The EU thread

[Tonitrus]

I've always thought the "cannot join NATO" excuse to be a bit thin...with some political will, just sign a bunch of separate mutual defense pacts.  A "NATO of the Willing" if you will.

After all, even without our current instability here in the States...Hungary would likely torpedo Ukraine membership as well.

[Razgovory]

And what happens if those units are attacked? Accidentally or purposefully.

Then that triggers the trip wire and brings in more substantial numbers. This is established NATO operating practice.

Also needs noting, if we pretend 25k is all the infantry the rest of Europe has and no more is coming... With Ukraine it would be enough to defeat Russia. The main thing Europe can add isn't in infantry, it's in air power and manufacturing capacity.

Josq, you don't have airpower or manufacturing capacity.  The European airforces are quite small, and your weapon manufacturing is still behind.  Your artillery shell production still can't meet Ukraine's needs, let alone for a European army fighting Russia.  The substantial numbers were suppose to be Americans, but they aren't coming.  If Europe puts boots on the ground you may very well see Chinese weapons, or even "volunteers" enter the fray.

Currently, the situation in Ukraine is a stalemate, but that might change rapidly like in Syria.  Particularly if Trump starts lifting sanctions on Russia.

[Zoupa]

Josq, you don't have airpower or manufacturing capacity.  The European airforces are quite small, and your weapon manufacturing is still behind. 

French multirole fighters: 165
French close air-support/tac bombers: 64

British multirole fighters: 173
British attack helicopters: 78

russians have lost (documented losses) 138 fighters/bombers and 162 helicopters. The estimate (from Sep2024) is that they have about 300 strike aircraft remaining, with crappy maintenance and very stressed airframes.

Closing the sky over Ukraine would be much more feasible short term for european nations. This was a demand on day 1 from Ukraine btw, from 24Feb2022.

[Josquius]

Josq, you don't have airpower or manufacturing capacity.  The European airforces are quite small, and your weapon manufacturing is still behind.

We've seen what a difference a few donated F16s made for Ukraine.
Even just the RAF alone if thrown into the war would be game changing.
For the actual use of keeping the peace Europe certainly has enough. 

Your artillery shell production still can't meet Ukraine's needs, let alone for a European army fighting Russia.  The substantial numbers were suppose to be Americans, but they aren't coming. 

The US isn't doing much better there it must be noted. The US is only able to supply so much because it has huge mothballed stocks like Russia.
Europe has of course gone too slow but it is today meeting Ukraines needs and expansion continues.
Besides. This is only a worry in case of a war. The entire point of the deployment is not to have a war.

If Europe puts boots on the ground you may very well see Chinese weapons, or even "volunteers" enter the fray.

This is just nuts. Of course you won't.
Though if China were to offer to help then they would be welcome.

Then that triggers the trip wire and brings in more substantial numbers. This is established NATO operating practice.

The problem is that we - or rather the EU - doesn't have "more substantial numbers" readily available to deploy in a coherent way at this moment. And it's not clear how long it would take to 1) assemble these "more substantial numbers" into a coherent fighting force, nor 2) deliver them to where the fighting is taking place.

Europe does have more however. When they say they'd struggle to get 25k in place they mean politically. Even as small as Europe's armies are they have more than that.
It's true a quick deployment to the east would be tough... But that isn't needed.

Also needs noting, if we pretend 25k is all the infantry the rest of Europe has and no more is coming... With Ukraine it would be enough to defeat Russia. The main thing Europe can add isn't in infantry, it's in air power and manufacturing capacity.

Ukraine is, as I understand it, currently experiencing manpower shortages.

They are. But they're managing to hold the Russians anyway.
Also needs noting they need more manpower than they have in the field due to the nature of the war.
With a different war: dominance of the air for instance, the numbers needed would be smaller.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

If Europe puts boots on the ground you may very well see Chinese weapons, or even "volunteers" enter the fray.

This is just nuts. Of course you won't.
Though if China were to offer to help then they would be welcome.

He means Chinese on the Russian side, Jos. The Chinese are, after all, committed to destroying or replacing the western order.

[Josquius]

If Europe puts boots on the ground you may very well see Chinese weapons, or even "volunteers" enter the fray.

This is just nuts. Of course you won't.
Though if China were to offer to help then they would be welcome.

He means Chinese on the Russian side, Jos. The Chinese are, after all, committed to destroying or replacing the western order.

Of course. Even as bad as China are having their troops keeping an eye on things could control the Russians misbehaviour - selectively of course, if they see an advantage in it they'll let the Russians do whatever.
It'll also help water down the moans of things being unequal if all the peace keepers are on the Ukrainian side. There are some in the global south who still don't accept Russia as the outright villain in this.

It's not going to happen of course. Russia wouldn't allow it and China has no interest.

[crazy canuck]

Interesting and in depth video on the French way of war, potentially of interest to military nerds and people interested
in geopolitics.

Near the end he addresses the scenario of a potential war against Russia. I haven't gotten this far, so I don't know what the conclusion is yet. But what I've watched so far is quite interesting.

I don't think his conclusion flows from the rest of his video, which is really quite good. According to him, it sounds like he's right, the French have mastered the concept of having just enough force necessary for the circumstance. His premise is that in a war with Russia, France won't have enough to fight the war, and Russia will outlast the French.

But I think what he underestimates is the ability of the French to ramp up to have just enough to deal with the Russians.

To the point that Zanza has made repeatedly. The Russians did not overwhelm the Ukrainians. It's very unlikely Russians can outlast the French.

[Duque de Bragança]

I agree with Jake - I'd add that I think the enablers bit provided by the US is really important. My understanding is that there is basically not a single deployment of any European force that does not rely on US logistical support - whether that's their strategic air lift for NATO forces in the Baltics or Romania, or for French troops in Sahel. It is all provided by the US at the minute and from what I understand very few European militaries have alternatives.

Or to provide another example (which is why I think Merz's move on infrastructure is as important as the rearming stuff), via Adam Tooze - Germany is the linchpin for European defence. It's the key hub for logistics and staging:

I like how the Iberian corridor goes under the sea for a while.  More seriously, there is a gauge change at the Basque side of the Pyrénées so I don't think this should be the preferred rail corridor. Catalonia has a mixed freight-passenger new international gauge linking to France.

Speaking of rail gauges that's also a problem with the Russian gauge for countries formerly Russian (Finland) or Soviet.

Brussels has been pushing for a unified international rail gauge, but with little success for now, even in Iberia, save for new high-speed lines, so not for freight trains.

[Razgovory]

Josq, you don't have airpower or manufacturing capacity.  The European airforces are quite small, and your weapon manufacturing is still behind. 

French multirole fighters: 165
French close air-support/tac bombers: 64

British multirole fighters: 173
British attack helicopters: 78

russians have lost (documented losses) 138 fighters/bombers and 162 helicopters. The estimate (from Sep2024) is that they have about 300 strike aircraft remaining, with crappy maintenance and very stressed airframes.

Closing the sky over Ukraine would be much more feasible short term for european nations. This was a demand on day 1 from Ukraine btw, from 24Feb2022.

I'm looking at this
https://www.wdmma.org/russian-air-force.php
https://www.wdmma.org/royal-air-force-britain.php
https://www.wdmma.org/french-air-force.php

So, not great.  I question the readiness of French and British aircraft after decades of low military spending, if they can maintain a sustain campaign.  During the Libyan thing a decade ago they could not.

[Razgovory]

If Europe puts boots on the ground you may very well see Chinese weapons, or even "volunteers" enter the fray.

This is just nuts. Of course you won't.
Though if China were to offer to help then they would be welcome.

He means Chinese on the Russian side, Jos. The Chinese are, after all, committed to destroying or replacing the western order.

Of course. Even as bad as China are having their troops keeping an eye on things could control the Russians misbehaviour - selectively of course, if they see an advantage in it they'll let the Russians do whatever.
It'll also help water down the moans of things being unequal if all the peace keepers are on the Ukrainian side. There are some in the global south who still don't accept Russia as the outright villain in this.

It's not going to happen of course. Russia wouldn't allow it and China has no interest.

There are already Chinese citizens fighting in Russia.  North Korea is already producing weapons for Russia, what happens when China does?

[Josquius]

If Europe puts boots on the ground you may very well see Chinese weapons, or even "volunteers" enter the fray.

This is just nuts. Of course you won't.
Though if China were to offer to help then they would be welcome.

He means Chinese on the Russian side, Jos. The Chinese are, after all, committed to destroying or replacing the western order.

Of course. Even as bad as China are having their troops keeping an eye on things could control the Russians misbehaviour - selectively of course, if they see an advantage in it they'll let the Russians do whatever.
It'll also help water down the moans of things being unequal if all the peace keepers are on the Ukrainian side. There are some in the global south who still don't accept Russia as the outright villain in this.

It's not going to happen of course. Russia wouldn't allow it and China has no interest.

There are already Chinese citizens fighting in Russia.  North Korea is already producing weapons for Russia, what happens when China does?

They already are.
As said I don't think it's at all likely they'd send troops. The peace keepers will all be on the Ukrainian side. You're the one who raised this.

[Jacob]

I don't think Chinese fighters in Ukraine is more substantial than other random 3rd countries, like Colombians or whatever.

I also don't know if China sees it in their interest to actively support Russia to win in Ukraine and openly break with the EU.

But if China throws even a fraction of its production capacity towards supporting Russia, then Ukraine and the EU is going to be in big trouble IMO. I haven't seen any indication that it's on the table at this moment. China has, IMO, been quite restrained (thankfully).

[Razgovory]

I don't think Chinese fighters in Ukraine is more substantial than other random 3rd countries, like Colombians or whatever.

I also don't know if China sees it in their interest to actively support Russia to win in Ukraine and openly break with the EU.

But if China throws even a fraction of its production capacity towards supporting Russia, then Ukraine and the EU is going to be in big trouble IMO. I haven't seen any indication that it's on the table at this moment. China has, IMO, been quite restrained (thankfully).

Chinese fighter in Ukraine means that China is allowing Russia to recruit people in China.  It is not in China's interest to see Russia collapse, and a defeat in Ukraine could result in a Russian collapse.  China doesn't want chaos on it's border or pro-Western regime on its borders.  They would also like a Russian ally when the time comes for Taiwan.

[Zoupa]

Josq, you don't have airpower or manufacturing capacity.  The European airforces are quite small, and your weapon manufacturing is still behind. 

French multirole fighters: 165
French close air-support/tac bombers: 64

British multirole fighters: 173
British attack helicopters: 78

russians have lost (documented losses) 138 fighters/bombers and 162 helicopters. The estimate (from Sep2024) is that they have about 300 strike aircraft remaining, with crappy maintenance and very stressed airframes.

Closing the sky over Ukraine would be much more feasible short term for european nations. This was a demand on day 1 from Ukraine btw, from 24Feb2022.

I'm looking at this
https://www.wdmma.org/russian-air-force.php
https://www.wdmma.org/royal-air-force-britain.php
https://www.wdmma.org/french-air-force.php

If these numbers were anywhere close to real, the war would be over in 3 weeks.

[Razgovory]

You could post your source...