Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

[Jacob]

I'd say that I have read about quite a lot of contacts between the US and both the Venezuelan VP but also others in the regime. I wouldn't dismiss that at this stage - I think it's too soon to tell if there's soemthing there or not - any change of position from within the regime will take time politically, need to be managed etc. I suspect an early sign in the next few months might be if the new Venezuelan readers keep the Cuban security detail or not. I think the first sign to moving towards basically falling into "line" with the US would be removing the men with guns around you provided by a regime absolutely hostile to that.

My understanding is that of the 40 killed in Venezuela, 32 were Cuban security for Maduro.

Ah... so you think, potentially, that the VP's statements about "Maduro still being the president" may be about managing the transition adroitly rather than rejecting Turmp's terms?

That could very well be true, but I feel like Trump is going to randomly let the cat out of the bag relatively soon if that's the case.

[Tonitrus]

We basically allow the heads of criminal gangs to run their operations from prison.  No reason Maduro couldn't do the same. 

[Sheilbh]

Ah... so you think, potentially, that the VP's statements about "Maduro still being the president" may be about managing the transition adroitly rather than rejecting Turmp's terms?

That could very well be true, but I feel like Trump is going to randomly let the cat out of the bag relatively soon if that's the case.

Yeah. Basically I think there are two countries involved with their own politics and elites etc to manage.

Even if the US have been cultivating people within the regime (which it sounds like they have), that won't be an overnight change. Especially not if the people with guns in the presidential palace are being provided by a hostile state and have just lost 30 comrades.

In terms of what next I think it's very unlikely we'll see US troops on the ground. Which I think means probably operating within the current regime. If that's the case then I think it could be anything from basically an internal power-player leveraging US anger against Maduro to grab him (while also giving them a fantastic bloody shirt to wave), in which case the US got played, to a transition to a still corrupt, still autocratic regime open to US business. If there are forces in the regime basically willing to align more with what rump wants then I think there'll be a lot of internal forces to neutralise/align, get your own people in place (especially in security positions) etc.

I think it's too soon to tell but in terms of the "what next" the stories about a lot of very high level contacts with the regime and a general lack of interest in the opposition, I think that's at least the US strategy.

[mongers]

Over the next year the US will abduct every Venezuelan, before panicking over the massive immigration from South America and deporting all of them back to Venezuela to start the process over again.

 

[Razgovory]

I would like to know what are government is actually planning to do with Venezuela.

From what Syt posted above:

"What we are going to react to is very simple: what do you do? Not what you're saying publicly, what happens... Do the drugs stop coming? Are the changes made? Is Iran expelled? Is Hezbollah and Iran no longer able to operate against our interests from Venezuela?" (Watch)
"It's running policy — the policy with regards to this. We want Venezuela to move in a certain direction because not only do we think it's good for the people of Venezuela, it's in our national interest."

... it sounds like "nothing". The US doesn't in fact have Venezuela, so they (you) are not going to do anything with it.

It sounds to me like they expected Venezuela to suddenly take direction from the US because Maduro was abducted. And, I suppose, they'll potentially take other similar (non-Congressional-approval-requiring) short limited actions to look strong and attempt to intimidate Venezuela's leadership if the leadership doesn't improve in that "certain direction".

Which I expect Venezuela won't.

Maybe they'll abduct the VP next?

Yeah, I read all that.  We don't even have the concept of a plan.  It's just rambling nonsense.  It's like rule by meme.  I don't care that much about Venezuela, but I really prefer the US doesn't try to occupy the country.  I'm not that enthused with the "take their oil" idea that Trump is talking about.

Some Democrats want to defend Maduro, but I'm not one of them.  I would have preferred if we just continued ignoring Venezuela, like we have done for the last two decades.  They didn't seem to be much of a threat.  Still, I'm not going to complain too much that the guy was captured.  Unless the country falls into civil war or the US invades.  Then I will complain quite a bit.

[Tonitrus]

I haven't heard of any Dems defending Maduro.

[Valmy]

Yeah, I read all that.  We don't even have the concept of a plan.  It's just rambling nonsense.  It's like rule by meme.  I don't care that much about Venezuela, but I really prefer the US doesn't try to occupy the country.  I'm not that enthused with the "take their oil" idea that Trump is talking about.

Some Democrats want to defend Maduro, but I'm not one of them.  I would have preferred if we just continued ignoring Venezuela, like we have done for the last two decades.  They didn't seem to be much of a threat.  Still, I'm not going to complain too much that the guy was captured.  Unless the country falls into civil war or the US invades.  Then I will complain quite a bit.

I guess I am not clear how important Maduro even is. This isn't like taking out Hugo Chavez, It is possible Maduro was just the dude at the top of an establish regime that has been in power for decades now. He seems to me to be easily replaceable. But I could be wrong, maybe he was this charismatic leader and without him the whole thing collapses. I don't know for sure.

The thing to complain about is just going into another country and capturing their President. Not that this asshole was worth defending. And, of course, now if some disaster occurs because of this it is now our fault.

Of course we also have to have some kind of legal basis of putting him on trial and finding him guilty of a crime.