Iran War?

[Grey Fox]

Ukraine should ask the to lobby the US on their behalf. They hold the at large Trump family by the balls.

[Razgovory]

You can find the location of the Assembly of Experts building on google.  I'm confident even our intelligence is good enough for that.

Probably not a great sign that we keep attacking useless targets.

We keep killing their leaders... Do they not have enough brains to go some undisclosed location while the war goes on?  Maybe they should find a bunker, or a Motel 6.

[Jacob]

How can they claim credit if they didn't have that objective in the first place?  It's like giving credit to Mr. Magoo or Inspector Clouseau.

Mainly because if it turns into a complete shitshow, then they own those consequences too. So to be fair, if somehow they luck into a good set of outcomes, I'll have to give them some of the credit for that.

I tend to believe it will turn into a complete shitshow, but I want to correct a bit for my own bias when assessing the situation.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

You can find the location of the Assembly of Experts building on google.  I'm confident even our intelligence is good enough for that.

Probably not a great sign that we keep attacking useless targets.

We keep killing their leaders... Do they not have enough brains to go some undisclosed location while the war goes on?  Maybe they should find a bunker, or a Motel 6.

Maybe use zoom, or an email.

Change the meeting culture!

[The Minsky Moment]

We keep killing their leaders... Do they not have enough brains to go some undisclosed location while the war goes on?  Maybe they should find a bunker, or a Motel 6.

Hard to say given conflicting and unverified reports.  Israeli media reported Arafi killed yesterday, but that still seems unconfirmed.  Same with the Assembly of Experts attack.  Were they in the building?  I saw one report before the attack saying there were no plans to convene a meeting until hostilities were reduced.  Then again, a number of top leaders including Khameinei were caught in vulnerable positions despite clear advance warning. Israeli media is reporting the Mujtahids were in the building, along with the acting Defense Minister (?) - that may reflect their access of solid intel from IDF or passing on propaganda. Fog of war.

[Jacob]

Iranian strikes test the Gulf's trillion-dollar AI dream
The region sold itself as a safe harbor for the world's data. Amazon's burning data center in the UAE has upended that pitch.

For years, Gulf leaders made a simple promise to Silicon Valley: Bring your data, your models, and your chips, and we will give you stability.

On Sunday, that promise ended in flames, after Iran's retaliatory strikes in response to U.S.-Israeli assault set an Amazon data center in the United Arab Emirates on fire.

In a statement released following the incident, Amazon said "objects" struck the building, creating sparks and flames, declining to link the incident to Iran's missile and drone attacks. Fire crews cut power to the entire site, and more than 24 hours later the facility remains offline, with the disruption spreading to other parts of Amazon's UAE operation.

Full article here: https://restofworld.org/2026/amazon-uae-data-center-fire-iran-strike/

I'll crosspost it to the AI thread too.

[Razgovory]

How can they claim credit if they didn't have that objective in the first place?  It's like giving credit to Mr. Magoo or Inspector Clouseau.

Mainly because if it turns into a complete shitshow, then they own those consequences too. So to be fair, if somehow they luck into a good set of outcomes, I'll have to give them some of the credit for that.

I tend to believe it will turn into a complete shitshow, but I want to correct a bit for my own bias when assessing the situation.

I'm conflicted, I dislike Trump and Netanyahu, I think it will probably turn into a shitshow because everything in the Middle East turns into a shitshow, but I also despise the Iranian regime.  Trump's goons have killed a handful of Americans in the street in the last year or so.  The Ayatollah's thugs killed 30k in a month.  It boggles the mind that people defend this these regime.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I've heard that the Assembly building was empty but also that it wasn't. I've also heard reports the Ayatollah was killed during a meeting in his compound--which if true is mind-boggling opsec. The idea a figure like him would just be openly inside the building most prominently associated with his rule, an obvious target of Iran's enemies...just unthinkably dumb if accurate.

[Legbiter]

Maybe use zoom, or an email.

Change the meeting culture!

Just an astoundingly cretinous regime.

Too stupid to live.

[Zanza]

After his ministers claimed that Israel forced their hand, Trump of course comes out to say that he did instead push Israel. 

[Tamas]

The 2003 invasion of Iraq was, in comparison and even in hindsight, a masterclass of strategic planning and focus compared to whatever the hell is happening right now. I have not a seen a semi-coherent description of the reason for the attacks and their ultimate objective. Any quasi-coherent explanation provided by a member of the government has been near-instanlty contradicted by another member of the government, or Trump himself.

It's extraordinary.

[The Minsky Moment]

Well Israel probably has a plan.  I guess we are following that.

[Sheilbh]

From the NYTimes

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said he offered to help the United Arab Emirates to contend with Iranian strikes and "support the protection of lives." Ukraine has years of experience combatting Iranian-designed drones, launched by Russia. Zelensky said Tuesday in a social media post that he spoke with the Emirati president, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, and they "agreed that our teams will work on this."

Two thoughts.

Zelensky is very canny and I have zero doubt he will be making the link between Iran and Russia very clear in dealing with the US (and his European allies, like Merz visiting Trump today, will do the same). But also I suspect draw the link with Israel. Until the twelve day war Israel-Russian relations were pretty good. Israel was one of the only countries, with Turkiye, that had positive relations with Ukraine and Russia. Iran cashed in their chips during the twelve day war and got Russian support which has poisoned their relations with Israel. I think there's opportunity there for Ukraine in engaging with the US.

The other side is a little bit of a possible risk. It strikes me that several of the world's richest countries across the Gulf are going to be in the market for a lot of weapons and particularly anti-air systems, which are broadly very similar to ones Ukraine is also trying to source. It could be a little like when Europe started reducing its dependence on Russian gas and suddenly a very rich, big customer entered the LNG market which caused huge disruption across Asia (the traditional LNG market). So we need to make sure manufacturing capacity grows rapidly to make sure that the UAE etc aren't able to just outbid Ukraine on this.

Totally separate - but I see that Western reports are saying that Qatar has launched an attack on Iran in the last 24 hours which is extraordinary. But I think a sign of the Gulf mood which is pushing now for regime change.

[Legbiter]

After his ministers claimed that Israel forced their hand, Trump of course comes out to say that he did instead push Israel. 

Either the US has self-esteem issues relating to peer-pressure (which I doubt) or the motive is that this is just a modern punitive expedition/HOI IV addiction.  You go in, absolutely trash the place, despoil the land, etc and hopefully force the new leadership to pay tribute. Iran immediately after this war will be a wasteland, a total basketcase, unable to build nukes or fire ballistic missiles at their neighbors. 

Current US foreign policy is like, I dunno, Subutai invading Hungary.

[Jacob]

Trump and his various spokespeople have not "ruled out" boots on the ground, apparently.

What do you all think the chances are of an American deployment on Iranian soil? Whether limited or substantial?