Iran War

[Legbiter]

Apparantly the French got a ship out of the Persian Gulf. Through the tollbooth of course.

Art of the Deal (in yuan probably). See, Euros can open the Strait. 

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't know that it's ever been that feasible for a purely naval force to defeat this kind of naval choke point that is leveraging ground assets. As we all know from EU4 and general history, the Øresundstolden were a thing and the only times they really got suspended is when some power (namely Sweden) whipped Denmark's ass bad enough in a war that Denmark a) lost control of its provinces in southern Sweden and b) had to agree via treaty to not attempt to levy the dues on Swedish vessels. And of course that war involved a Swedish army marching into Copenhagen--something that often will bring a country to terms.

Even when a hostile power is using traditional naval assets to do things like harass shipping with piracy, it is rare that a purely naval campaign attains a lasting victory--most of the great pirate states of history were only suppressed when the land from which they operated was conquered and subjugated.

I don't really know that any of this is particularly deep cut knowledge, in fact I strongly suspect a High Schooler of decent historical knowledge would have known Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz during any war. Not least of all because it has been such a well known thing it has been repeatedly stated for 40 years anytime the topic has come up.

What is tremendously stupid is that Trump clearly gave zero consideration to it--one has to wonder if he wasn't told of the possibility or if he was told and dismissed it. Either way it's a huge failure of Trump's leadership. If he wasn't told, it means he has so insulated himself with worshipful sycophants that none of them dared to bring up something that would be "bad vibes" for Donnie's First War. If he was told, it just means the dude is dumb as fuck, but that's also kind of well known. I suspect if he was told, he wasn't argued with over it--whoever telling him perhaps mentioning it in passing and, when noticing it didn't titillate Donnie it was a topic best left unexplored.

I do think the Middle East oil powers no matter what happens to end the war, have to consider long term permanent alternatives to the Strait. While the U.S. is the chaos agent right now, Iran is no choir boy and this exposes fully how vulnerable these petrostates are to the Strait being closed.

When the Middle East was in a period of greater calm there was a vast oil pipeline that ran from the southeast of the Arabian peninsula northwest through KSA along its northern border with Iraq, Syria and Lebanon all the way to the Mediterranean Sea. While the relationship between Iran and its Arab neighbors is at an all time low, the various Arab states are on the best terms they've been on in decades--Iraq not openly hostile to the Gulf States, a leadership in Syria that is broadly accepted by the Gulf powers, Qatar and the other Gulf States putting their enmity aside as of late etc.

There's actually still pipelines covering some of the same routes (partially), as well as a pipeline between Kirkuk in Iraq through Turkey to the Mediterranean, these pipelines have a capacity far too limited to be a serious player in the current situation, but there's not a practical reason much of the Gulf oil production couldn't be piped across Iraq, and there's far less of a political reason that it couldn't now than in the more recent past.

[Zanza]

Most of the oil goes to Southeast Asia though, which is not practical in the Mediterranean. Also all the other products they make like LNG, helium, fertilizer etc. would need additional pipelines and for LNG huge plants at the point of shipping. Dubai is a big container port too.

[Jacob]

There's actually still pipelines covering some of the same routes (partially), as well as a pipeline between Kirkuk in Iraq through Turkey to the Mediterranean, these pipelines have a capacity far too limited to be a serious player in the current situation, but there's not a practical reason much of the Gulf oil production couldn't be piped across Iraq, and there's far less of a political reason that it couldn't now than in the more recent past.

I mean, I'd probably explore it if I was in a leadership position in any of those countries... but it's not like it's guaranteed that just because Iraq and Syria are amenable to the GCC countries right now, they'll continue to be so.

Thinking on it, I'd also suspect that that kind of pipeline would increase conflict in Iraq. I expect Iran would want to go as hard as they could on proxies if it meant controlling the pipeline, and think other players - like Israel and Turkey - would want to exert influence.

There might be some complexities there.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Pipelines are also chokepoints and the infrastructure is vulnerable to attack; maybe the Arab states could build these pipelines and, 20 years later, a new war will have broken out and we (or our replacements) will be discussing whether the Straits of Hormuz are a viable alternative export route.

[crazy canuck]

OVB is just wrong when he says there is no practical reason why pipelines can't be built across Iraq to the Mediterranean.

The customers for that oil are on the other side of the world.

Why would anybody build a pipeline that is not practical simply to avoid the sheer stupidity of the United States, blinding into another idiotic war?

Maybe the world should spend his resources time and energy mitigating against the stupidity of the United States in more productive ways.

[Duque de Bragança]

There is already such a pipeline going from Kirku, Iraq to Ceyhan, Turkey, bypassing Syria.
The one from Iraq to Syria could be reactivated, as well.

[Sheilbh]

Iraq has been pretty heavily destabilised by this conflict - US bases under attack, French troops had to be withdrawn.

Iran has wider regional interests and strategy so any pipelines would need to be built with that in mind (i.e. probably not through Iraq). Also they're not going to want to lightly surrender their deterrence power from control of the Strait by just casually allowing loads of alternative routes. That is just how energy works to a point - the 70s oil shock led to North Sea exploitation, oil sands, other exploitation in North America, the 2000s led to the (American) shale revolution.

I was thinking more either to Oman or the Red Sea - but as Zanza points out this works for oil. It might be do-able pretty quickly for LNG in terms of building terminals. It's a lot more difficult for the industrial/chemicals infrastructure in Gulf States. And RH is absolutely right, they are just new chokepoints.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The actual people who run the oil industries in these countries have openly discussed a new trans-arabian pipeline. It isn't speculative. At the end of the day, getting your oil to market is always better than not. Alberta would likely prefer to just pipe much of its oil production to the Pacific through BC, but for political reasons that hasn't been possible. They will certainly take the option to pipe through the US when that is the option they have.

Saudi Arabia's pipeline that transits to the Red Sea is also capable of 7m bpd, these pipelines can be significant.

And while pipelines can be blown up, that is harder than closing the Strait. Additionally a single segment of pipeline is not actually that expensive and replacing them isn't that complicated—pipeline explosion ruptures from accidents are regularly fixed within days.

[crazy canuck]

Iraq has been pretty heavily destabilised by this conflict - US bases under attack, French troops had to be withdrawn.

Iran has wider regional interests and strategy so any pipelines would need to be built with that in mind (i.e. probably not through Iraq). Also they're not going to want to lightly surrender their deterrence power from control of the Strait by just casually allowing loads of alternative routes. That is just how energy works to a point - the 70s oil shock led to North Sea exploitation, oil sands, other exploitation in North America, the 2000s led to the (American) shale revolution.

I was thinking more either to Oman or the Red Sea - but as Zanza points out this works for oil. It might be do-able pretty quickly for LNG in terms of building terminals. It's a lot more difficult for the industrial/chemicals infrastructure in Gulf States. And RH is absolutely right, they are just new chokepoints.

Actually, Zanza's point was it doesn't work for a while either because the customers for the oil are on the other side of the fucking planet.

And you guys are the smart ones. No wonder mega is able to persuade so many Americans to vote for them. 

[OttoVonBismarck]

We don't really care about natural gas, the way its distribution works our domestic supply (which is more than we could ever use), isn't interconnected with the global market the same way crude oil is. While Trump is wrong that the shut down of the Strait oil trade doesn't impact us because "we don't use it", that idea is more or less correct when it comes to natural gas. Natural gas due to the nature of how it gets distributed and the way that distribution works in the domestic market, it isn't really interconnected in the same way as crude oil.

If anything as an exporter of LNG competing exporters being shut down is to our benefit.

[mongers]

Upcoming 'Weekend Spectacular' today or next weekend to wrestle back 'the narrative'* and up the ratings?




* stream of bullshit.

[The Minsky Moment]

Any large-scale oil and gas pipeline infrastructure project is at risk of stranded costs.  China is pushing very hard on electrification and renewables, they don't want oil and gas dependence.  ASEAN has been a key driver of imports through the Gulf but they may rethink their energy mix going forward.  Pipelines can evade maritime choke points but they are also fixed and vulnerable on land; they are hardly immune to fallout from war and civil conflict.

The EU is also facing choices going forward of to what degree they want to rely on US LNG exports and to what degree substitute with Chinese solar and battery tech.

[Tamas]

Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP

[Richard Hakluyt]

Excellent!

Smithers! Move the Doomsday clock another 5 seconds forwards!