAGA. You think way too far ahead.

[Sheilbh]

If the Iranian regime is brought down and the Iranian people get better more free government that would be incredible, and to Trump and his backers' credit, much as I loathe them.

I think it's very unlikly but I agree (although I think any sign of elite/security forces defection would be very telling because I don't think there's ever been any indication of that in Iran previously) - the internet blackout is back. Again it's pessimistic but I think it's a resilient regime.

I think a lot about the Gideon Rachman at the end of 2024 about the various possibilities of how a second Trump presidency might work out in the world and I think some sort of Iranian revolution or regime change was part of the rather grim "America First succeeds" path.

A dash of wholesome to this Third Gulf War. Kuwaiti civilians approach a downed F-15 pilot.

I'd add also an absolute repudiation of Hegseth's repeated denigration of women in the forces.

[CountDeMoney]

If the Iranian regime is brought down and the Iranian people get better more free government that would be incredible, and to Trump and his backers' credit, much as I loathe them.

Trump and his oligarch buddies in the Gulf just want to restore the monarchy, all for the sake of autocratic corruption.

Not sure that's in the best interests of the Iranian people considering, you know, the last fucking time.

[Jacob]

Trump and his oligarch buddies in the Gulf just want to restore the monarchy, all for the sake of autocratic corruption.

Not sure that's in the best interests of the Iranian people considering, you know, the last fucking time.

Yeah no doubt. And like Sheilbh, I don't think it's particularly likely.

Also - good to see you 

[CountDeMoney]

I'd add also an absolute repudiation of Hegseth's repeated denigration of women in the forces.

DEI pilot gets shot down? He'll have her mustered out before she gets back to base. 

[The Minsky Moment]

If the Iranian regime is brought down and the Iranian people get better more free government that would be incredible, and to Trump and his backers' credit, much as I loathe them.

How can they claim credit if they didn't have that objective in the first place?  It's like giving credit to Mr. Magoo or Inspector Clouseau.

[The Minsky Moment]

Meanwhile Rubio in one of the most extraordinary statements from a US SofS, explained that imminent danger existed because the US couldn't talk the Israelis out of a strike that it believed would result in Iran retaliating against the US. So we were forced to join them.

I've spent my entire life insisting that Israel doesn't control US foreign policy only to watch as an American Secretary of State explained we had to go to war because Israel controls our foreign policy.

[mongers]

My concern if that focus is on winning the media space and declaring victory, which is overshadowing the fact the Iranians are still putting a lot of missiles and drones into the air.

An example they've now targeted the UAE with as many ballistic missiles and drones as one of the recent very heaviest Russian barrages against Ukraine, that implies there still a lot of remaining launch infrastructure.
So many more days of this to go, much longer than the nerve of oil traders will hold?

[mongers]

Meanwhile Rubio in one of the most extraordinary statements from a US SofS, explained that imminent danger existed because the US couldn't talk the Israelis out of a strike that it believed would result in Iran retaliating against the US. So we were forced to join them.

I've spent my entire life insisting that Israel doesn't control US foreign policy only to watch as an American Secretary of State explained we had to go to war because Israel controls our foreign policy.

It's regime capture, first Putin, now Nattyarwho.