The EU thread

[Valmy]

Obviously just talking in the abstract and in no way related to anything else that's going on in the world

Yeah. We aren't putting sanctions on ourselves or anything 

[Razgovory]

Russia is collapsing. But it is a slow motion car crash. And Ukraine was in far worse shape than they were before this war even started. The fact they couldn't easily run over a smaller country in truly desperate shape is pathetic but predicable. Ukraine's army is full of middle aged men using backwards equipment.

And me saying I think the Euros could stop a Russian offensive is hilariously different from suggesting they are going to easily drive on Moscow and the whole thing is going to collapse in five minutes.

You, on the other hand, keep acting like nobody is a match for the mighty Russian bear and it is practically futile to even try. Just ridiculous.

Yeah, so when is the collapse going to happen?  We've been waiting three years now.  You don't like any of my sources "Fake News!" "Hoax!"  "Bias!"  Provide me with something to the contrary, show me something that Russia is collapsing.  Show me something that shows Russia is at full war capacity.  I am not enamored with the Russian bear, there are military forces that can beat them, it's just that none of them are in Western Europe.  It is all academic anyway, the balls of light are not going to fight Russia.  There is little appetite for increasing aid to Ukraine, I posted some polling on that a way back.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Yeah, so when is the collapse going to happen?

That cannot be predicted.  The Assad regime was teetering on the verge of collapse for years, until suddenly last year the right stimulus was applied and the whole thing collapsed in a matter of a couple weeks.

Saying that Russia is collapsing, or that one swift kick could bring the whole thing down is not saying the next one will do so.  Complex systems can operate in life-threatening conditions for longer than outside observers think they should.  Maybe direct EU intervention does it, maybe it doesn't.  It might, though, and writing off the possibility because the last four kicks didn't work is the same as claiming this one definitely would.

[Valmy]

Well that's the thing. Russia is terminally ill. It is on its way to collapse. For a bit there it looked like Putin was turning the ship around, but all that progress was thrown away. But we are a generation or two away from total collapse. Or not. Countries collapse slowly then all at once.

And Russia taking a bunch of territory in Ukraine is not going to help anything because as bad as the situation is in Russia, it is worse in Ukraine.

This war, particularly the way it is playing out, is mutual destruction for both countries.

The EU armies, for all their military and political weaknesses, are more than a match for this corpse of a country. Particularly in a defensive struggle.

Though it does really puzzle and concern me that Europe is falling behind with drone warfare. Talk about an obvious way European militaries could be competitive. High paying tech jobs for Europeans with no risk of casualties. There is absolutely no reason Europe shouldn't be on the cutting edge here.

[Razgovory]

Yeah, so when is the collapse going to happen?

That cannot be predicted.  The Assad regime was teetering on the verge of collapse for years, until suddenly last year the right stimulus was applied and the whole thing collapsed in a matter of a couple weeks.

Saying that Russia is collapsing, or that one swift kick could bring the whole thing down is not saying the next one will do so.  Complex systems can operate in life-threatening conditions for longer than outside observers think they should.  Maybe direct EU intervention does it, maybe it doesn't.  It might, though, and writing off the possibility because the last four kicks didn't work is the same as claiming this one definitely would.

So how do we actually knowing it is collapsing?

[Josquius]

I just read a piece looking at Russias problems today

https://themilitaryanalyst.com/2025/05/02/russian-economic-update-its-getting-worse/

[Jacob]

I just read a piece looking at Russias problems today

https://themilitaryanalyst.com/2025/05/02/russian-economic-update-its-getting-worse/

Well that's an encouraging read.

I'm not familiar with the source. What sort of track record does he have?

[Valmy]

So how do we actually knowing it is collapsing?

Unless Russia is magical somehow it is virtually a mathematical equation.

Their birth rate has collapsed. The life expectancy has collapsed. Rapid rise in alcoholism to lost decade in the Soviet Union levels. An economy reliant on oil prices and just generally very grim economic numbers.

And this isn't some kind of new things as a result of the war, this has been a problem for awhile.

Well ok the surge in alcoholism probably is a result of the war.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

So how do we actually knowing it is collapsing?

The economic indicators Sheilbh posted are evidence of that.  Russia is burning very hot right now to keep up with the demands of the war, and have had to ratchet that up over the years in order to keep up.  They have been able to navigate this so far, but at some point their ability to do that will run out.  I can't and won't predict where that point is, or what additional stressors will hasten it.

I get the impression that you didn't want to accept that as evidence because you don't think Russia is collapsing since you think "one swift kick [...] is not going to bring this structure down".  Do you think all collapses are rapid?  Was the Assad regime not collapsing until HTS started their final offensive?

[Josquius]

I just read a piece looking at Russias problems today

https://themilitaryanalyst.com/2025/05/02/russian-economic-update-its-getting-worse/

Well that's an encouraging read.

I'm not familiar with the source. What sort of track record does he have?

He often tends to look on the bright side. To be taken with a pinch of salt. But usually has the basic facts straight.
Hes a military guy rather than an economist so be taken here is if all continues as it is Russia is fucked, though they could well have some potential solution he doesn't know about.
I would be curious to see a specialists take some day.

[Razgovory]

So how do we actually knowing it is collapsing?

The economic indicators Sheilbh posted are evidence of that.  Russia is burning very hot right now to keep up with the demands of the war, and have had to ratchet that up over the years in order to keep up.  They have been able to navigate this so far, but at some point their ability to do that will run out.  I can't and won't predict where that point is, or what additional stressors will hasten it.

I get the impression that you didn't want to accept that as evidence because you don't think Russia is collapsing since you think "one swift kick [...] is not going to bring this structure down".  Do you think all collapses are rapid?  Was the Assad regime not collapsing until HTS started their final offensive?

Because we have been fed this for 3 years now.  This year Russia collapsed forward pushing out Ukraine mostly out of the Kursk region.  I have lost hope.  Wishing that Russia simply drops over dead is not much of a strategy.  Basically for Ukraine to win Europe needs to double it's military spending, possibly triple it.

[Razgovory]

So how do we actually knowing it is collapsing?

Unless Russia is magical somehow it is virtually a mathematical equation.

Their birth rate has collapsed. The life expectancy has collapsed. Rapid rise in alcoholism to lost decade in the Soviet Union levels. An economy reliant on oil prices and just generally very grim economic numbers.

And this isn't some kind of new things as a result of the war, this has been a problem for awhile.

Well ok the surge in alcoholism probably is a result of the war.

Except for the oil prices, the problems of Russia are the same as the problems of Ukraine.  I don't find that comforting.  

[Jacob]

Newsweek on the likelihood of direct war with Russia: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-preparing-war-nato-2067095

Nothing too new or shocking for folks here, I don't think.

[Tonitrus]

Josq, you don't have airpower or manufacturing capacity.  The European airforces are quite small, and your weapon manufacturing is still behind. 

French multirole fighters: 165
French close air-support/tac bombers: 64

British multirole fighters: 173
British attack helicopters: 78

russians have lost (documented losses) 138 fighters/bombers and 162 helicopters. The estimate (from Sep2024) is that they have about 300 strike aircraft remaining, with crappy maintenance and very stressed airframes.

Closing the sky over Ukraine would be much more feasible short term for european nations. This was a demand on day 1 from Ukraine btw, from 24Feb2022.

I'm looking at this
https://www.wdmma.org/russian-air-force.php
https://www.wdmma.org/royal-air-force-britain.php
https://www.wdmma.org/french-air-force.php

So, not great.  I question the readiness of French and British aircraft after decades of low military spending, if they can maintain a sustain campaign.  During the Libyan thing a decade ago they could not.

Less the worry of RU aircraft is their SAMs/IADS.  Their SAM coverage covers all of Ukraine without having to leave (pre-invasion) Russia.  Their air force might certainly lose...but they don't need to win control of the air (they don't have it now), they just need to deny it.

[Jacob]

I'd think that if Russia attacks NATO, whoever responds would be okay with targeting assets inside Russia proper.

I guess the question is how well the EU + UK would be able to take out those SAM and IADS assets.