The EU thread

[Crazy_Ivan80]

And Romania is looking wobbly too, since they may end up with their own pro-russia president soon. You'd think they've learned their lessons in eastern europe but it seems not

[Jacob]

I basically agree with Sheilbh, both on where Russia is and where Europe is at.

IMO Europe is in a very precarious situation both politically and in terms of ability to effectively marshal and deploy force against the Russians.

It MAY be that the differences in technology level and economic fundamentals are enough to ensure European victory, but  I think taking that as a given is extremely foolish (especially given the reports from various military experts).

[crazy canuck]

I think we have the record for logical leaps. Sheilbh went through a lengthy explanation for why Russia probably won't lose the war to Ukraine next year and then concluded by that observation that Europe alone couldn't win a war against Russia.

There needs to be a bit of support for that conclusion.

And Jacob, what military experts are you talking about?  The guy who's YouTube video you posted who said he didn't think France alone could withstand a war with Russia?

[Josquius]

Ukraine is basically holding Russia. Making them bleed tens of thousands for a few km of land.
The default situation is a slightly Russia leaning stalemate - but even that leaning is by somewhat choice of Russias enemies since it hurts Russia more that way.
Add the rest of Europe to Ukraines side and I am pretty confident Europe would win.

That's no reason to rest easy and do nothing of course. Merely winning isn't something that should be accepted. Europe wants to win with a minimum of casualties and damage. There's a lot of work to be done there, especially around drones.

But purely in terms of "who would win" I'm confident in saying Europe.

Russias collapse... As said the article I posted is from a guy who usually leans towards the positive. I didn't see Russia going under in a few months. They will have some trick to play.
But the problems he talks about are very real.
Russia is a collapsing country, even if it has reached a place where the rules of normal countries don't apply to it anymore.
As has been said collapses don't happen then they suddenly happen all at once. It could be any time.

Which does make the current situation with Russia vs Europe more dangerous yes. If peace were to be declared with Ukraine, Russia knows it has a small window to expand more , 5 years or so, during which it's forces are still bloodied and ready to go again.
Also a factor there is that Putin is not a young man. Time isn't on his side.

As I say though this who will win Europe or Russia stuff I do think is missing the point.
Russias next moves will look far more 2014 than 2022.
Key for Europe is less in "can they beat Russia" - as of course they would. But rather "would they beat Russia".
Apparently Russia is really starting to kick into gear nonsense propeganda that Lithuania isn't a real country (with Ukraine you can see their point as wrong as it is, they've long been under the rule of others, but Lithuania? Wut.) and they are keeping at their support for populist morons in western politics.