Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

[Zanza]

We basically allow the heads of criminal gangs to run their operations from prison.  No reason Maduro couldn't do the same. 

You also allow heads of criminal gangs to run their operations from Mar-a-Lago. 

[mongers]

 So that's 4-7 million tonnes of crude oil, say they can get hold of a bunch of tankers averaging  250,000 tonnes, that's upto 28 tanker loads, how many days would it take for southern US refineries to process that?

[Tamas]

Not even sure which one of the crisis threads to put this in but apparently the Russian said oil tanker which earlier fled boarding near Venezuela by sporting a Russian flag and had been expecting Russian Navy escorts back to Murmansk, is being boarded by US forces

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Not even sure which one of the crisis threads to put this in but apparently the Russian said oil tanker which earlier fled boarding near Venezuela by sporting a Russian flag and had been expecting Russian Navy escorts back to Murmansk, is being boarded by US forces

Probably trying to preempt issues with the sub the orcs may or may not have sent out escort the ship.
Who knows anymore in this ever dumber than dumbest timelines

[The Minsky Moment]

It's like we never learn.  Remember once upon a time when America invaded and Iraq and said the oil would pay for the cost many times over?   And it took nearly a decade for Iraqi oil production to reach pre-conflict levels?

It will take YEARS to fix up the problems with the Venezuelan oil industry. It will take enormous amounts of investment and years for that investment to yield results.  Will that investment happen? Here are some obstacles:

1) Uncertain political and legal environment.  These investments have payoff periods measured in decades.
2) Weak demand/supply conditions in present market environment. E.g. last year demand increased 900K barrels per day but supply by 4 million.
3) Venezuelan oil tends to be poor quality heavy grades that is more costly to refine.  Yes it is true that many of the Gulf Coast refineries are currently set up to process these grades.  But US refineries are already running close to full capacity, so the refineries would have to be expanded as well.  In loose supply conditions when price is falling (as now) that product is the first to become uneconomic.
4) The background trend worldwide is a shift to renewables, which have a more favorable output/cost ratio already which continues to improve.  Although the Stupid Squad around Trump pretends not to know this, the oil majors definitely do.  They will be wary that billions thrown on developing dirty and expensive to process reserves could end up as uneconomic stranded assets.

[Tamas]

In any case, I am just glad that a Russian flag is not a get out of jail for free card with this administration, otherwise sanctions against either Venezuela or Russia would have been rendered toothless.

[The Minsky Moment]

Despite her public praise of him, the US president has not met Machado and has rarely spoken about her or mentioned fresh elections in Venezuela. Instead he has stressed the need to open up the oil industry and to crack down on drug trafficking.

Some influential US investors in Venezuelan debt and oil industry players also want to see Machado kept out of any Trump plan for the South American nation, viewing her as too radical. They prefer what they see as the safer option of working with Rodríguez to make quick profits and have lobbied in Washington for this option.

"The US wants results, not people who talk," said one person involved in dealmaking with the Venezuelan government. "Can María Corina deliver? No, she can't."

This is American foreign policy.  A corrupt corporatist clusterfuck.  Why did Trump wipe out the relative pennies given out by USAID but then give a massive aid package to Argentina?  Because his hedge fund buddies were taking terrible losses on their investments in the Milei fiasco but they have no investments in sub-Saharan Africa. Why play footsie with the Russians and China?  So that NVIDIA can sell chips and US multinationals can do business in Moscow.  Why the strong tilt to the Saudis and Gulf States?  The answer is obvious and has little to do with geopolitics or US national interests. 

[Zanza]

This is American foreign policy.  A corrupt corporatist clusterfuck.  Why did Trump wipe out the relative pennies given out by USAID but then give a massive aid package to Argentina?  Because his hedge fund buddies were taking terrible losses on their investments in the Milei fiasco but they have no investments in sub-Saharan Africa. Why play footsie with the Russians and China?  So that NVIDIA can sell chips and US multinationals can do business in Moscow.  Why the strong tilt to the Saudis and Gulf States?  The answer is obvious and has little to do with geopolitics or US national interests. 

Then let's hope these corporate interests can dissuade him from attacking Canada or Greenland. That must be bad for business.

[The Minsky Moment]

Denmark doesn't have enough fat US contracts or enough US based bondholders to matter to Trump.  They are vulnerable.

[PJL]

Denmark doesn't have enough fat US contracts or enough US based bondholders to matter to Trump.  They are vulnerable.

That might explain why the UK govt did that big deal with Palantir then a few weeks ago.

[The Minsky Moment]

That might explain why the UK govt did that big deal with Palantir then a few weeks ago.

Yep, made that point in the UK thread.

[celedhring]

So, I saw that the judge on the Maduro case is 92 years old.

Is it forbidden in the US to retire if you hold an office?

No.  But federal judge appointments are for life and judges can be removed only by voluntary retirement, impeachment or death.

The laws setting up the federal court system allow judges to assume "senior status" when they reach a certain age.  Senior status judges can maintain a much-reduced case load, but they maintain their full salary, with COLA adjustment, an office, and a complement of law clerks and staff.  So it is a very attractive option.

Moreover, because busy districts like SDNY are chronically understaffed, they rely on their complement of senior status judges to keep up with workload.

I had a case in front of Judge Hellerstein in 2008-2010. Around the same time he was still handling a lot of the 9-11 related litigation.  He was very much on the ball.  Of course there is a difference between mid-70s and 92.

Mid-70s is when judges are legally required to retire over here, that seems an okay age to me. All in all, having no age limit whatsoever for retirement in such important posts seems a terrible design, even if this particular nonagenarian might still retain his acuity.