Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Agelastus]

Liverpool remain by over 16%, but with a turnout of only 64%. That's way below the average for England, at least so far.

[Sheilbh]

Liverpool

Baffling analysis by John McDonnell there by the way.

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally on London Greenwich is apparently too close to call

[Monoriu]

Hong Kong stock market opens sharply lower on expection that the referendum is lost

[Neil]

But pretty terrifying for as someone who has worried for a while that we're splitting into different countries/cultures. How do we get back from this?

You can't.  As people have lost faith in experts and elites, as they have come to feel that their lives will be worse than those of their parents, they've come to feel that they can't help but want to make a change.  And if there's one thing that supernational institutions are bad at, it's change.

At any rate, even if Remain pulls out a narrow win, it's a temporary win.  People's lives are going to get worse, and five or ten years later, they'll have another referendum.

[mongers]

Ceredigion, where I used to live goes Remain 55-45%. 

Pity only 12.5 people live there.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Ceredigion, where I used to live goes Remain 55-45%. 

Pity only 12.5 people live there.

Colin the sheepdog's vote just tilted it to remain 

[mongers]

Liverpool

Baffling analysis by John McDonnell there by the way.

John Mann MP, seems to be the authentic voice of why the disaffected have voted Leave.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, all the analyses I'm reading are suggesting leave is highly likely now. It's still hard for me to fully believe it, I view Britain as a very conservative country when it comes to things like this and frankly never seriously considered populist rabble could win this campaign.

Just out of interest, Otto, do you consider me to be a representative of said "populist rabble"?

No, there's maybe only 3-4 people on all of Languish I think would get caught up in that sort of thing. I frankly believe that there are strong and valid political reasons Britain could vote to leave, I think if Britain had left in say, 93 had negotiations on the nature of her membership hadn't worked out, I don't believe Britain would be a radioactive wasteland today. I think it'd likely be essentially the same as it is now, institutions and structures would've adapted, and at least a large portion of the economic benefits would've still been developed between Britain and the EU anyway.

I just think the campaign itself for leave has been nativist/populism, I don't believe if you support leave you are necessarily either of those things. For America I think Remain is by far in our best interests, but for Britain I can at least "see" the political argument for leaving. I actually think that right now Britain has a pretty sweet deal in regard to the EU, and I have always said Cameron needed to secure some sort of promise that Britain wouldn't be "strong-armed" into "ever closer union." I think the EU's concessions on wording there are meaningful. But part of me actually thinks the special concessions in a way may weaken the EU as other member states will be angry about them and it'll create long term resentments. I think also that they can be eroded over time.

Essentially I think if Britain does not want to be "all in", then it should be out. But in the moderate long term I think staying in to a degree lets Britain have her cake and eat it too, and I suspect Britain would always be able to hold off some of the worst of Brussels overreach.

[Monoriu]

At any rate, even if Remain pulls out a narrow win, it's a temporary win.  People's lives are going to get worse, and five or ten years later, they'll have another referendum.

...on whether the Euro should be adopted

[Valmy]

It is going to be close boys! Remember when I bitched about how important issues of national destiny should not be decided by 50.00001% of the population during the Scottish nonsense? Well here we are again. One way or the other.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Are the Brits really going to stay up all night for this?

[mongers]

Are the Brits really going to stay up all night for this?

Might as well; political theatre, economic uncertainty, potential yobbo triumphalism, what's not not like.

[Valmy]

At any rate, even if Remain pulls out a narrow win, it's a temporary win.  People's lives are going to get worse, and five or ten years later, they'll have another referendum.

Which is why Britain is basically ensuring its dysfunction by this precedent of plebiscite politics. Rather sad for a nation that so long represented representative government.

[Valmy]

And it continues to tighten. Lovely.