Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

I'm off to the NE in a couple of weeks time to see family, it is a dreadful shitty place; I will be sad to leave the enlightened cosmopolitanism of Preston even for the short period I'll be on the East coast 

[Agelastus]

I'm not quite sure why Britain voted after Obama noted his opposition to leave. I feel this repudiation of America's authority is unacceptable.

More seriously, his intervention sounded a lot like a threat; given it was coming from an ally we'd supported over such unpopular issues as the Iraq War I don't think it was taken very well among leave and leaning-to-leave circles.

[Sheilbh]

God Labour are in trouble

Why do you say that?

From the Guardian, Shadow Leader of the House Chris Bryant on former leader Ed Miliband: 'I might go and punch him because he's a tosspot and he left the party in the state it's in.'

Also from the Guardian, third sharpest fall in Sterling after 2008 and Black Wednesday

[OttoVonBismarck]

If leave passes, and for some reason I still lean towards "trusting" British structural conservatism and expect remain may yet eke out a win, I hope that the United States makes it clear that Britain remains our principal ally in the world, regardless of the EU. I wouldn't really expect that with Obama, Obama has been icy towards the Brits his entire Presidency.

[Sheilbh]

I'm not quite sure why Britain voted after Obama noted his opposition to leave. I feel this repudiation of America's authority is unacceptable.

Send in the legions

I'm off to the NE in a couple of weeks time to see family, it is a dreadful shitty place; I will be sad to leave the enlightened cosmopolitanism of Preston even for the short period I'll be on the East coast 

I've never been to the North East, but it does sound awful

Especially compared to the North West which is generally wonderful. I say generally because I've spent time in Southport.

[alfred russel]

God Labour are in trouble

Why do you say that?

Looks like the turnout in Labour areas is higher and it looks like that is because of Leave voters.

I'm not sure that Labour, having just watched Angela Eagle, has an answer to that. And it's striking that this is the one area that moderate Labour MPs forced a change on Corbyn. It equally looks like turnout in comfortable, remain-ish Tory areas may be lower than normal and it's voters you'd expect to remain who stayed at home.

It's very, very early - but I think we're on our way out.

Edit: It looks like non-voters are turning out and there's a big class element and working class voters are saying Leave. That's a problem for Labour. It was dismissed by a lot of people when it was suggested that UKIP might be more of a threat to Labour than the Tories - I think it's happening now.

On the flip side, if leave prevails, arent we also witnessing tonight the effective death of the ukip?

Also, doesnt this mean there are lots of natural labour voters that are dormant right now, that just need to hear the right message from the right person?

[Richard Hakluyt]

Interesting results, looks like we might be leaving. I'm very interested in the Broxbourne vote, I would have thought it was too comfortable a place to have such a big leave vote, never been there so I may have the wrong image of the place.

I'm in the New Forest, a similarly well-off area and I've just heard leave sentiment* all the time.



* polite word, there arguments haven't been especially reasoned.

Even when I lived down south it was in London and Brighton, in very urban and somewhat bohemian circles. I did have a girlfriend who lived in Godalming for a time...............found the place utterly weird, like visiting a strange and foreign land.

(This is my excuse for what looks like a failed prediction as to the vote)

[OttoVonBismarck]

FiveThirtyEight has done some podcasts on British polling, they indicate generally British polling isn't great.

[mongers]

Interesting results, looks like we might be leaving. I'm very interested in the Broxbourne vote, I would have thought it was too comfortable a place to have such a big leave vote, never been there so I may have the wrong image of the place.

I'm in the New Forest, a similarly well-off area and I've just heard leave sentiment* all the time.



* polite word, there arguments haven't been especially reasoned.

Even when I lived down south it was in London and Brighton, in very urban and somewhat bohemian circles. I did have a girlfriend who lived in Godalming for a time...............found the place utterly weird, like visiting a strange and foreign land.

(This is my excuse for what looks like a failed prediction as to the vote)

Well you're not along here, I think Tyr has been closest to the 'truth' of this referendum, as alluded to in his fear of what was happening in his home area.

[Sheilbh]

On the flip side, if leave prevails, arent we also witnessing tonight the effective death of the ukip?

I don't think so. If anything I think it would make them change into something stronger. They would be able to focus on the deindustrialised Labour heartland without having to appeal to the Nigel Farage/golf club wing of conservatism.

Also, doesnt this mean there are lots of natural labour voters that are dormant right now, that just need to hear the right message from the right person?

Yes. Which is bad for Labour for two reasons. One is that's what Jeremy Corbyn's argument is - he can win back non voters. I could be wrong but I doubt Leave voters have been waiting all this time to vote for an IRA sympathising vegetarian from North London.

Second is that pro-Europeanism was the most enduring legacy of New Labour. It was the heart of what Mandy started in the mid-80s. If that doesn't work with the Labour vote it leaves big questions for Labour routes to a majority.

Turnout in Glasgow is apparently around 55%, which is bad for remain.

[Richard Hakluyt]

One thing though, we have yet to get a result from a big city area with lots of immigrants. Unless you count Newcastle, but that is a very provincial place compared to say Liverpool or Manchester.

[Agelastus]

On the flip side, if leave prevails, arent we also witnessing tonight the effective death of the ukip?

UKIP will probably hold together until any leave negotiations are done simply because of the distrust of Westminster across large sections of the country. Whether Farage can convert it into a different, more stable, vehicle for his ambitions in that time is open to significant question.

I actually hope that if Westminster pulls off a reasonable exit strategy from Europe, if Leave wins, that some of that distrust will dissolve; but then, I do have a tendency towards the romantic.

[mongers]

Just over 1 million votes logged out of 33.6 million votes cast.

Hartlepool goes Leave by 70% to 30%

edit:
Basildon votes cast 98,062   Leave - 67,251  Remain - 30,748

69% - 31%

[OttoVonBismarck]

Has there been any evidence SNP is going to vote leave simply because it makes their chances of independence much higher than Britain remaining in?

[Sheilbh]

FiveThirtyEight has done some podcasts on British polling, they indicate generally British polling isn't great.

There are problems with UK polling - though polling a referendum is very difficult if you don't have them that often. Personally I think Nate Silver is just sore because whenever he attempts to predict British politics he gets it catastrophically wrong. In 2010 he guessed Labour on 214 and Lib Dems on 101 which a conversation with any British person would've told him was bollocks

Other psephologists like John Curtice tend to get it a little bit better.