Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[alfred russel]

So right now leave has a narrow lead based on a bunch of tiny places ive mostly never heard of...wont they get swamped when the london vote comes in?

[mongers]

So right now leave has a narrow lead based on a bunch of tiny places ive mostly never heard of...wont they get swamped when the london vote comes in?

No.

And ironically London getting swamped earlier today may have cost Remain a few more votes.

[Sheilbh]

So right now leave has a narrow lead based on a bunch of tiny places ive mostly never heard of...wont they get swamped when the london vote comes in?

85% of the country doesn't live in London and we're aiming for 50%+1. So on current trends, London needs to turn out a little more strongly and a little more pro-Remain than you'd guess before hand.

So far Leave is turning out a little bit better than would be expected...

Edit: At the minute Remain is 46%, Leave is 54% - so roughly 900,000 to 1,000,000.

[Richard Hakluyt]

London only has 9m out of 65m people, not that you would think that from the way news is covered here; which is of course part of the problem.

[Agelastus]

Wellingborough votes leave with a 10% higher turnout than at the last General Election.

Eastern Wales voting leave, but those areas are also the ones that vote Tory IIRC.

Rumours from earlier that the weather has dropped London's turnout 2 or 3% below the expected level based on the rest of the country.

[Sheilbh]

Eastern Wales voting leave, but those areas are also the ones that vote Tory IIRC.

So's South Wales, which ain't Tory

Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil both strong Leave results.

Rumours from earlier that the weather has dropped London's turnout 2 or 3% below the expected level based on the rest of the country.

I've seen early reports/gossip of very, very strong Remain votes in London boroughs and roughly national average turnout.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Still waiting for a big city result. If those sort of places are also voting more leave than expected then it is all done and dusted.

[Sheilbh]

Still waiting for a big city result. If those sort of places are also voting more leave than expected then it is all done and dusted.

Or if Leave turnout is higher which looks like what's happening. So they may strongly vote Remain, but not have strongly voted enough.

By the by, it's not a good look that Labour's already blaming the SNP...

[Agelastus]

Eastern Wales voting leave, but those areas are also the ones that vote Tory IIRC.

So's South Wales, which ain't Tory

Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil both strong Leave results.

That Swansea reporting area includes the Gower peninsula that went Tory at the General Election, and while Blaenau Gwent stayed Labour there were Tory inroads in that area as well IIRC.

[mongers]

Suggestions are Southampton is 60-40 and Portsmouth similarly going Leave, but no results in yet from the South.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The protestant areas of NI are far more leave than I expected. I can't imagine what they are thinking, they face far more serious consequences than the rest of us 

[Sheilbh]

Eastern Wales voting leave, but those areas are also the ones that vote Tory IIRC.

So's South Wales, which ain't Tory

Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil both strong Leave results.

That Swansea reporting area includes the Gower peninsula that went Tory at the General Election, and while Blaenau Gwent stayed Labour there were Tory inroads in that area as well IIRC.

BBC correspondent in Wales said it looks like the tide is only going one way and reporting that Swansea looks like leave which is a surprise - as a city

[OttoVonBismarck]

So right now leave has a narrow lead based on a bunch of tiny places ive mostly never heard of...wont they get swamped when the london vote comes in?

Newcastle is a major city of almost 300,000 and only barely went for Remain at 51%. It probably isn't demographically representative of other large British cities, but a little silly to lump it in with "tiny places you've never heard of."

[mongers]

So will the mainly metropolitan based media get the reasons why the invisible people voted so strongly to Leave?

[Agelastus]

Sterling's dropped to 1.42 on the google tracker (from the 1.46 it had rallied to earlier.)

"Interesting" night.