Iran War

[crazy canuck]

Missed opportunity - it's much more effective to do one's insider trading during trading hours. This way everyone knows the same thing when the market reopens.  Trump must be very upset about that.

After-market trading is still going on, and the filthy pleb retail traders don't have access to that.

Isn't it the plebs who get fleeced? And now even the plebs know.

You get in early.

1.market closes,i imagine by that time the insiders have built a healthy oil short position at the top.

2. Trump sends the taco message.

3.those with premarket access sell/short their oil-related stuff but even the algorithms are a step behind the insider. The move of course increases the insider's profit. People with only regular hours acesss can watch the lucrative period of the trade play out. Those with oil longs are sweating.

4.market opens, those with longs give up and sell, hopeful people yolo into the short side. The insider closes their short into this dump before reality reaaserts itself and the price goes back up again.

Thanks.

[Jacob]

WSJ headline indicates that the Pentagon is considering sending another 10 000 ground troops to the Middle East, to provide "more military options" for President Trump.

I still haven't come across any scenario of what could usefully be accomplished by that amount of troops as a military option, and remain deeply interested in such scenarios.

For now the most likely mission seems to me to be deployed to grab some semi-significant piece of land and then be sitting ducks for relentless Iranian attacks. Like I said, I'm very keen to learn if there are more effective options for their use.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, it's all just haphazard bullshit.

I really feel sorry for the families of the US military, knowing that their loved ones are being put in harms way so recklessly.

[Valmy]

Yeah, it's all just haphazard bullshit.

I really feel sorry for the families of the US military, knowing that their loved ones are being put in harms way so recklessly.

Maybe for the 10% who aren't rabid MAGA.

[Jacob]

Yeah, it's all just haphazard bullshit.

I really feel sorry for the families of the US military, knowing that their loved ones are being put in harms way so recklessly.

Maybe for the 10% who aren't rabid MAGA.

What's the source of your number?

[Jacob]

Edited the thread title from "Iran War?" to "Iran War"

[The Minsky Moment]

Market stuff . . .

Options are only traded when markets are open.  Futures can trade aftermarket. The aftermarket is obviously less liquid but for really big contracts like S&P there is always some depth.  But doing a trade like this in the aftermarket makes it really stand out.  Whoever did this believed that they could act with total impunity and didn't feel the need to make an effort to hide it.

[The Minsky Moment]

Good analysis

https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/

And the answer is simple: it is not possible for two sides to both win a war. But it is absolutely possible for both sides to lose; mutual ruin is an option.

Preach it.

[Zanza]

WSJ headline indicates that the Pentagon is considering sending another 10 000 ground troops to the Middle East, to provide "more military options" for President Trump.

I still haven't come across any scenario of what could usefully be accomplished by that amount of troops as a military option, and remain deeply interested in such scenarios.

For now the most likely mission seems to me to be deployed to grab some semi-significant piece of land and then be sitting ducks for relentless Iranian attacks. Like I said, I'm very keen to learn if there are more effective options for their use.

Invading Iran needs something the scale of Operation Overlord. Another ten thousand troops won't make a difference to the situation. With a few thousand troops, you can do a Gallipoli.

[HVC]

But gods on americas side   

[Jacob]

Looks like Iran is moving forward with the plan to collect passage fees for the Strait of Hormuz.

It also looks like the fees are payable in Chinese yuan.