The EU thread

[Zanza]

The PiS candidate won the Polish presidential election 51 to 49. Bad for Poland as he will block the government and bad for the EU as he will be able to obstruct.

In a country that is generally pro-EU, a massive beneficiary of the EU and that feels threatened by Putin, I don't get why there can be a majority for a nationalist. I guess being against migrants, gays and 'establishment elites' is more important for voters everywhere. 

[Josquius]

It's weird this fuckwit to decent person quotient the world over consistently hovers so close to 50 50.
I get it when you've right and left fighting for the centre but when you've far right lunatics and basic centrists?

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Shit, I thought I read yesterday that it was 51-49 against Poland taking another PiS.

[Syt]

Some background about him:

https://apnews.com/article/poland-president-conservative-karol-nawrocki-trump-bb028ee68b5677d9195707fb4a6947c1

3 things to know about Poland's new conservative president

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — The final result of Poland's presidential election only became clear after a long, nail-gripping night of counting as both candidates were locked in a near dead heat in the first exit polls after voting ended.

Poles awakened Monday to a clear albeit close result that returns a nationalist politician to the presidency who has pledged to hinder the centrist, pro-EU government for the remainder of its term.

Here's what to know about Karol Nawrocki, Poland's newly elected conservative president:

Trump backed him

Nawrocki is a 42-year-old historian who had no political experience prior to the campaign and who was not even a party member until he was tapped by the conservative Law and Justice party that governed Poland from 2015 to 2023.

Nawrocki heads the Institute of National Remembrance, which embraces nationalist historical narratives. He led efforts to topple monuments to the Soviet Red Army in Poland. Russia responded by putting him on a wanted list, according to Polish media reports.

Nawrocki's supporters describe him as the embodiment of traditional, patriotic values. Many of them oppose abortion and LGBTQ+ visibility and say Nawrocki reflects the traditional values they grew up with.

He was also the preferred favorite of U.S. President Donald Trump, with the American conservative group CPAC holding its first meeting in Poland last week during the campaign to give him a boost. Kristi Noem, the U.S. Homeland Security Secretary and a prominent Trump ally, strongly praised him and urged Poles to vote for him.

His campaign echoed themes popular on the American right. A common refrain from his supporters is that Nawrocki will restore "normality," as they believe Trump has done. U.S. flags appeared at his rallies.

Nawrocki performed better in the first round than expected, an indication he was underestimated in the polling.

Nawrocki was linked to scandals

Nawrocki's quick political rise has not been without controversy, with reports linking him to underworld figures whom he met while boxing or working as a hotel security guard in the past.

Nawrocki has also been linked to a scandal involving the acquisition of a Gdansk apartment from an elderly pensioner named Jerzy. Allegations suggest Nawrocki promised to care for Jerzy in return but failed to fulfill the commitment, leading the man to end up in a publicly funded retirement home.

His shifting explanations raised questions about his transparency and credibility. After the scandal erupted he donated the apartment to a charity.

It recently emerged that Nawrocki took part in a 2009 Gdansk brawl involving about 140 rival soccer fans, some later convicted of crimes. Nawrocki described the fight as a form of "noble" combat.

Polish media have also reported on his connections to gangsters and the world of prostitution.

His critics say all of these things make him unfit to represent Poland as the head of state but many right-wing voters don't believe the allegations and accuse the media of using its power to hurt him, creating what appears to be a rallying effect around him.

It's unclear what effect, if any, these scandals had on the outcome of Sunday's result.

[Sheilbh]

Paragraph in the Economist that I think explains why this keeps happening and will keep happening in the Economist:

That has has shocked observers in Brussels, says Tomasz Bielecki, a correspondent there for Polityka, a Polish weekly. They have also been concerned by the evolution of Mr Tusk, who until 2019 served as president of the European Council. Earlier this year he refused to comply with the EU's migration pact and attacked the EU Green Deal, its strategy to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. "There is a hope that when the campaign is over, Tusk will return to being more of a Brussels man again," says Mr Bielecki. But with his side having barely weathered, and perhaps lost, a presidential election, Mr Tusk will find he has far less freedom of action than he had hoped.

As Mike Bird put it - just a few more incredibly narrow electoral victories and we'll get mid-2000s politics back with added Net Zero. It's over, it's dead - the challenge for the various parties of centrist/establishment traditions is to imagine what the future will look like in response to the changes in the world. And if they fail others will replace them (though, obviously in Poland, PiS are absolutely an "establishment" party but this is how they fit into the international discourse about this).

I'd add that I think the all too standard discourse of basically saying one thing in a campaign but then expecting to govern different is not healthy for a democratic society.

[Valmy]

So I was watching a recent video from my favorite Gen Z Russian exile NFKRZ about his recent visit to the European Parliament in Strasbourg when he started talking about the commemoration of VE Day:

When he noted that during the ceremony the members of AfD did not stand up while everybody else did.

Like holy shit. I thought they at least tried to not directly indicate they were Nazi sympathizers.