Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[mongers]

So right now leave has a narrow lead based on a bunch of tiny places ive mostly never heard of...wont they get swamped when the london vote comes in?

Newcastle is a major city of almost 300,000 and only barely went for Remain at 51%. It probably isn't demographically representative of other large British cities, but a little silly to lump it in with "tiny places you've never heard of."

Yeah I'm close to Southampton and Bournemouth/Poole and both of these conurbations are the size of a larger London borough.

[Agelastus]

Sterling's dropped to 1.42 on the google tracker (from the 1.46 it had rallied to earlier.)

"Interesting" night times.

FTP.

It's dropped by the alleged level of the "risk factor" that Sterling was trading under before yesterday's jump to $1.50. Before that the "risk factor" being priced in was, supposedly, about 5% over the level it should have been at - which is roughly how far its dropped at this point.

[Drakken]

North Warwickshire vote Leave almost by a 2-to-1 margin.

[Agelastus]

Mongers, why do you keep deleting posts - that's at least two tonight?

[mongers]

Mongers, why do you keep deleting posts - that's at least two tonight?

Oh I thought they were especially trivial comments and were cluttering up the thread.

I may have to delete this reply too shortly.   

[Richard Hakluyt]

That Henretty fellow that Shielbh linked to earlier reckons that Remain only have a 3% chance of winning now.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Lambeth 78% remain and Oxford 70% remain.

[mongers]

Lambeth 78% remain and Oxford 70% remain.

Exeter also Remain, but closer at 55-45%

[Sheilbh]

So right now leave has a narrow lead based on a bunch of tiny places ive mostly never heard of...wont they get swamped when the london vote comes in?

Newcastle is a major city of almost 300,000 and only barely went for Remain at 51%. It probably isn't demographically representative of other large British cities, but a little silly to lump it in with "tiny places you've never heard of."

The issue with Newcastle is that Remain vote is a lot narrower than would've been expected.

Chris Hanretty's latest estimation - we're out:

This is a big update, and I'm conscious that I may have made a terrible mistake somewhere in estimating differential turnout, but here goes:
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.03
(33 of 382 areas reporting.)
Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.5 percent.
(90% prediction interval: 45.5 to 49.6 percent)

[MadBurgerMaker]

That Henretty fellow that Shielbh linked to earlier reckons that Remain only have a 3% chance of winning now.

Wow. 

So how would this work if it does end up going that way?  What is the time frame like?

[Drakken]

That Henretty fellow that Shielbh linked to earlier reckons that Remain only have a 3% chance of winning now.

At 50,3% right now, with London still coming? 

[Agelastus]

That Henretty fellow that Shielbh linked to earlier reckons that Remain only have a 3% chance of winning now.

I think he's thrown in the towel too soon; remain results are starting to come through such as Exeter 44.7 leave - 55.3 remain.

[Sheilbh]

That Henretty fellow that Shielbh linked to earlier reckons that Remain only have a 3% chance of winning now.

Gazumped.

[Drakken]

Remain takes the lead with 50,7%.

[Richard Hakluyt]

That Henretty fellow that Shielbh linked to earlier reckons that Remain only have a 3% chance of winning now.

I think he's thrown in the towel too soon; remain results are starting to come through such as Exeter 44.7 leave - 55.3 remain.

Agreed, I thought the Lambeth vote was pretty spectacular.