[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

I rely on Josephus and others to tell me about what is happening in Ontario.

[Barrister]

Freeland, Poilievre, heck even Singh would be far more radical changes.

Freeland was Trudeau's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister for years. You are going to have to explain how you came to the conclusion she would be more of a change from Trudeau than someone who was not in the Trudeau government.

Because Freeland broke quite publicly from Trudeau, while on the other hand Trudeau's closest advisors are advising Carney?

[Jacob]

Because Freeland broke quite publicly from Trudeau, while on the other hand Trudeau's closest advisors are advising Carney?

That's only because Carney is likely to win. If Freeland was the top contender, the line would be "she was part of the Trudeau government for a decade! And they choose her over Carney who's at least something of an outsider!"

But the strategy is still "tie the next liberal leader to Trudeau" and count on Trudeau fatigue to win the day.

[crazy canuck]

Freeland, Poilievre, heck even Singh would be far more radical changes.

Freeland was Trudeau's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister for years. You are going to have to explain how you came to the conclusion she would be more of a change from Trudeau than someone who was not in the Trudeau government.

Because Freeland broke quite publicly from Trudeau, while on the other hand Trudeau's closest advisors are advising Carney?

On the eve of her getting fired from her role as Finance minister she decided it would be better to jump ship, take Trudeau down and run as leader. Is that the best you got?

[Barrister]

That's only because Carney is likely to win. If Freeland was the top contender, the line would be "she was part of the Trudeau government for a decade! And they choose her over Carney who's at least something of an outsider!"

That's rather a chicken-and-egg situation.  Carney is likely to win because Trudeau's top advisors are assisting him.  Were they to be supporting Freeland, she'd be the top contender.

But the strategy is still "tie the next liberal leader to Trudeau" and count on Trudeau fatigue to win the day.

Well of course it is.  That's like politics 101.If there was no Trudeau fatigue Trudeau himself wouldn't have resigned.  I mean if frigging Ruby Dhalla wins, the Conservatives will try and pin Trudeau's legacy to her, and she wasn't even a part of Trudeau's government.

[Josephus]

We shall see if that carries through to an actual election.

I have been consistent over the years here in saying the only poll that matters is the one 5 minutes before the election.

Meh.

On the one hand it's true - the only poll that counts is the election itself.

But beyond that - polling is predictive.  We can sometimes see big swings in polling results - but we usually don't.  Usually the winner on election day is the party that was leading in the polls, probably for months.

"The only poll that counts is the one on election day" is almost always uttered by a party and leader that is behind in the polls.

Not long ago everyone, and I mean everyone, was saying that PP would win a landslide majority. Now that may not be the case. The polls showing he had a 20 point plus lead were meaningless. Anything can, and usually does, happen. Kamala even had positive polls at one point. Meaningless. The pendulum swings back and forth and small things move it. Truthfully, the majority of people forget things quickly and move on to the next thing. Trudeau will be forgotten by election time. Now that's not to say PP won't win a huge majority. AGain, anything can and will happen. And don't say, those polls were PP v. Trudeau. Trudeau is not running now. Carney may not win the Liberal leadership. Who knows? So current polls are, again, meaningless.
Maybe the NDP will yet win.

And HVC, I have moved a bit centrist in the last couple elections. Not a big Singh fan, and liked Trudeau until this term. So I'm not yet sure which party I'll support. I'm more in the Freeland camp than Carney.

[viper37]

That's rather a chicken-and-egg situation.  Carney is likely to win because Trudeau's top advisors are assisting him.  Were they to be supporting Freeland, she'd be the top contender.

Trudeau's inner circle (and friends) view Freeland's gesture as betrayal of sort.  She dared oppose the Prime Minister!  How could she!

So they side with Carney because he is the most likely candidate to win over her.  If that was the Indian-Punjabi ultra-conservative slave-owning-won't-bother-to-learn-French lady, they would side with her.

[Barrister]

Not long ago everyone, and I mean everyone, was saying that PP would win a landslide majority. Now that may not be the case. The polls showing he had a 20 point plus lead were meaningless. Anything can, and usually does, happen. Kamala even had positive polls at one point. Meaningless. The pendulum swings back and forth and small things move it. Truthfully, the majority of people forget things quickly and move on to the next thing. Trudeau will be forgotten by election time. Now that's not to say PP won't win a huge majority. AGain, anything can and will happen. And don't say, those polls were PP v. Trudeau. Trudeau is not running now. Carney may not win the Liberal leadership. Who knows? So current polls are, again, meaningless.
Maybe the NDP will yet win.

Just because something can happen, doesn't mean it will happen, or is likely to happen.

Poilievre didn't have a single, or a few 20 point lead polls - he had months of them.

Harris is kind of a key example here.  Yes she received a big bounce in the polls after Biden dropped out, but it didn't last.  While Harris did (I think) better in the final election than Biden would have, the race came back pretty close to where it had been polling before Biden dropped out.

A famous Canadian example is Kim Campbell.  PCs were polling terribly, Mulroney dropped out, Campbell had a brief run where she was doing quite well in the polls, only for the PC numbers to ultimately drop back to where they had been.

The real wild card here I admit is the Trump tariff threats.  This is pretty hard to come up with historical examples.

[viper37]

I wonder if it was a lost in translation mistake when Carney said he would cut individual and provincial transfers?

[Oexmelin]

I was struck by how so much of the coverage of the US - Canada relations in the media now resemble the coverage of the USSR of old, with people trying to discern who is closest to the Politburo, who yields what kind of power...

[crazy canuck]

I wonder if it was a lost in translation mistake when Carney said he would cut individual and provincial transfers?

link?

I just saw reporting on him saying he would call an early election, cut the carbon tax for individuals, and implement housing development incentives.

I was struck by how so much of the coverage of the US - Canada relations in the media now resemble the coverage of the USSR of old, with people trying to discern who is closest to the Politburo, who yields what kind of power...

Yeah, It seems a waste of time for our ministers to be talking to people who may or may not have any pull with the mob boss.

[Barrister]

I was struck by how so much of the coverage of the US - Canada relations in the media now resemble the coverage of the USSR of old, with people trying to discern who is closest to the Politburo, who yields what kind of power...

Yeah we just had the spectacle of our Prime Minister and every provincial Premiere travel to DC - to meet with "James Blair — Trump's deputy chief of staff for legislative affairs — and Sergio Gor — Trump's director of personnel."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/premiers-meeting-white-house-1.7457396

Also this fun note: Trump promises to "come up with a plan" for "reciprocal tariffs" on any country that tariffs the US at present.

So first of all this is very Trumpy - make a big show of a Executive Order - which only promises to "make a plan".

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-reciprocal-tariffs-canada-1.7458775

But also - what do they even mean?

1. So Canada does have some existing, old-fashioned tariffs on US goods.  Those were negotiated as part of the NAFTA replacement deal.  If he didn't like them then why did he sign the deal?

2. We imposed a bunch of tariffs in response to his steel and aluminum tariffs.  Does he mean to impose response tariffs on our response tariffs?  Where exactly does he think that cycle will stop?

3. The article above says they might consider our national sales tax a "trade barrier".  Trump himself mentioned it in his phone call with Trudeau.  Excuse me - WTF?  I understand there can be barriers to trade that aren't tariffs, but a national sales tax that applies to everything without regard to national origin? 


And of course no discussions, no negotiations, just again the daily "flooding the zone with shit" to get everyone on edge and worried.

[Josephus]

It's Michael Moore, so take that for what it's worth but ...

Nobody, especially Trump, knows it yet.

His fate, his downfall, and his doom is, as we speak, being set in stone. And considering the roll he is on, few will believe what I am writing here. Just as well. Best not to believe or repeat what I'm telling you. Fortunately, Trump is so full of himself and too stupid to see what he is doing to his sweet victory. He will continue to do what he's doing — shock and awe, slash and burn, rape and pillage, a collective cattle-prod to us all — because he believes he is seriously wounding what he considers to be the "enemy from within." You and me. But what he is actually doing, and what he doesn't understand, is that with every drop of blood he takes from the collective liberal American soul, he is carving out a pound of his own flesh, large self-inflicted wounds, many times each day, every day, right now, at such a breathtaking pace. He is incapable of moderation — "I must not let up!" "I CANNOT LET UP!" — even though he is digging the graves of perhaps hundreds of thousands of Americans as Gravedigger-in-Chief (with his Mad Enabler, the new Secretary of "Health," who has guaranteed there will be no vaccines available for the massive and deadly bird flu that may be on its way — over 150 million chickens in the US have already been euthanized). He will, in his own fevered mind, not be interrupted. He will be cheered on by his sociopathic handlers and his sad and frightened MAGA Nation followers who know deep in their bones that they have so little time left before the Orange Man's reign comes to a screeching end. Trump does not even understand how he is creating his own ultimate doom.

I've debated whether or not I should be writing this, first because I want to see no harm come to a single individual anywhere on this planet. But I also know, as do all of you, the awful truth that in these early weeks, in the very short term, we hold little or no power in our hands to put a stop to him immediately. But that doesn't mean we should not be using all parts of the apparatus to do exactly that. Yes, I worry that he will find out too soon that he has cast the die and has sealed his own bitter fate. For he has committed the Original Sin of the megalomaniacal and the malignant Super Narcissists: He thinks he is King. He believes he has the powers of God. He has already said there will not be a need for another election. He means it. 



So perhaps it's best that the Trumpsters don't know yet that the jig is up. Actually, they're so high right now, they will never believe that Trump has lit the fuse to their demise — even if I showed them the physical evidence of Trump himself with the match in his hand.

It has only taken him three simple moves since Inauguration Day to get to this heady place. You have all been a witness to it. I know, it has not been easy to watch. Painful, in fact. Every day since January 20th has been filled with numerous sick and cruel actions as Trump and his henchmen have been furiously trying to dismantle our government, blow up our Democracy and crush our spirit.

They have already mostly succeeded on that last point, sensitive souls that we liberals are! We've never met a defeat we weren't sure, in advance, would be handed to our sorry, sniveling, woe-is-me defeatist ass. Only a group like us would let a lame Party, which calls itself "Democratic," time after innumerable time, snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. Future historians will never understand us.

Here are Trump's three mistakes he's made in creating his own demise:


1.  Overwhelm.
Trump knew that, in order to pull off his coup, he would have to act fast and without mercy in order to catch the country off guard with a massive assault of illegal proclamations, firings, crazed appointments, attempts to rewrite the Constitution and the use of armed goons to round up the "illegal" Brown and Black people of this country — and to try and arrest those who impeached and indicted him! This vengeance and retribution tear he is on is unlike anything the country has ever seen. His hand-picked Supreme Court has ruled he has the legal right to break any and every law he desires. And so when a psychopath is given unlimited power to commit harm — and soon, perhaps, death — he will act like a rabid animal and seek the blood and the destruction he believes is rightfully his. No one dares get in his way. Liberals, Independents, Democrats are all paralyzed, unable to fight back. Few believed this would actually happen. And nobody has put together a plan to prepare for the onslaught. Everyone in the opposition is in a daze, their/our heads spinning, confused, disoriented, gobsmacked... OVERWHELMED. Overwhelmed with a sickening sense of dread. Overwhelmed with no one to turn to. Nowhere to hide. Nowhere to run. Filled with fear, your heart ready to explode. You try to calm down, to breathe, but you are feeling physically choked, can't breathe, "why are the uniformed men pulling that family next door out of their home?!"

"Why did my child have to witness three classmates hauled out of school in chains?"

"I AM SO OVERWHELMED I CAN'T THINK STRAIGHT! WHAT DO WE DO? HELP! SOMEONE PLEASE HELP US! I CAN'T BREATHE!!!"


2. Overreach.
A President out of control has now upset the millions of people who didn't vote for him. He is happy about that. My guess is that he is just a little bit too happy. He has convinced himself that he won in a "landslide." He has called it "the most epic political victory our country has ever seen." Both of those claims are false. He won by a miniscule 1.5% over Kamala Harris, one of the smallest percentage presidential wins ever. Only 2.2 million votes separated the two candidates. Back in 2020, Biden beat Trump by over 7 million votes! In November, Trump couldn't even get 50% of the vote in his victory. We can call it an anemic win, but it gave him all three branches of government to rule with — and he is hell-bent on ruling with might and brute force.

Upgrade to paid

But I am convinced that it will not be long before this wannabe dictator overplays his hand. Trust me, there is a point where the citizenry will have seen enough. George W. Bush had a 70% approval rating after he invaded Iraq. 70% of the country supported his wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Things looked bleak. But within 2 years, and after a narrow re-election win, the voters turned on him — and in the 2006 midterms, the voters took the House and Senate away from him. I believe Trump's Overreach will face a massive backlash, even from some of his own voters. The day will come where he will have insulted enough law enforcement officers and first responders just one too many times. The day will come after his hundreds of insults hurled at the men and women in the armed forces, including those whom he calls "suckers and losers," — the dead on the battlefield — where the volunteer members of the military and their families will have had enough.

I can't predict what the topic will be or at what moment the majority of the country will turn on him, but I believe his Overreach will do him in. I know many of you don't believe that because so many millions in November said that Trump is exactly what they wanted, but I'm going to go with my belief that there is such a thing as a bridge too far for most people. We won't know until it happens. Will it be him throwing the nation back into record inflation thanks to his unnecessary trade war with its insane tariffs? Will it be his continuing disrespect of women, all women, and which of their rights he next plans to extinguish? Will it be when he debases for the last time our veterans, the FBI or the Catholic Church, or simply his giving the finger to the Rule of Law? I don't know. But I do know most of you hope I'm right.


3. Overthrown.
And when that day arrives, it will be then that Trump will realize he may have gone too far. A big clue to his awakening might be when he sees the Joint Chiefs of Staff entering the White House with armed MPs and officers of the court. "Oops," his miniaturized brain will say to itself. "Uhh, these guys look like they mean business. Somebody call Roy Cohn!"

The Supreme Court did issue a pretty iron-clad Get Out of Jail card for Trump last year, but they are only one-third of the government. Our military, which has already stood up to Trump in his first term, is that one part of the Executive Branch full of serious thinkers, women, Black Americans, Muslims and the occasional General with a PhD in Philosophy. The days of the Vietnam War and Colin Powell being ordered to lie to the U.N. about non-existent weapons of mass destruction in Iraq are over. The Generals these days have not been afraid to call Trump a fascist. And the United States Congress — the Senate and the House together — they write the laws, and they hold the purse. In other words, their one-third of the government holds a fuckload of power. And there are ways and means in both Houses of Congress where the minority party can throw up massive roadblocks to mitigate the damage that the majority party lusts for. So this is not "game over." In fact, the Republicans have not even begun to see what we plan to do. They will rue the day they took us for granted. Maybe it has worked in our favor to look like a bunch of weenies. Because right now the MAGA-heads have let their guard down. We are the TRUE fighters. It is the liberals and progressives that have won all the big fights throughout American history. We won the Civil War. We got women the vote. FDR (and the Soviet Union — 25 million dead) won WWII. Civil Rights. Gay Rights. Labor Rights. Again, the big battles have all been won by us. The losers? Slaveowners. Bigots. Homophobes. Nazis. Segregationists. Anti-Education Teacher-Haters. Union-busters. Child-labor Enthusiasts. Anyone who has tried to force us to say a prayer, to go to church, to salute a flag, to post the 10 Commandments, cut our hair, wear our skirt below the knee, get on our knees and bow to authority, "Every house in zee neighborhood must be painted white!" — this and so many other things have been met with historic and epic resistance. What is it that we say? Oh yeah, "THIS IS A FREE COUNTRY!" We learn that by the time we're 5! Autocracy has always felt like poison. And yes, even now the majority of our people will not be force fed a meal of conformity, cruelty, obedience and apathy. Those who were Overwhelmed at first, those who know an Overreach when they see one... NO King is going to be allowed to overplay his hand. We don't know how this will happen, but we should know how this will end. We've seen far lesser men — and far stronger men — brought down in humiliating defeat, crumbling under the weight of what we still call Democracy. We are lucky to be living in a moment where we get to be witnesses once again to the power of the people.

What if I, and a whole bunch of others are, right now, devising a plan for all of us to Take America Back Again.

I'm up for it. How about you?

[viper37]

I wonder if it was a lost in translation mistake when Carney said he would cut individual and provincial transfers?

link?

I just saw reporting on him saying he would call an early election, cut the carbon tax for individuals, and implement housing development incentives.

Didn't get the original televised interview on TVA.

I got the interpretation on a political show on French CBC, les Mordus de Politique.
Dimitri Souda (Conservative) reported on it, and Jean-François Lisée (PQ) argues that he made a mistake in his approximate French (he's good at reading, less so at discussing for now).
Michelle Courchesne (QLP) says she understood he will cut equalization payments to provinces but instead directly reinvest into productivity.



For the benefit of French speakers:
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rdi/mordus-de-politique/site/videos/10294800/carney-veut-reduire-depenses-gouvernement

[Barrister]

It's Michael Moore, so take that for what it's worth but ...




3. Overthrown.
And when that day arrives, it will be then that Trump will realize he may have gone too far. A big clue to his awakening might be when he sees the Joint Chiefs of Staff entering the White House with armed MPs and officers of the court. "Oops," his miniaturized brain will say to itself. "Uhh, these guys look like they mean business. Somebody call Roy Cohn!"

The Supreme Court did issue a pretty iron-clad Get Out of Jail card for Trump last year, but they are only one-third of the government. Our military, which has already stood up to Trump in his first term, is that one part of the Executive Branch full of serious thinkers, women, Black Americans, Muslims and the occasional General with a PhD in Philosophy. The days of the Vietnam War and Colin Powell being ordered to lie to the U.N. about non-existent weapons of mass destruction in Iraq are over. The Generals these days have not been afraid to call Trump a fascist. And the United States Congress — the Senate and the House together — they write the laws, and they hold the purse. In other words, their one-third of the government holds a fuckload of power. And there are ways and means in both Houses of Congress where the minority party can throw up massive roadblocks to mitigate the damage that the majority party lusts for. So this is not "game over." In fact, the Republicans have not even begun to see what we plan to do. They will rue the day they took us for granted. Maybe it has worked in our favor to look like a bunch of weenies. Because right now the MAGA-heads have let their guard down. We are the TRUE fighters. It is the liberals and progressives that have won all the big fights throughout American history. We won the Civil War. We got women the vote. FDR (and the Soviet Union — 25 million dead) won WWII. Civil Rights. Gay Rights. Labor Rights. Again, the big battles have all been won by us. The losers? Slaveowners. Bigots. Homophobes. Nazis. Segregationists. Anti-Education Teacher-Haters. Union-busters. Child-labor Enthusiasts. Anyone who has tried to force us to say a prayer, to go to church, to salute a flag, to post the 10 Commandments, cut our hair, wear our skirt below the knee, get on our knees and bow to authority, "Every house in zee neighborhood must be painted white!" — this and so many other things have been met with historic and epic resistance. What is it that we say? Oh yeah, "THIS IS A FREE COUNTRY!" We learn that by the time we're 5! Autocracy has always felt like poison. And yes, even now the majority of our people will not be force fed a meal of conformity, cruelty, obedience and apathy. Those who were Overwhelmed at first, those who know an Overreach when they see one... NO King is going to be allowed to overplay his hand. We don't know how this will happen, but we should know how this will end. We've seen far lesser men — and far stronger men — brought down in humiliating defeat, crumbling under the weight of what we still call Democracy. We are lucky to be living in a moment where we get to be witnesses once again to the power of the people.

What if I, and a whole bunch of others are, right now, devising a plan for all of us to Take America Back Again.

So he's counting on a military coup to stop Trump?

There are few people whose political instincts I would trust less than Michael Moore.

And I say that as someone who's never seen any of his movies, but enjoyed his tv show TV Nation back in the day.

He's just someone so rigidly and dogmatically socialist.  He would use this same kind of language about anyone just to the right of Chairman Mao.  This MAGA era has caused me to re-consider some voices on the left - but not Moore.