[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

All things considered, this election has been more interesting than expected so far. Apparently advanced polling was up by 30%; I'm looking forward to May 2nd whether we get a Conservative majority, Layton as PM or something in between.

Yeah, it has turned into something interesting in the result.  But I am still of the view it was not an exercise worth having.  No signficant policies have been discussed and the whole thing feels more like a high school popularity constest than anything else.

Layton's surge in the polls is likely going to create a larger turnout from both the left and the right.  NDP voters are more likely to come out and vote now and Conservative and Liberals voters who might have stayed home are now more likely to vote to ensure the NDP do not gain any power.

[Barrister]

Coalition to save Canada!

I was wondering what our Conservative brothers think of this scenario.

Cons Minority, gets defeated at first occasion. Do you guys want a new Election?

I think it would be terrible, but they're entitled to try.  And We're entitled to complain about it.

[Jacob]

I think it would be terrible, but they're entitled to try.  And We're entitled to complain about it.

It's all about entitlement with you, isn't it?

[Barrister]

I think it would be terrible, but they're entitled to try.  And We're entitled to complain about it.

It's all about entitlement with you, isn't it?

[crazy canuck]

Coalition to save Canada!

I was wondering what our Conservative brothers think of this scenario.

Cons Minority, gets defeated at first occasion. Do you guys want a new Election?

I would think that if the Conservatives form another minority government it will be business as usual.  The Liberals will be too busy getting out their knives to stab Iggy in the back to fight another election and the NDP will be too full of joy with their new seats to risk the ire of the voters.

The other possible scenario, which gives me nightmares, is that the NDP are strong enough to form a coalition government with the Liberals even though the Conservatives have the most seats.

In either scenario we will not be having another election for some time.

[Jacob]

Yeah, it has turned into something interesting in the result.  But I am still of the view it was not an exercise worth having.  No signficant policies have been discussed and the whole thing feels more like a high school popularity constest than anything else.

Layton's surge in the polls is likely going to create a larger turnout from both the left and the right.  NDP voters are more likely to come out and vote now and Conservative and Liberals voters who might have stayed home are now more likely to vote to ensure the NDP do not gain any power.

Will the NDP be as bad as all that? Economically, I expect they'll have to stay fairly responsible. If we do get an NDP led minority gov't (and I don't know how likely that is, in spite of all the current press), what are the realistic worst case scenarios and major changes?

I expect we'll probably be less robust in various foreign military contributions, but I doubt we'll just pull out immediately. Has the NDP made big noises about cutting military spending? Will the F35s be history?

I imagine that some of the low-key pandering to the social conservative base that Harper's put in will be replaced with similar low-key pandering to the NDP's socially progressive base, but I doubt that will be really big shakes either way.

Anything else?

I mean, if the NDP does have a solid representation in Quebec (which they'll have to have to end up in gov't), it'll change the federal-provincial dynamic a fair bit but that's not really a bad thing?

I guess I'm asking what, if any, remains of the NDP's disconcerting policies?

[Jacob]

... well, you did use the word twice in two consecutive sentences

[Jacob]

The other possible scenario, which gives me nightmares, is that the NDP are strong enough to form a coalition government with the Liberals even though the Conservatives have the most seats.

Yeah, that's what I'm curious about. Why does it give you nightmares? What's the substance of it?

I understand why BB would have them, being a true blue Conservative homer. You, on the other hand, are pretty pragmatic so I expect your reasons to be more concrete.

For sake of argument, let's posit an NDP-Liberal government, either as a formal coalition or as a standard minority government; what is the worst case scenario you envision (and why)? Conversely, assuming the same government what's the best case outcome that would make you go "hey, that's not too bad at all given who we're talking about"?

[Josephus]

So what's going on with the Conservative infighting? Peledau (the head of the new Sun Network, allegedly aiming to be the Fox News of Canada) calling out one of Harper's senior campaign staff, and the campaign dismissing him?

I'm guessing it's some internal clashes of personality, but now seems like a bad time to have it out.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/981291--conservative-operative-s-dismissal-raises-ire-within-party-ranks?bn=1

There is someone out there that actually watches the Sun network?

Apprently not.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/306090

[Josephus]

I would think that if the Conservatives form another minority government it will be business as usual.  The Liberals will be too busy getting out their knives to stab Iggy in the back to fight another election and the NDP will be too full of joy with their new seats to risk the ire of the voters.

You may very well be right. The Liberals will certainly be looking for somebody else and will not want another election for another 2-3 years at least. I also still stick to what I said very early on. If Harper cannot get a majority, he will not run again.

The other possible scenario, which gives me nightmares, is that the NDP are strong enough to form a coalition government with the Liberals even though the Conservatives have the most seats.

Seriously. Why does this give you nightmares?  Any type of coalition government, like a minority gov't, is a government of compromise. The Libs would not support the more extreme NDP views (if any exist  ). We won't be wearing Mao hats. I guarantee you.
It's the same reason why I don't mind a Harper minority win--(as a second option).  The Libs and NDP will keep him in check, as they have in the past.

What should give you, or anybody else, nightmares is an unchecked Harper majority.

[viper37]

Will the NDP be as bad as all that? Economically, I expect they'll have to stay fairly responsible.

Remember how Bob Rae destroyed Ontario in the 1990s?  That's the NDP for you.

If we do get an NDP led minority gov't (and I don't know how likely that is, in spite of all the current press), what are the realistic worst case scenarios and major changes?

Lots of new programs directly challenging provincial governments authority.
The NDP wants to create a federally funded daycare program.  Ok.  But what about the provinces that don't want it?  They're not going to give any money to Alberta if they don't have a daycare program.  In Quebec, we already have that out of control union factory fo youth.  What if the Feds standards are not the same as ours?  We'll lose our share of the money...

Repeat the scenario for healthcare, education, and just about anything.

I expect we'll probably be less robust in various foreign military contributions, but I doubt we'll just pull out immediately. Has the NDP made big noises about cutting military spending? Will the F35s be history?

They will scrap the F35 and various military expenses just like the Libs did.  And then in 20 years from now, we won't have any decent planes & equipments and our soldiers will waste their lives on foreign shores because this government did not commit the necessary resources to maintain a well equipped army with the basic nessecities.  Remember the helicopters?  It costed just as much to get rid of the program and find a new one.  And we don't have a sufficient number of helos now.  So in Afghanistan, they drive over IEDs instead of flying by helicopter.

I imagine that some of the low-key pandering to the social conservative base that Harper's put in will be replaced with similar low-key pandering to the NDP's socially progressive base, but I doubt that will be really big shakes either way.

They are followers of that canadian multi-culturalism sillyness à la Trudeau.  They'll do anything they can to drown Quebec and the French minority in the sea of englishness that is Canada.

I mean, if the NDP does have a solid representation in Quebec (which they'll have to have to end up in gov't), it'll change the federal-provincial dynamic a fair bit but that's not really a bad thing?

With unilingual anglophones not living in their ridings?  I doubt that.

I guess I'm asking what, if any, remains of the NDP's disconcerting policies?

Read their program.  It's a bunch of sillyness, just as bad as the Bloc.

[Grey Fox]

NPD would probably just do 2 things a little controversial : Raising Corporate Taxes & eliminating the Oil Subsidies(really we still have those?).

@Viper & whats your alternative mister Fancy pants?

[crazy canuck]

Economically, I expect they'll have to stay fairly responsible.

Why would you think that?

The provincial NDP parties have essentially purged themselves of socialists in order to become electable as governments.  Most of those folks end up migrating to the Federal NDP party.  Case in point Libby Davies.  Also consider why Rae and Dosanj went from being NDP premiers to become Liberal federal members. 

The NDP would introduce fundamental change the tax system in Canada.  What do you think all their supporters mean by "a fair tax system".   One example is they want to levy taxes on Capital (which Adrian Dix now wants to do in BC).  You just have to look at how that destroyed any capital investment in BC during the Glen Clarke years to shudder at the thought of such a disasterous policy being implemented Canada wide.

That is just one example off the top of my head.  Nobody takes the NDP seriously on the federal level because they never have had a shot at any power.  Any sane electorate would keep it that way.

[Josephus]

NPD would probably just do 2 things a little controversial : Raising Corporate Taxes & eliminating the Oil Subsidies(really we still have those?).

@Viper & whats your alternative mister Fancy pants?

Don't forget all you doomsayers.....IF the NDP wins anything it will be a minority gov't; which limits its ability to get much of its agenda passed; unlike a Harper majority.

In any case, I'd be willing to bet my house the NDP WILL NOT win. Oh, there are some out there now playing that unlikely scenario as an armageddon scenario to vote for either the Liberals or the Conservatives instead.

And, in case you forgot, the NDP is still a pro-market party. Slightly to the left but they don't sing the Internationale at their meetings and raise the hammer and sickle anywhere....despite what others would have you believe.

I don't care who wins the election as long as the electorate is sane enough not to give Harper his chance at that majority he craves so much you know he's dreaming about it.

[Jacob]

Remember how Bob Rae destroyed Ontario in the 1990s?  That's the NDP for you.

I think Rae gets a much worse rap than he deserves, to be honest.

Lots of new programs directly challenging provincial governments authority.
The NDP wants to create a federally funded daycare program.  Ok.  But what about the provinces that don't want it?  They're not going to give any money to Alberta if they don't have a daycare program.  In Quebec, we already have that out of control union factory fo youth.  What if the Feds standards are not the same as ours?  We'll lose our share of the money...

Repeat the scenario for healthcare, education, and just about anything.

Somehow, I don't think the NDP will hard core screw Quebec's interests if a significant part of their government relies on MPs from Quebec.

They will scrap the F35 and various military expenses just like the Libs did.  And then in 20 years from now, we won't have any decent planes & equipments and our soldiers will waste their lives on foreign shores because this government did not commit the necessary resources to maintain a well equipped army with the basic nessecities.  Remember the helicopters?  It costed just as much to get rid of the program and find a new one.  And we don't have a sufficient number of helos now.  So in Afghanistan, they drive over IEDs instead of flying by helicopter.

Yeah, I expect that's probably true.

They are followers of that canadian multi-culturalism sillyness à la Trudeau.  They'll do anything they can to drown Quebec and the French minority in the sea of englishness that is Canada.

Really? An NDP government predicated on unprecedented success among Francophone Quebecois will do anything to drown Quebec and the French minority?

With unilingual anglophones not living in their ridings?  I doubt that.

I don't know what you mean by this.