Iran War

[Sophie Scholl]

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[Caliga]

Hours long tirade over a military failure... I remember somebody else did a lot of that in his final days...

DAS WAR EIN BEFEHL!!!!!1111

[Norgy]

I don't like repeating myself, but Trump does seem a bit lost like Der Führer. Experience from years of good governance show you need something else than just yes-men. Support, sure. Loyalty, yes, to the extent where people's consciousness is not tested too much. But leaders need someone to deliver the bad news and explain them. I don't think Trump really takes any of that in. He is becoming more and more of a parody of an authoritarian. Well done on the media getting some info out from the female dr. Goebbels handling press briefings.

I admit, I did not really buy into "We live in a post-truth world", because we have never had more tools to go through information available. But I suppose we are at that point. It saddens me, it really breaks my worldview and my faith in humanity.

[Syt]

[Mr Morden]

  

[Syt]

 

[Richard Hakluyt]

It is what MAGA voted for; I'm sure they will all be delighted to help a rich muslim country financially 

[HVC]

It is what MAGA voted for; I'm sure they will all be delighted to help a rich muslim country financially 

Well they're fine screwing over their own country for American billionaires, why not throw a few Arab billionaires into the mix.

[Sheilbh]

Not going to lie hearing about the need for swap lines has me reaching for books on the financial crisis and some of the writing about covid

The really interesting angle on this is respected, prominent UAE commentators have been questioning the worth of having US bases. Saying they've not actually added much security, but not ditching the US relationship at all - still buying their weapons from the US but using their own troops (or, in the case of the UAE, mercenaries). This despite UAE being by some distance the most hawkish and US (and Israel) aligned Gulf State in this war.

At the same time there's reports of Saudi getting rid of US bases as they think they could replace them with the Pakistani military (recently deployed to Saudi as part of their mutual defence pact).

It feels like the Middle East is maybe speed running what other bits of the world will go through of a US that is not willing to play the role of a security hegemon, providing security common goods like free transit or increasingly unwilling to provide security guarantees, while still being a financial hegemon and your central banks, companies, financial systems still needing access to dollars.

[Sophie Scholl]

Pakistan with a massive influx of Gulf money will make the Pakistan/India situation flare up dramatically, too, presumably. ...which might spark a renewal of the China/India tensions.

[Sheilbh]

Pakistan with a massive influx of Gulf money will make the Pakistan/India situation flare up dramatically, too, presumably. ...which might spark a renewal of the China/India tensions.

Yep - and as I say Saudi-Pakistan mutual defence pact plus reports of India and UAE developing a defence agreement.

Although other interesting angle is Turkey, Egypt, Saudi and Pakistan working on negotiations and by all accounts Pakistan has been able to work very well with the Iranians and the US (not easy at any time). I feel like that could be the start of a post-America pole/axis in the Middle East - and probably one that was not on the cards until October 7 when Saudi, Israel and UAE were moving into alignment.

[crazy canuck]

Pakistan with a massive influx of Gulf money will make the Pakistan/India situation flare up dramatically, too, presumably. ...which might spark a renewal of the China/India tensions.

Yep - and as I say Saudi-Pakistan mutual defence pact plus reports of India and UAE developing a defence agreement.

Although other interesting angle is Turkey, Egypt, Saudi and Pakistan working on negotiations and by all accounts Pakistan has been able to work very well with the Iranians and the US (not easy at any time). I feel like that could be the start of a post-America pole/axis in the Middle East - and probably one that was not on the cards until October 7 when Saudi, Israel and UAE were moving into alignment.

Yeah, and I would go further, not just that it was not in the cards, but the US had an opportunity to create the circumstances for peaceful co-existence in the region (or at least as peaceful as could be hoped). Now the world will have to deal with a tinder box for a couple of generations.

[Tamas]

Another TACO Tuesday: ceasefire extended indefinitely

[crazy canuck]

Another TACO Tuesday: ceasefire extended indefinitely

I read a good analysis of the differences in bargaining approaches  (I think in the NYTimes over the weekend). Trump is used to employing pressure tactics to get a quick deal done.  The Iranians are immune to pressure tactics and view them as a sign of weakness.  It took a very long time for the US to negotiate the first deal that was made by Obama.  It was detailed, nuanced and complex.  All the things Trump and his administration lack to capacity to understand, or achieve.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Yeah, and I would go further, not just that it was not in the cards, but the US had an opportunity to create the circumstances for peaceful co-existence in the region (or at least as peaceful as could be hoped). Now the world will have to deal with a tinder box for a couple of generations.

Born too late to deploy to the Sandbox.

Born too early to deploy to the Sandbox.

Born just in time to deploy to the Sandbox.

[crazy canuck]

Yep