The EU thread

[Tamas]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hungary-blocks-eu-statement-criticising-china-over-hong-kong-diplomats-say-2021-04-16/

Hungary has blocked a European Union statement criticising China's new security law in Hong Kong, two diplomats said, in a move likely to undermine efforts to confront Beijing's curbing of freedoms in the former British colony.

The EU, which aims to support Britain and the United States in upholding human rights in Hong Kong, was due to make its statement on Monday at a meeting of EU foreign ministers, but failed to win the necessary agreement from all 27 EU states.

"Hungary's argument was that the EU already has too many issues with China," a senior EU diplomat told Reuters. A second senior diplomat confirmed the blockage and Hungary's position. An EU official said the statement had been withdrawn from the EU's approval process.

[Josquius]

As corona fades the EU really needs to get cracking with post brexit reforms for kicking out those nations that drop below the standards.

[Tamas]

As corona fades the EU really needs to get cracking with post brexit reforms for kicking out those nations that drop below the standards.

You guy keep mentioning Brexit in relation to the EU as if anyone there (apart from Ireland) give a damn. They don't.

[grumbler]

As corona fades the EU really needs to get cracking with post brexit reforms for kicking out those nations that drop below the standards.

You guy keep mentioning Brexit in relation to the EU as if anyone there (apart from Ireland) give a damn. They don't.

You keep mentioning that you think Brexit has no impact on EU decision-making.  It does.  The absence of UK resistance to reform matters.

[DGuller]

How do you reform an organization with Liberum Veto rules?  Do all the big countries gang up together and threaten to leave EU and form EU2 if reforms are not accepted?

[Sheilbh]

You guy keep mentioning Brexit in relation to the EU as if anyone there (apart from Ireland) give a damn. They don't.

Maybe not to ordinary people - but they definitely do. But within the EU they definitely still give a damn and will forever - it's an alternative.

[Valmy]

I mean the UK didn't teleport to the Pacific Ocean. Brexit changes nothing in how important UK is to the other European countries and vice versa. It just changes the context.

[Zanza]

How do you reform an organization with Liberum Veto rules?  Do all the big countries gang up together and threaten to leave EU and form EU2 if reforms are not accepted?

Yes. Whenever something is desirable, but cannot be implemented due to internal resistance, it is done outside the EU structures as a international treaty between the willing countries. These countries then later vote to include this treaty into the EU mechanisms. Examples would be Schengen or the European Stability Mechanism.

[Tamas]

You guy keep mentioning Brexit in relation to the EU as if anyone there (apart from Ireland) give a damn. They don't.

Maybe not to ordinary people - but they definitely do. But within the EU they definitely still give a damn and will forever - it's an alternative.

Yes but since we are talking about democracies, ordinary people's priorities matter. Just look at the jittery decision making around the AZ vaccine's blood clots, or Merkel making nuclear power verboten because of a Japanese earthquake, or the Dutch insistence on not supporting "leeching" southern Europeans - what the public does and doesn't care about do influence what happens in EU countries and as a consequence in the EU.

[Zanza]

Hungary blocking a sternly worded message to China is not such a big problem. Hungary and Poland curtailing independent judiciary and media is a big problem. Hard to adress though, but there is growing willingness to do so.

[Sheilbh]

Yes but since we are talking about democracies, ordinary people's priorities matter. Just look at the jittery decision making around the AZ vaccine's blood clots, or Merkel making nuclear power verboten because of a Japanese earthquake, or the Dutch insistence on not supporting "leeching" southern Europeans - what the public does and doesn't care about do influence what happens in EU countries and as a consequence in the EU.

Sure but ordinary people do not care about foreign policy ever anywhere. But at the elite level of policy makers and civil servants and think tankers and journalists it is an important part of the state - and something they care about, rightly. Same with dry/abstract/overly-theoretical concepts like the rule of law - that's never going to win votes but it matters.

People do matter and influence what the EU does and cares about especially because (like China, or regulators) the EU in a large part depends on output/results legitimacy. But I am confident that they are smart enough to not only care about what matters to ordinary people - same with the UK or any other democracy. So people might not care about Brexit, but I think at that elite level it matters because it does.

[Zanza]

One failure of the EU that Brexit shows glaringly is that the EU has no good strategy for its near neighbourhood. The relations with Britain are frosty, Switzerland poor, Turkey terrible, Ukraine and Northern Africa complicated, Russia hostile but interdependent, Western Balkans no clear accession perspective...

There is hardly a neighbour that the EU has good relations with. Brexit made that more visible with a new great power neighbour.

[Sheilbh]

One failure of the EU that Brexit shows glaringly is that the EU has no good strategy for its near neighbourhood. The relations with Britain are frosty, Switzerland poor, Turkey terrible, Ukraine and Northern Africa complicated, Russia hostile but interdependent, Western Balkans no clear accession perspective...

There is hardly a neighbour that the EU has good relations with. Brexit made that more visible with a new great power neighbour.

Agreed. I'd slightly phrase it differently that the EU is basically a continental system (at an extreme I wonder if it's an early stage of a civilisation state like China or India?) and that shapes the way it engages with its near-neighbours. The engagement is structured in relation to EU systems - so Schengen, Customs Union, EEA or accession.

That may not always reflect reality but can be an important part of neighbours' politics - so Georgia and Ukraine are probably never going to join the EU but aligning with and trying to accede eventually are things most political parties in those countries want. In the Western Balkans I think accession is very unlikely but they're all formally on the accession path.

I think the EU struggles to use that leverage when it has it - so for example in Georgia the EU recently sent a team to help resolve the political crisis there between two pro-European parties. It should have been an easy result for the EU, but they failed to broker a deal and the State Department have sent a team instead who are making more progress. But I also think it struggles to deal with countries on the outside of those structures (Russia, Belarus) or moving away from them (Turkey) and, as you say, I don't think has a clear view on the wider near neighbourhood. In a way that reflects member state divergences - I've mentioned it before but Italy and France backed different sides in Libya recently so a common EU position is difficult even though Libya is a near neighbour that has a big impact on migration to the EU/Frontex missions. Even if there is a clear idea there's not always an easy way to act on it because it isn't going to fall within normal EU structures.

I think part of it is to nick Macron's line again is perhaps that the EU is too rational and too rules based in its approach it engages through specific channels, in the framework of its structures and procedures etc - which doesn't always work when your near neighbourhood is the Middle East, Ukraine, Caucus and North Africa. I hope the UK ends up providing a test ground for something else - especially because the UK is a richer and more "successful" seeming neighbour than Turkey or Russia.

But there was a recent example of this just yesterday which caused a big stir in Ukraine and Brussels. VdL's chief of staff replied in his own signature declining Zelenskiy's invitation to attend events marking Ukraine's 30th independence day on 23/24 August. Apparently VdL has other commitments (which raised eyebrows in Brussels - because it's not known as a hive of activity in August), but also getting the chief of staff to send a response to a President just makes it look like far more a snub than I think was intended.

I get that they want this to be the geopolitical commission and I hope they are, but I'm not convinced yet.

Edit: The other recent examples that seem to undermine the geopolitical ambitions were Borrell's visit to Moscow and the ridiculous "sofagate" incident in Ankara and subsequent briefing war between the Council and the Commission.

[garbon]

Hungary blocking a sternly worded message to China is not such a big problem.

I don't know, I mean if the EU can't even write a sternly worded letter...

[Zanza]

Hungary blocking a sternly worded message to China is not such a big problem.

I don't know, I mean if the EU can't even write a sternly worded letter...

I think the foreign policy weakness is just a symptom of the domestic problems. We need to solve those first, the rest will follow.