Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Has there been any evidence SNP is going to vote leave simply because it makes their chances of independence much higher than Britain remaining in?

According to polls about a third of SNP supporters support Leave. Not clear why.

Strong result in Basildon for Leave.

[mongers]

Has there been any evidence SNP is going to vote leave simply because it makes their chances of independence much higher than Britain remaining in?

I think most wouldn't actively do that, those that want a second bit of the cherry would just vote with their slippers and not show up at the polling station.

[OttoVonBismarck]

For some reason this election is giving me a grim feeling about our election in November, it's hard not to feel that UKIP/Leave represents a strain of nativism/angry "globalization losers", that if it could propel Britain to this could conceivably propel Trump to the White House.

Although I feel Hillary Clinton is a far tougher politician, and more effective campaigner, than Cameron has been, so it isn't directly comparable.

[Sheilbh]

On the other hand very surprised by Swindon being so close...

[mongers]

For some reason this election is giving me a grim feeling about our election in November, it's hard not to feel that UKIP/Leave represents a strain of nativism/angry "globalization losers", that if it could propel Britain to this could conceivably propel Trump to the White House.

Although I feel Hillary Clinton is a far tougher politician, and more effective campaigner, than Cameron has been, so it isn't directly comparable.

Agreed, I feel this could embolden Trump supporters to really believe they can win in November.

[Sheilbh]

But, also from the Guardian, Hartlepool: expected Brexit vote 60% or so - actual Brexit vote 70%.

Edit: Higher turnout than a general too.

[mongers]

On the other hand very surprised by Swindon being so close...

Well it has a traditional working class, but I think its largely 'successfully' transitioned to service sector work.

[Kleves]

Agreed, I feel this could embolden Trump supporters to really believe they can win in November.

I don't know that many Trump supporters know what the European Union is or that Britain is a member.

[Agelastus]

According to polls about a third of SNP supporters support Leave. Not clear why.

It probably goes back to the Sixties and Seventies when they were very anti-EU (partly on the completely logical grounds that joining the EU was incompatible with Scottish Independence.)

That third of their support is probably a large chunk of their core base that have stayed with that opinion even though their leadership has gone from anti- to tepid to pro- European.

[Richard Hakluyt]

They still have the vote Kleves.

[mongers]

Who are the 1,000 people (25%) living in the City of London who voted to leave? 

[Sheilbh]

Chris Hanretty, psephology geek, expert ( ) and academic has posted his latest prediction:

Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.32
(15 of 382 areas reporting.)
Predicted vote share for Remain: 48.9 percent.
(90% prediction interval: 44.5 to 53.3 percent)

https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.ain5zi509

[Sheilbh]

Who are the 1,000 people (25%) living in the City of London who voted to leave? 

Hedgies.

Edit: Also, only a couple, but looks like Wales is voting Leave a little more strongly than I would've guessed...

[mongers]

They still have the vote Kleves.

Yeah it only has to be a facebook 'inforgraphic' for the idea over that 'If the Brits can give a giant FU to the Elites, you can do the same to the Washington elite."

[mongers]

Who are the 1,000 people (25%) living in the City of London who voted to leave? 

Hedgies.