Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Wandsworth massively Remain 75%-25% and 118,000 odd vote for remain.

As a friend (who lives in Wandsworth) said tonight, there's a lot of people very worried about their nannies

[mongers]

BBC suffering from cultural dissonance and still saying 'it's way to early to call'.

[Agelastus]

And Sterling now rallies to 1.44 on google.

Presumably the first London results have steadied opinion.

[Sheilbh]

John Curtice pointing out that London looks like turnout is up 4% from the General, in the rest of England it's up by 6%

[mongers]

Wandsworth massively Remain 75%-25% and 118,000 odd vote for remain.

As a friend (who lives in Wandsworth) said tonight, there's a lot of people very worried about their nannies

There was an illumination audience contribution during the question time programme, a woman said she loved going into London as she found the foreign-born* coffee shop staff were delightfully friendly and helpful. 

* And by implication ....

[mongers]

Hammersmith and Fulham goes Remain at 70-30%

Though Gosport goes 67-33%.

[alfred russel]

So right now remain has more votes and london is mostly out. Why the remain defeatism? Is it really so bad for remain?

[Drakken]

So right now remain has more votes and london is mostly out. Why the remain defeatism? Is it really so bad for remain?

From what I understand, the vast number of predicted Leave turfs still remain uncounted for.

[OttoVonBismarck]

And the assumption would have to be the pollsters making predictions going off the current results have estimated Remain is going to win London by some percentage.

[Agelastus]

Corby declares for leave (the second of my immediate county neighbours) but the vote's up by less than 4% on the general election.

Looks like I'm in a really solidly leave area (60%+)

[Sheilbh]

So right now remain has more votes and london is mostly out. Why the remain defeatism? Is it really so bad for remain?

Inner London is Remain - outer London is Leave.

To take two London results Barking and Dagenham was won by Leave by 24%, the expected result was about 8%. Hammersmith and Fulham was Remain by 40%, the expected result was 30%.

Remain may still win, but right now Leave areas are turning out more (2% higher than London, Scotland isn't turning out at the same level as England) and Leave voters are turning out more in those ares - such as in Barking there.

Edit: And London is 15% of the population and Scotland is about 7.5%. They can't be banked on that much if the rest of the country is turning.

Edit: Just heard the first remainer say 'we've got to listen to the country'...

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, all the analyses I'm reading are suggesting leave is highly likely now. It's still hard for me to fully believe it, I view Britain as a very conservative country when it comes to things like this and frankly never seriously considered populist rabble could win this campaign.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Ah well, if you ask people for their opinion you can hardly object when they give it to you.

[Agelastus]

Yeah, all the analyses I'm reading are suggesting leave is highly likely now. It's still hard for me to fully believe it, I view Britain as a very conservative country when it comes to things like this and frankly never seriously considered populist rabble could win this campaign.

Just out of interest, Otto, do you consider me to be a representative of said "populist rabble"?

[Richard Hakluyt]

Liverpool a pretty solid 58% remain.