Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Monoriu]

At any rate, even if Remain pulls out a narrow win, it's a temporary win.  People's lives are going to get worse, and five or ten years later, they'll have another referendum.

Which is why Britain is basically ensuring its dysfunction by this precedent of plebiscite politics. Rather sad for a nation that so long represented representative government.

At least it will serve as a reminder to the rest of the EU why they should never do anything of this sort. 

[Agelastus]

I stayed up all night for the last two general elections, and this referendum is more important than either of them (although the 2010 election does run it close given the economic situation at the time), so why should I not stay up this time?

[Sheilbh]

Paul Mason's tweets interesting here though he fucked the numbering ():
At 02:15 bst it's looking *narrowly* likely that Brexit will happen. Here's why (1/5): High turnout in pro-Leave areas & higher margins
(2/5) In big metropolitan areas likely to back Remain: lower turnout & tighter margins. As to the politics: it's very clear...
(3/5) Brexit - Culturally "working class" places have had a real political movement going on for weeks. Friends mobilising friends etc...
While this is clearly a "working class revolt" vs free mvt (1/3) my reading of small-town results says more...
There's clearly a salariat thing going on as well - small English towns, Ceredigion etc having bigger Leave votes than expected (2/3)
(3/3) I'm surprised by how high the turnout is in pro-Leave areas. More than a GOTV operation; cultural movement esp in Wales

Rhonda for leave!

Latest from Hanretty:

My predictions continue to be much more pessimistic for Remain than the betting markets, though they seem to be in between estimates from Michael Thrasher and JP Morgan.
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0
(81 of 382 areas reporting.)
Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.1 percent.
(90% prediction interval: 46.1 to 48.1 percent)

[mongers]

I stayed up all night for the last two general elections, and this referendum is more important than either of them (although the 2010 election does run it close given the economic situation at the time), so why should I not stay up this time?

We won't have jobs to go to tomorrow morning or more likely by next week, will we?   

[OttoVonBismarck]

I stayed up all night for the last two general elections, and this referendum is more important than either of them (although the 2010 election does run it close given the economic situation at the time), so why should I not stay up this time?

Just curious culturally, I wasn't sure if Britain had that sort of election night following that America did.

[Sheilbh]

Are the Brits really going to stay up all night for this?

It's like election night.

With similar results. Labour improves its vote in London, gets slaughtered everywhere else

Which is why Britain is basically ensuring its dysfunction by this precedent of plebiscite politics. Rather sad for a nation that so long represented representative government.

It's the right thing to do about a major constitutional issue. We should have had one going in (and we did on remaining in 1976) and its been clear for years that people are unhappy with the EU we're right to have this vote.

Maybe if things had changed in 1992 or with the French vote, or the Irish vote, or the Dutch vote, or the Greek vote, then the British vote wouldn't be needed.

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally Labour's message on immigration tonight is all over the place

Edit: One thought, it'd be nice to hear as much about the North as we are tonight the rest of the time. Maybe that's part of why tonight's happening.

[Monoriu]

Remain's % continues to go down in the BBC count.  It doesn't look good at all. 

[Agelastus]

I stayed up all night for the last two general elections, and this referendum is more important than either of them (although the 2010 election does run it close given the economic situation at the time), so why should I not stay up this time?

Just curious culturally, I wasn't sure if Britain had that sort of election night following that America did.

I stayed up all night for 1992 and (almost all night) for 1997, went to bed for 2001 and 2005, and then did as noted above.

There's a pattern there.

I stayed up all night for the last two general elections, and this referendum is more important than either of them (although the 2010 election does run it close given the economic situation at the time), so why should I not stay up this time?

We won't have jobs to go to tomorrow morning or more likely by next week, will we?   

Actually, I work mostly from home these days for a franchisee of a company that deals exclusively in second hand goods.

I think my job is (probably) safe.

And Sterling's dropped again (from 1.45 to 1.43.)

[LaCroix]

is there a map that shows the results, or is it just the telegraph's endless list of names?

[Drakken]

So who's willing to bet the EU will kindly ask another referendum a year from now, just to "confirm" the result? 

[Ed Anger]

I'm up watching this. But I suffer from a raging case of insomnia.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I stayed up all night for the last two general elections, and this referendum is more important than either of them (although the 2010 election does run it close given the economic situation at the time), so why should I not stay up this time?

We won't have jobs to go to tomorrow morning or more likely by next week, will we?   

Luckily I bought 20kg of basmati rice just a week ago 

[Valmy]

It's the right thing to do about a major constitutional issue. We should have had one going in (and we did on remaining in 1976) and its been clear for years that people are unhappy with the EU we're right to have this vote.

Well I am just going to have to disagree with you on that. This is elected officials not having the guts to defend what they think is right for the country or do what is right for the country. So they pass on the responsibility back to the people. What exactly are they being elected for again? If plebiscite politics did not have a disastrous record of centuries of failure I might understand...but then so do confederations and the EU decided to go that way.

[Grey Fox]