[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Josephus]

I remember before the 2016 election when every one thought Hilary would win, Moore was on the Bill Maher show and he was saying something like, Guys, this isn't done; Trump's gonna win. And everyone thought he was just a pessimist. He does have his pulse on the midwest like no one else.

I was reading up on anthems at American events. (they also do anthems before concerts and such); it's a show of patriotism that started up around WW1. We Canadians seem to copy American things. You're right, I don't know why they play an anthem before any sporting event. They don't do it anywhere else, except before international games (World Cup, for instance). Even in Champions Leauge games between teams from two countries, they don't play the anthems.

[Sheilbh]

Even in Champions Leauge games between teams from two countries, they don't play the anthems.

They play the Champions League Anthem!

Or the far superior Europa League Anthem.

Although with those UEFA anthems - halfway between genuine aspiration and corporate greed - can't help but think of Saudi recently commissioning Hans Zimmer to compose a new anthem.

[viper37]

Mark Carney has a different idea of budget discipline
(gifted article)

More details emerge on what Mark Carney really means by "eliminating the deficit in 3 years".

I like hearing about this idea, because it's something we've been hearing about since the mid 90s, when the government became very concerned about the weight of the debt and their inability to control their deficits.

In essence, the budget will be split in two: operating expenses and capital expenditures.

It would be much more similar to municipal accounting, for those who know about it.

It might avoid the nasty tendency of governments to cut on needed long term investments to balance their budgets by always reporting them for later (a day that never comes until there is a tragedy, like a bride collapsing, or the election of a traitorous moron in the world most powerful nation).

On the other hand, it means the debt will likely never go down, and we entered a cycle of perpetual structural deficits for infrastructures, and future leaders may be tempted to borrow even more to build whatever will gain them the more votes, not strictly what is best for the long term of the nation.

If the provinces follow suit with these rules, and the Federal gives them money for their project, it might have cascading perverse effects.

[Jacob]

The Conservatives are still polling at a massive lead, and Poilievre is likely to be our next PM.

I'm not much of a fan of the Conservatives nor Poilievre, but as long has he respects our democratic institutions it'll be fine.

How worried should we be about that potential? I'd like to think "not at all", but looking at the world right now... well, you know....

[Valmy]

The election is in October right? Can we really call it this early?

[HVC]

The Trudeau taint is strong. But if trump keeps trumping, who knows.

As for Mr. P I'm not necessarily worried that he'll do it, more so that he's the stone that starts the avalanche. Conservatives notice that his Trump tendencies and tactics don't get a backlash so they keep pushing in that direction.

[HVC]

And beyond his trumpiness I just think crypto PM would be a bad move for Canada even if the states hadn't gone nuts.

[Barrister]

The Conservatives are still polling at a massive lead, and Poilievre is likely to be our next PM.

I'm not much of a fan of the Conservatives nor Poilievre, but as long has he respects our democratic institutions it'll be fine.

How worried should we be about that potential? I'd like to think "not at all", but looking at the world right now... well, you know....

So said it before, I'll say it again.

Polls at this point mean something.  Poilievre is probably the favourite at this point.  But it's a very uncertain times, and neither Poilievre or Carney are well known to the public.

You mentioned "democratic institutions".  I see no reason to think the Conservatives will be any better or worse than the current Liberals (or the Harper government) on this front.  You don't have Poilievre talking about the "enemy within", or complaining about rigged elections, or anything of the sort.

If I did have concerns on this front it would absolutely, 100% trump my other policy preferences for the Conservatives (pun not intended).

Now CC has said that Poilievre's use of language can be similar to Trump.  He's true - he had a major policy speech on the theme of Canada First.  But Poilievre's "Canada First" doesn't seem to have much, if anything, to do with Trump's America First beyond the word "First".

[Grey Fox]

The election is in October right? Can we really call it this early?

It can be 35 days from now, every day. Latest in October. Expect it to be 35 days after March 10.

[Valmy]

The election is in October right? Can we really call it this early?

It can be 35 days from now, every day. Latest in October. Expect it to be 35 days after March 10.

Ah ok.

[Barrister]

The election is in October right? Can we really call it this early?

It can be 35 days from now, every day. Latest in October. Expect it to be 35 days after March 10.

Ah ok.

Parliament of course is prorogued until March 24.  Liberal Party leadership vote is March 9 (which is where GF gets March 10).

I doubt very much March 10.  Carney, or whomever the new leader is, will want to put together a cabinet, and present some kind of budget / financial update before Parliament and dare the opposition to vote it down.  If/when they do that will be the Liberals campaign platform.  So that may take some time - and the new leader could prorogue beyond Mar 24 if they want.

As well - the campaign has to be 35 days minimum - it can be longer.  In 2015  Harper, who was running behind, chose a much longer election period of 11 weeks.

[Jacob]

The election is in October right? Can we really call it this early?

So the Liberals were completely in the dumps, looking like they'd suffer a historic wipeout. Then Trudeau resigned, Trump happened, and the Liberals looked strong while the Conservatives looked weak. This has led to a Liberal surge and a narrowing of the gap between the two parties.

With all that, here's how the two parties are currently polling (CBC poll aggregator).

• Conservatives: 42.2%
• Liberals: 26.5%
• NDP: 15.9%
• BQ: 7.7%
• Greens: 4.2%
• Peoples Party: 2.7%

338Canada has the following likelihoods:

• Conservative Majority: 74%
• Conservative Minority: 24%
• Liberal Minority: 1%

Things can change for sure and October is a long way away, but I'd put my money on the Conservatives winning.

Also, I expect the NDP to trigger an election sooner than October.

[Jacob]

So said it before, I'll say it again.

Polls at this point mean something.  Poilievre is probably the favourite at this point.  But it's a very uncertain times, and neither Poilievre or Carney are well known to the public.

Yeah, we won't know until the final poll.

You mentioned "democratic institutions".  I see no reason to think the Conservatives will be any better or worse than the current Liberals (or the Harper government) on this front.  You don't have Poilievre talking about the "enemy within", or complaining about rigged elections, or anything of the sort.

Yeah that's fair. And as long as that holds, I'll be content in that regard.

The BC Conservatives did lean into "rigged polls" a bit after losing and that was very disconcerting. But they're not the federal conservatives.

If I did have concerns on this front it would absolutely, 100% trump my other policy preferences for the Conservatives (pun not intended).

Good to know. I'll probably bring this up with you a number of times as you're one of my bell weathers on this topic.

Now CC has said that Poilievre's use of language can be similar to Trump.  He's true - he had a major policy speech on the theme of Canada First.  But Poilievre's "Canada First" doesn't seem to have much, if anything, to do with Trump's America First beyond the word "First".

Yeah. I mean, if Poilievre can channel the power of Trumpian rhetoric and transform it into stolid Canadian government that respects our institutions, then I'll consider that a win.

I mean, I remain leery and worried - and I think there's HVC has a good point - but I'm looking for reasons to be optimistic right now.

[crazy canuck]

The election is in October right? Can we really call it this early?

So the Liberals were completely in the dumps, looking like they'd suffer a historic wipeout. Then Trudeau resigned, Trump happened, and the Liberals looked strong while the Conservatives looked weak. This has led to a Liberal surge and a narrowing of the gap between the two parties.

With all that, here's how the two parties are currently polling (CBC poll aggregator).

• Conservatives: 42.2%
• Liberals: 26.5%
• NDP: 15.9%
• BQ: 7.7%
• Greens: 4.2%
• Peoples Party: 2.7%

338Canada has the following likelihoods:

• Conservative Majority: 74%
• Conservative Minority: 24%
• Liberal Minority: 1%

Things can change for sure and October is a long way away, but I'd put my money on the Conservatives winning.

Also, I expect the NDP to trigger an election sooner than October.

Except the polling also shows that if Carney is the leader, its a dead heat between the Conservatives and Liberals, with Carney polling personally ahead of Poilievre.

[Jacob]

Except the polling also shows that if Carney is the leader, its a dead heat between the Conservatives and Liberals, with Carney polling personally ahead of Poilievre.

Good to know