[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Barrister]

Why am I afraid of the Federal NDP?

Look, I'm from Manitoba, which has a lengthy experience with NDP governments.  I do not think they're doing a very good job, but no, the sky hasn't fallen either.  Same thing in Saskatchewan.

But the prairie NDP experience is one thing - those are "major" parties, with experience in government, who made practical election promises.

The Federal party is nothing like that.  They have no one with any significant governing experience.  Their slate of candidates, in particular in Quebec, is full of lampposts - people with no qualifications, but who existed merely as a name on the ballot.

And Bob Rae in Ontario is a decent example.  He never expected to win, and many of his MPPs had no real experience.

So what I'm afraid of is a NDP budget with massive new taxes which hurt economic growth, expensive new social programs when we're having trouble sustaining the programs we already have over the long term, immediate pullout from Afghanistan together with gutting the Canadian Forces, and weakening our criminal justice system.

Remember Jack Layton's background was as a Toronto city councillor, and before that as a professor.  He has no experience in running a government, or any large organization. 

[Barrister]

In any case, I'd be willing to bet my house the NDP WILL NOT win. Oh, there are some out there now playing that unlikely scenario as an armageddon scenario to vote for either the Liberals or the Conservatives instead.

I certainly wouldn't bet my house on it, but no, I don't think it'll happen.

[Drakken]

Indeed.  Once they've realized they can vote for leftists without supporting the nationalists, Bloc fortunes will take a big hit, and the myth of Quebec seperatism as a force in current politics will be dealt a serious blow.

40% of Quebeckers would still vote for separation, today. It's hardly dead, just dormant until the next time you assrape us out of a done deal.

[Jacob]

Why would you think that?

The provincial NDP parties have essentially purged themselves of socialists in order to become electable as governments.  Most of those folks end up migrating to the Federal NDP party.  Case in point Libby Davies.  Also consider why Rae and Dosanj went from being NDP premiers to become Liberal federal members.

In the case of Rae and Dosanj, I think that had as much to do with their chance of getting elected

As for why I figure they'd be fairly responsible, that seems to be the pattern with social democrat governments being elected from Brazil to Scandinavia and the UK and, as you say, in our own provinces.

The NDP would introduce fundamental change the tax system in Canada.  What do you think all their supporters mean by "a fair tax system".   One example is they want to levy taxes on Capital (which Adrian Dix now wants to do in BC).  You just have to look at how that destroyed any capital investment in BC during the Glen Clarke years to shudder at the thought of such a disasterous policy being implemented Canada wide.

Is the capital tax currently argued for in the NDP's program? Because if the result of Glen Clarke's policy was so obviously disastrous, I'd expect the federal NDP to not emulate it.

But fair enough, I asked what your worst case scenario was and I'm getting "disastrous tax policy that slows the economy down in a significant fashion."

Like I said, I don't expect they'd be that foolish, and even if they were I'm not sure the Libs would let them get away with the worst excesses.

On the other hand, it's certainly a legitimate reason not to vote for the NDP even if I'm not convinced myself. I guess it's a bit like my reasons for distrusting Harper on various social policy issues; in most cases it really doesn't make too much of a difference, but there are enough hints and occasional concessions to an ideological base to give me the willies.

That is just one example off the top of my head.  Nobody takes the NDP seriously on the federal level because they never have had a shot at any power.  Any sane electorate would keep it that way.

Well, it seems some people are taking the NDP seriously on the federal level, at least these last few days before the actual voting.

[Jacob]

I certainly wouldn't bet my house on it, but no, I don't think it'll happen.

I'm not betting my house on anything either, but yeah, I don't think we'll see Layton as PM from this election.

[Barrister]

Why would you think that?

The provincial NDP parties have essentially purged themselves of socialists in order to become electable as governments.  Most of those folks end up migrating to the Federal NDP party.  Case in point Libby Davies.  Also consider why Rae and Dosanj went from being NDP premiers to become Liberal federal members.

In the case of Rae and Dosanj, I think that had as much to do with their chance of getting elected

As for why I figure they'd be fairly responsible, that seems to be the pattern with social democrat governments being elected from Brazil to Scandinavia and the UK and, as you say, in our own provinces.

It's not a problem inherent to being "social democrat governments".  The problem is that unlike Brazil, Scandinavia, or even the UK, our federal Social Democrat party has no experience being in government, or in making the hard decisions necessary to be an effective government.

[Jacob]

It's not a problem inherent to being "social democrat governments".  The problem is that unlike Brazil, Scandinavia, or even the UK, our federal Social Democrat party has no experience being in government, or in making the hard decisions necessary to be an effective government.

Well, that was true for Harper's government when he started too, wasn't it?

[Barrister]

It's not a problem inherent to being "social democrat governments".  The problem is that unlike Brazil, Scandinavia, or even the UK, our federal Social Democrat party has no experience being in government, or in making the hard decisions necessary to be an effective government.

Well, that was true for Harper's government when he started too, wasn't it?

No. 

Quite a few advisors from both the Mulroney years, and from provincial governments, were appointed.  In addition we had former provincial ministers to draw upon such as Vic Toews, Stockwell Day and Jim  Flaherty.

I don't think there are any NDP MPs with any government experience.  I could be corrected however.

[crazy canuck]

In the case of Rae and Dosanj, I think that had as much to do with their chance of getting elected

They themselves would have had no difficulty getting elected as NDP candidates.  What I think you mean is that they would never have had a shot at being in government because the Federal NDP is unelectable - which rather supports my point.

As for why I figure they'd be fairly responsible, that seems to be the pattern with social democrat governments being elected from Brazil to Scandinavia and the UK and, as you say, in our own provinces.

Just as there is such as a pattern in some Canadian Provinces.  In some circumstances that ended in disaster (Ontario and BC)  but you are ignoring my point that it is because of that fact that the Provincial parties are where the less extreme more able NDP members are located. 

Is the capital tax currently argued for in the NDP's program? Because if the result of Glen Clarke's policy was so obviously disastrous, I'd expect the federal NDP to not emulate it.

Again why would you think that when the NDP provincial leader who was just recently elected in BC says he wants to do just that.  So much for assuming the NDP would be sane...  The problem with the NDP is that they have never had to put forward a serious economic platform because nobody thinks they would govern.  If they do govern there is no reason to believe they would not empliment the kind of tax systems there members have always advocated for.

But fair enough, I asked what your worst case scenario was and I'm getting "disastrous tax policy that slows the economy down in a significant fashion."

No, I was responding to your assertion they would be reasonable.  If you wanted a worse case scenario I would point you to a list of disasterous policies in Ontario and BC and the picture becomes very bleak.

Like I said, I don't expect they'd be that foolish, and even if they were I'm not sure the Libs would let them get away with the worst excesses.

Given past experience I am not willing to take the risk.

Well, it seems some people are taking the NDP seriously on the federal level, at least these last few days before the actual voting.

Which gives rise to the whole discussion of how insane that is.

[crazy canuck]

I don't think there are any NDP MPs with any government experience.  I could be corrected however.

Goes back to the point that NDP provincial politicians who have been in government go to the Federal Liberals or stay in Provincial politics.

[Josephus]

In any case, I'd be willing to bet my house the NDP WILL NOT win. Oh, there are some out there now playing that unlikely scenario as an armageddon scenario to vote for either the Liberals or the Conservatives instead.

I certainly wouldn't bet my house on it, but no, I don't think it'll happen.

Oh come on.....your house is probably worth a lot more than mine. 

[Barrister]

In any case, I'd be willing to bet my house the NDP WILL NOT win. Oh, there are some out there now playing that unlikely scenario as an armageddon scenario to vote for either the Liberals or the Conservatives instead.

I certainly wouldn't bet my house on it, but no, I don't think it'll happen.

Oh come on.....your house is probably worth a lot more than mine. 

I don't know about that - your house is in Toronto after all...

[Neil]

Cap and trade and general warfare against Albertan prosperity.

[crazy canuck]

The Globe has endorsed Harper.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/editorials/the-globes-election-endorsement-facing-up-to-our-challenges/article2001610/

Jacob, you might want to read what they have to say about Layton.

[Oexmelin]

I don't mind people having little to no experience in party politics. Career politicians often frighten me more, and one can't on the one hand complain that politics attract only second-rate individuals, and on the other hope that stellar candidates would have focused their early lives on becoming MPs. Political flair can be developped elsewhere. Broad minds, varied experiences, a healthy mix of backgrounds in a party seems much more important, and the force of conviction can sometimes work wonders at getting your ideas implemented. 

Which is not to say that some NDPs (or, in Quebec, some Conservatives) do not appear quite... ehm... thin, as far as ideas or capacity are concerned.