Iran War?

[Legbiter]

Interesting post about the current situation in Iran.

Here is the current situation in and around Iran.

I won't go over the scale of the strikes on Iranian infrastructure — you can read about that yourselves. I will only note that Israeli and U.S. air forces fully control Iranian airspace, and in that sense the war increasingly resembles a shooting gallery. The main objective is the complete degradation of Iran's defense capabilities.

Overnight, official IRGC channels circulated information about the cancellation of Khamenei's fatwa banning nuclear weapons. This is being interpreted as a final act of blackmail that prompted the coalition to prepare strikes on underground facilities in Fordow. These are senseless statements that once again point to further fragmentation of operational command.

The deepest conflict in the past 40 years is reportedly unfolding between the regular army (Artesh) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Let me note right away that verification is extremely difficult. However, signals are emerging (possibly as part of disinformation), so I am sharing them with you.

Local clashes in Tehran have been verified (in the government district and near the Vali-e Asr headquarters). Artesh units reportedly refused to transfer air defense reserves to the IRGC and declined to participate in suppressing street protests.

There are reports that the Artesh high command is distancing itself from what it calls "suicidal" IRGC orders to attack tankers and U.S. bases. The army is positioning itself as an "institution of national salvation" for a post-revolutionary period. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Israeli strikes on IRGC headquarters (Thar-Allah) have significantly undermined the Guards' ability to control the capital.

Following confirmation of the Rahbar's death, protests flared up with renewed intensity in Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz. The slogans include direct calls for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.

Mass transfers of political prisoners from Evin and Rajai Shahr prisons have been confirmed. They are reportedly being moved to strategic sites (Natanz and IRGC headquarters) to be used as "human shields." This has forced the coalition to adjust the schedule of strikes in the city center.

Prince Reza Pahlavi has officially called on security forces to side with the people, stating that "the regime is living its final hours."

Good news: thanks to the intervention of Mohsen Rezaei and pressure from China, the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened ahead of Monday's trading session. This has eased panic in the oil market (Brent is trading at $78–80).

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have successfully repelled massive IRGC missile attacks (True Promise IV). The position of Arab capitals is clear — full neutralization of the Iranian threat. The fact that Ukraine is being mentioned as an important element in strengthening Gulf air defense is a positive sign. Zelensky's timely statement on this works in our favor.

The United Kingdom, France, and Germany have expressed support for the Iranian people's right to a democratic transition, which amounts to a diplomatic "green light" for coalition actions.

Moscow's refusal to intervene on Tehran's side has been heard in Beijing and Pyongyang as a signal of Russia's weakness. Attempts by Moscow to contact Washington directly on this issue have reportedly failed.

Beijing is moving toward more direct management of the crisis (in the case of the Strait of Hormuz). Whether this is good or bad remains unclear, but it has calmed market turmoil.

To summarize: Tehran is experiencing a form of "dual power" between a paralyzed Transitional Council and a radical IRGC faction prepared for nuclear escalation. The next 48 hours will be decisive — either formalizing the regime's capitulation or leading to further escalation, if it still has the means to escalate.

Source: translated and adapted from Ihor Semyvolos

https://x.com/rshereme/status/2028465634925806003

If true it's the Syrian civil war brewing. Die-hard regime holdovers vs. the "People" factions.

[mongers]

Interesting post about the current situation in Iran.

Here is the current situation in and around Iran.

I won't go over the scale of the strikes on Iranian infrastructure — you can read about that yourselves. I will only note that Israeli and U.S. air forces fully control Iranian airspace, and in that sense the war increasingly resembles a shooting gallery. The main objective is the complete degradation of Iran's defense capabilities.

Overnight, official IRGC channels circulated information about the cancellation of Khamenei's fatwa banning nuclear weapons. This is being interpreted as a final act of blackmail that prompted the coalition to prepare strikes on underground facilities in Fordow. These are senseless statements that once again point to further fragmentation of operational command.

The deepest conflict in the past 40 years is reportedly unfolding between the regular army (Artesh) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Let me note right away that verification is extremely difficult. However, signals are emerging (possibly as part of disinformation), so I am sharing them with you.

Local clashes in Tehran have been verified (in the government district and near the Vali-e Asr headquarters). Artesh units reportedly refused to transfer air defense reserves to the IRGC and declined to participate in suppressing street protests.

There are reports that the Artesh high command is distancing itself from what it calls "suicidal" IRGC orders to attack tankers and U.S. bases. The army is positioning itself as an "institution of national salvation" for a post-revolutionary period. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Israeli strikes on IRGC headquarters (Thar-Allah) have significantly undermined the Guards' ability to control the capital.

Following confirmation of the Rahbar's death, protests flared up with renewed intensity in Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz. The slogans include direct calls for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.

Mass transfers of political prisoners from Evin and Rajai Shahr prisons have been confirmed. They are reportedly being moved to strategic sites (Natanz and IRGC headquarters) to be used as "human shields." This has forced the coalition to adjust the schedule of strikes in the city center.

Prince Reza Pahlavi has officially called on security forces to side with the people, stating that "the regime is living its final hours."

Good news: thanks to the intervention of Mohsen Rezaei and pressure from China, the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened ahead of Monday's trading session. This has eased panic in the oil market (Brent is trading at $78–80).

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have successfully repelled massive IRGC missile attacks (True Promise IV). The position of Arab capitals is clear — full neutralization of the Iranian threat. The fact that Ukraine is being mentioned as an important element in strengthening Gulf air defense is a positive sign. Zelensky's timely statement on this works in our favor.

The United Kingdom, France, and Germany have expressed support for the Iranian people's right to a democratic transition, which amounts to a diplomatic "green light" for coalition actions.

Moscow's refusal to intervene on Tehran's side has been heard in Beijing and Pyongyang as a signal of Russia's weakness. Attempts by Moscow to contact Washington directly on this issue have reportedly failed.

Beijing is moving toward more direct management of the crisis (in the case of the Strait of Hormuz). Whether this is good or bad remains unclear, but it has calmed market turmoil.

To summarize: Tehran is experiencing a form of "dual power" between a paralyzed Transitional Council and a radical IRGC faction prepared for nuclear escalation. The next 48 hours will be decisive — either formalizing the regime's capitulation or leading to further escalation, if it still has the means to escalate.

Source: translated and adapted from Ihor Semyvolos

https://x.com/rshereme/status/2028465634925806003

If true it's the Syrian civil war brewing. Die-hard regime holdovers vs. the "People" factions.

I'm not buying that, it reads too much like a wis-list of what should happen to prove the IDF/trump 'strategy' was justified.

[Legbiter]

I'm not buying that, it reads too much like a wis-list of what should happen to prove the IDF/trump 'strategy' was justified.

It sent a cold shiver down my spine. Libya in 2011 was a flawless masterpiece of NATObros coming together in perfect transatlantic harmony to oust a loathsome POS dictator hellbent on slaughtering his own people. Zero (0) NATO casualties, perfect execution, mission accomplished. And then the...hangover.

Trump basically is my darker 14 year old self with the world's most expensive HOI IV habit (in strict dollar terms). Putin comes in a very close second.

[crazy canuck]

I see, thanks. I recall Canada recently started shipping LNG out of BC. Wonder why it took so long, and why we don't ship out to Europe. Probably valid reasons, but I'll bring out the classic and blame Quebec with or without reason . I actually worked for a company that produced portable chilling units to facilitate  the trapping of  gasses from oil extraction instead of burning it off.

I joke with sheilbh, but given the shit going down south of the border we (Canada) really should have invested in our export infrastructure.

It's just taken that long to get the infrastructure in place to do it. As you alluded to in your post building, the ports to facilitate the export of LNG was quite an undertaking.

This is a good example of an area where first nation governments stepped up and took the lead. But for their role, we probably wouldn't have any active ports ready yet.

[Legbiter]

A dash of wholesome to this Third Gulf War. Kuwaiti civilians approach a downed F-15 pilot.

The value of just this one clip is vastly greater than the cost of one F-15.