[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Neil]

Someone made a Layton joke, I thought I'd share:

If the orange wave doesn't turn out to give the NDP votes, would that be a case of...wait for it....Premature Jack Elation?

Yeah, that was the best post of the thread.

[crazy canuck]

This feels a bit contrived to me.  There is no burning issue to go to the polls over.  It seems to me the Liberals motivation is to see if Iggy will sink or swim and if he sinks to move on to another period of party "renewal".  I have no idea what Layton's motivation is.  The NDP will lose seats. The conservatives can't be all that unhappy because they have a shot at a majority or the status quo.  I dont know enough about politics within Quebec to know what the Bloc is thinking but they might be forced to vote against the budget because they didnt get all the funding they wanted.

I got one thing very wrong.  the NPD are happy tonight.  I got one thing right - the Conservatives are happy tonight.

Canadian politics just became more clear.  A choice between the NDP and Conservatives.

Will Iggy step down tonight?

Will the NDP and Liberals try to merge the way the right did to form this majority?

[Malthus]

No-one predicted the implosion of the Bloc. Is this signalling the end for sovereignty? 

[Neil]

Will Iggy step down tonight?

Absolutely.  He has no choice at all.  There will be no willingness by any of the Liberals to

Will the NDP and Liberals try to merge the way the right did to form this majority?

I doubt it.  The Liberals aren't going to just pack it in and fold up under Layton, at least not this quickly.  Rae and Trudeau are going to butcher each other for the leadership.

[Malthus]

This feels a bit contrived to me.  There is no burning issue to go to the polls over.  It seems to me the Liberals motivation is to see if Iggy will sink or swim and if he sinks to move on to another period of party "renewal".  I have no idea what Layton's motivation is.  The NDP will lose seats. The conservatives can't be all that unhappy because they have a shot at a majority or the status quo.  I dont know enough about politics within Quebec to know what the Bloc is thinking but they might be forced to vote against the budget because they didnt get all the funding they wanted.

I got one thing very wrong.  the NPD are happy tonight.  I got one thing right - the Conservatives are happy tonight.

Canadian politics just became more clear.  A choice between the NDP and Conservatives.

Will Iggy step down tonight?

Will the NDP and Liberals try to merge the way the right did to form this majority?

Iggy's toast. He's losing in his own riding - thanks in part to my vote, I'm happy to say.

[viper37]

Duceppe lost in his own riding.

I think it's the first time two leaders of major political party lose in their own riding at the same time.

2, maybe 3 Bloc MPs left in the province.  We're all socialist now, save for 6 ridings, including my own.  Fuck.  This is bad for Quebec.

[crazy canuck]

Iggy's toast. He's losing in his own riding - thanks in part to my vote, I'm happy to say.

I definitely need to buy you a beer sometime.

[viper37]

Damn... the NDP came to 100 voices of winning my riding... fuck, I never knew there were so many commies around me.  I'm scared.

[Zoupa]

The Toronto Star officially endorsed the NDP today. They did have a second, smaller editorial saying that while they endorse the NDP they suggest that voters in Toronto continue to vote Liberal, less the split in the vote gives the Conservatives the riding. Also a recent poll puts them at 33 per cent.

Well fuck.

Did the total Conservative number of votes actually go up since 2008? I sure hope so, else the system sorta sucks.

[Barrister]

The Toronto Star officially endorsed the NDP today. They did have a second, smaller editorial saying that while they endorse the NDP they suggest that voters in Toronto continue to vote Liberal, less the split in the vote gives the Conservatives the riding. Also a recent poll puts them at 33 per cent.

Well fuck.

Did the total Conservative number of votes actually go up since 2008? I sure hope so, else the system sorta sucks.

37.6% in 2008, 39.6% in 2011.

So there was an increase, but even as a partisan I have to admit that some vote splitting helped.

[Zoupa]

The Toronto Star officially endorsed the NDP today. They did have a second, smaller editorial saying that while they endorse the NDP they suggest that voters in Toronto continue to vote Liberal, less the split in the vote gives the Conservatives the riding. Also a recent poll puts them at 33 per cent.

Well fuck.

Did the total Conservative number of votes actually go up since 2008? I sure hope so, else the system sorta sucks.

37.6% in 2008, 39.6% in 2011.

So there was an increase, but even as a partisan I have to admit that some vote splitting helped.

I meant actual votes, but I think participation was up overall so I guess it makes sense (sorta).

I would prefer a 2 round election a week apart.

[Josephus]

No-one predicted the implosion of the Bloc. Is this signalling the end for sovereignty?

I'm still not sure how and why it happened

The Bloc were polliing as normal at the start of the election campaign, right? It was only after the debates that this whole "orange surge" started in Quebec. So what happened? I don't think Quebec voted so much for the NDP as they did for Layton. But what did Duceppe do or say that destroyed the Bloc

[Josephus]

Duceppe lost in his own riding.

I think it's the first time two leaders of major political party lose in their own riding at the same time.

2, maybe 3 Bloc MPs left in the province.  We're all socialist now, save for 6 ridings, including my own.  Fuck.  This is bad for Quebec.

Can we stop the "socialist" rhetoric yet? The NDP is not a socialist party. Look up socialism.

[Josephus]

The Toronto Star officially endorsed the NDP today. They did have a second, smaller editorial saying that while they endorse the NDP they suggest that voters in Toronto continue to vote Liberal, less the split in the vote gives the Conservatives the riding. Also a recent poll puts them at 33 per cent.

Well fuck.

Did the total Conservative number of votes actually go up since 2008? I sure hope so, else the system sorta sucks.

37.6% in 2008, 39.6% in 2011.

So there was an increase, but even as a partisan I have to admit that some vote splitting helped.

Some? In Ontario it was quite a bit.

[Oexmelin]

The Bloc were polliing as normal at the start of the election campaign, right? It was only after the debates that this whole "orange surge" started in Quebec. So what happened? I don't think Quebec voted so much for the NDP as they did for Layton. But what did Duceppe do or say that destroyed the Bloc

Nothing. I don't even think people wanted to vote against Duceppe (he really was popular). All the people interviewed today by Radio-Canada admitted they voted NDP because they were so sure the Bloc would win. I wouldn't be surprised that this was widespread, and that many people voted NDP in the hopes that a number of them would win - but not that much. 

What really did it, at least IMO, is the first poll, half-assed, unscientific poll, where the NDP was portrayed as surprisingly rising. That opened the doors for people to think that the NDP was a viable option for fighting the Conservatives and going around the status quo. That showed that Quebeckers did not pay too much attention to the dynamics of the campaign outside Quebec, and entertained few deep thoughts about the programme of the NDP, apart from the feel-good rhetoric.