Iran War

[Bauer]

He has TACOed.

TACO Tuesday 

[mongers]

The statement from the Iranian government is nearly as unhinged as a trump missive:

Statement on two-week ceasefire from Iran's Supreme National Security Council

The following is a statement by the Supreme National Security Council of Iran on the two-week ceasefire and the conditions for negotiations:

These negotiations will begin in Islamabad with complete distrust of the American side, and Iran will allocate two weeks for these negotiations. This time can be extended by agreement of the parties.

It is necessary to maintain complete national unity during this period and to continue the celebrations of victory with strength.

The current negotiations are national negotiations and a continuation of the field, and it is necessary for all people, elites, and political groups to trust and support this process, which is under the supervision of the revolutionary leaders and the highest levels of the system, and to strictly avoid any divisive statements.

If the surrender of the enemy in the field becomes a decisive political achievement in the negotiations, we will celebrate this great historical victory together, otherwise we will fight side by side in the field until all the demands of the Iranian nation are achieved.

Our hands are on the trigger, and as soon as the slightest mistake by the enemy is made, it will be responded to with full force.

Supreme National Security Council

[Darth Wagtaros]

Yeah, both governments are incapable of acting in good faith, so wondering what the point of negotiations are.

[Sheilbh]

See how this plays out. But reporting that US is starting to talk on previously rejected Iranian points (and Trump's statement indicates they're working off Iranian proposals: "We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.")

From Hamidreza on commentary in Iran:

Hamidreza Azizi
@HamidRezaAz
UPDATE:

📡Iran's first official announcement of a ceasefire

A statement by Iran's Supreme National Security Council claims that "Iran has achieved a great victory and forced the criminal United States to accept its 10-point plan."

According to the statement, this includes a principled U.S. commitment to non-aggression, the continuation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of uranium enrichment, the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, the termination of all UN Security Council and Board of Governors resolutions, compensation to Iran, the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region, and the cessation of war across all fronts, including against the "heroic Islamic resistance" in Lebanon.

The statement "congratulates the Iranian people on this victory" and emphasizes that, "until the details are finalized, continued resilience, prudent management by officials, and the preservation of national unity and cohesion remain necessary."

NOTE: In the meantime, some hardline commentators are accusing the government of "treason".

Iran's Supreme National Security Council also emphasizes that "this does not mean the end of the war," adding that "negotiations will begin on Friday 10 April in Islamabad, to be conducted with complete distrust toward the American side."

I mean obviously a lot of spin in this. But at this stage tough to see this as anything but a very bad decision by Israel (and I think the anti-semitism on the right in the US may well become more salient and alarming).

Edit: What the Iranians are reporting as their ten points:

The Ten Points in the Proposed Iranian Plan According to the Statement of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council:
1. Organizing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the Iranian Armed Forces, thereby granting Iran a decisive economic and geopolitical role in the Strait.
2. Ending the war against all components of the "Axis of Resistance," which Iran presents as an acknowledgment of the failure of Israeli military operations.
3. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases and military deployment points in the region.
4. Establishing an official security protocol for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz that ensures Iran an oversight role in accordance with an agreed-upon mechanism.
5. Payment of full compensation to Iran for war damages based on a comprehensive assessment of the losses incurred by it.
6. Complete lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions imposed on Iran.
7. Cancellation of decisions issued against Iran by the IAEA Board of Governors as well as by the United Nations Security Council.
8. Release of all frozen Iranian assets and funds abroad.
9. Endorsement of these arrangements in a binding resolution issued by the International Security Council.
10. Transforming the agreement into a binding international law that ensures its implementation and enshrines Iran's security and political gains.

Incidentally some speculation that agreeing to a ceasefire with an open strait may have been a quid pro quo with China vetoing the Hormuz resolution in the Security Council.

[Zoupa]

trump and his 2 weeks lol. He's been using that for decades. It's a Roy Cohn thing.

[Darth Wagtaros]

Seems like an overall win for Iran?

[Tamas]

So he couldn't just TACO on the infrastructure bombing thing again, so instead he is TACOing on the whole war, accepting a ceasefire and using Iran's proposal as a negotiation basis.

Pathetic.

[Tamas]

Seems like an overall win for Iran?

If they get to keep enriching Uranium then yes they will have won the war.

[Sheilbh]

Seems like an overall win for Iran?

If those are the bases for negotiation then it feels that way. Obviously who knows what happens next.

Although interestingly, maybe (definitely) not in this way, but Larry Fink had raised the possibility of one outcome being Iranian fossil fuels ending up in the market and significantly lower prices globally.

[Sophie Scholl]

I read Iran gets a nice 2 million per vessel that goes through the Strait. They split it with Oman. I can't see this as anything but a near complete win for Iran with a slight victory for Israel. A complete disaster for the US, though. Wow. Just... incredibly embarrassing and damaging.

[Tonitrus]

Seems like an overall win for Iran?

If they get to keep enriching Uranium then yes they will have won the war.

You all forget, it's now a totally new and reasonable regime. 

[Sheilbh]

I read Iran gets a nice 2 million per vessel that goes through the Strait. They split it with Oman. I can't see this as anything but a near complete win for Iran with a slight victory for Israel. A complete disaster for the US, though. Wow. Just... incredibly embarrassing and damaging.

I think possibly worse for Israel - ultimately America's a distant imperial power. The Israelis live there.

See how it turns out but if Iran have stuck to their demand that any ceasefire also covers Lebanon, plus a new revenue stream (assuming sanctions won't be lifted) and a nuclear program that hasn't been destroyed (assuming we don't believe Trump's claims from eight months ago...), plus effective deterrence and - I suspect - a lot of American allies mid-rapprochement with Israel looking at the region again. I think that's pretty much worst case scenario for Israel.

[crazy canuck]

That's what happens when one is an aggressor.

[Jacob]

Seems like an overall win for Iran?

If those are the bases for negotiation then it feels that way. Obviously who knows what happens next.

Although interestingly, maybe (definitely) not in this way, but Larry Fink had raised the possibility of one outcome being Iranian fossil fuels ending up in the market and significantly lower prices globally.

Yeah if Iranian oil enters the market and lowers prices, I think Trump may be able to spin it as a win to his true believers (and if he can get some grift on the side somewhere he'll probably be able to satisfy his ego also).

It might leave Israel and the GCC countries under a bus, but I don't think that matters much to Trump.

[Sophie Scholl]

I think possibly worse for Israel - ultimately America's a distant imperial power. The Israelis live there.

See how it turns out but if Iran have stuck to their demand that any ceasefire also covers Lebanon, plus a new revenue stream (assuming sanctions won't be lifted) and a nuclear program that hasn't been destroyed (assuming we don't believe Trump's claims from eight months ago...), plus effective deterrence and - I suspect - a lot of American allies mid-rapprochement with Israel looking at the region again. I think that's pretty much worst case scenario for Israel.

We'll see on how things shake out with Lebanon. At the moment, Israel was able to invade Lebanon and demand the evacuation of the population in the areas they control, do some damage to Iran on both a logistical and hierarchy level, and still have their dupe the US willing to follow their lead. Longer term? Yeah. It will probably bear some pretty terrible fruit for Israel, but at the moment, they look like they came out a heck of a lot better than the US.