Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

Started by Josquius, February 20, 2016, 07:46:34 AM

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How would you vote on Britain remaining in the EU?

British- Remain
12 (12%)
British - Leave
7 (7%)
Other European - Remain
21 (21%)
Other European - Leave
6 (6%)
ROTW - Remain
34 (34%)
ROTW - Leave
20 (20%)

Total Members Voted: 98

Sheilbh

Quote from: Tamas on June 28, 2016, 02:31:04 AM
One thing I am fairly certain of is that American and European financial circles in London will be replaced by Arabic, Chinese, and Russian ones
That's no bad thing and to an extent has already happened. London is already a (the?) world-leading centre in Islamic Finance. The biggest litigation of recent years has been Russian oligarchs suing each other. There's loads of institutions which already separate out UKMEA and Europe.

As the Asian centres are trying to become more important in Western markets London's trying to do the reverse.

For what it's worth no one I know who works in the City expects to be personally affected precisely because they mainly work with American/Asian clients.
Let's bomb Russia!

Tamas

Quote from: Sheilbh on June 28, 2016, 02:47:23 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 28, 2016, 02:31:04 AM
One thing I am fairly certain of is that American and European financial circles in London will be replaced by Arabic, Chinese, and Russian ones
That's no bad thing and to an extent has already happened. London is already a (the?) world-leading centre in Islamic Finance. The biggest litigation of recent years has been Russian oligarchs suing each other. There's loads of institutions which already separate out UKMEA and Europe.

As the Asian centres are trying to become more important in Western markets London's trying to do the reverse.

For what it's worth no one I know who works in the City expects to be personally affected precisely because they mainly work with American/Asian clients.

If you think replacing North American and European money with money from assorted corrupt oligarchies is a good influence, then, well, good for you. :D

Josquius

Khan has said immigrants are welcome in London.
I've long wondered whether some sort of devolution of handing work visas could work.
Let London and other places that want migrants have them.
Let places like the north stew in their own juices that they can't blame imaginary immigrants for everything anymore.

Quote from: Tamas on June 28, 2016, 02:31:04 AM
Quote from: Tyr on June 28, 2016, 02:14:52 AM
Has anyone seen anything on the small scale economic implications yet?
I know before the ref a lot of businesses had contracts delayed, orders on hold, etc....
Now that we've left I'd imagine a lot of work has been cancelled.
Job losses appearing in small manufacturers yet?

This will take years to play out. There will be a screeching halt to international investments, both in the UK and by Brits in the world, until the deal is worked out, by around 2019. Then what happens is entirely  up to the deal.

One thing I am fairly certain of is that American and European financial circles in London will be replaced by Arabic, Chinese, and Russian ones

That's the big stuff though.
I'm on about the little companies employing a few dozen people and working contract to contract.
The big companies will be fine whatever happens. It's these little guys that worry me.
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Tamas

Quote from: Tyr on June 28, 2016, 03:53:05 AM
Khan has said immigrants are welcome in London.
I've long wondered whether some sort of devolution of handing work visas could work.


That's a horrible idea, you would end up like Russia where you have permits to visit parts of the country. You'd just have the permits to accept jobs or rent/own property.

jimmy olsen

Quote from: Tamas on June 28, 2016, 02:31:04 AM

One thing I am fairly certain of is that American and European financial circles in London will be replaced by Arabic, Chinese, and Russian ones

Chinese maybe. Arabs and Russians are not really a long term geopolitical or economic threat given the oil market.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
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Tamas

Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 28, 2016, 04:47:53 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 28, 2016, 02:31:04 AM

One thing I am fairly certain of is that American and European financial circles in London will be replaced by Arabic, Chinese, and Russian ones

Chinese maybe. Arabs and Russians are not really a long term geopolitical or economic threat given the oil market.

Even smarter to base London's economy on them, then!

Josquius

A more serious thought - so laws between britain and Ireland state that a Brit in Ireland and an Irishman in britain have the same rights.
Essentially a brit in Ireland is counted as being british.
...
Does that mean I can be an eu citizen if I live in Ireland?

( I checked a while back for getting Irish citizenship for myself. My dad I entitled to it but never bothered as keeping his british passport was fine. He could get it today and this would mean my kids could get it but not me as I'm already born :bleeding:)
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Richard Hakluyt

So your dad has an Ireland-born grandparent then?

You would not be an EU citizen if you just went and lived in Ireland btw, could wangle it though if you married some Irish girl  :cool:

Josquius

#2138
My dad is half Irish. 
I even lived over there a bit when I was a baby.
Only trouble is his mother was born after the family moved to England and was never registered as being Irish (afaik. ... I should give it a serious check. The family story says they were loyalists who left because of serious disagreements with the power that be so.... I doubt it)

Ok. New plan for survival.
Get my dad to register as Irish through his grandad.
I have a kid (that's the hard part), register it as Irish through its grandad (my dad).
Claim Irish citizenship myself on account of being the parent of an Irish baby
What could possibly go wrong?
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mongers

Quote from: Tyr on June 28, 2016, 06:41:40 AM
My dad is half Irish. 
I even lived over there a bit when I was a baby.
Only trouble is his mother was born after the family moved to England and was never registered as being Irish (afaik. ... I should give it a serious check).

Ok. New plan for survival.
Get my dad to register as Irish through his grandad.
I have a kid (that's the hard part), register it as Irish through its grandad (my dad).
Claim Irish citizenship myself on account of being the parent of an Irish baby
What could possibly go wrong?

Ireland leaves the EU?
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

Richard Hakluyt

Give it 20 years and there will be very few English left. Reservations could be set up for them, they could drink lager, beat the shit out of each other and play extremely bad football. Perhaps we could take a leaf out of America's book and let them run casinos too.

Tamas

I've realised I can get the best of both worlds if I can grab myself a UK citizenship before the far-right deports me, while holding on to my Hungarian citizenship as well! :w00t:


Sheilbh

Markets seem to be out of the knee jerk phase (hopefully) European banks looking very shaky. Rumours of rescue package in Rome. Anyone know why such a big problem for them? General uncertainty on top of pre-existing weaknesses ? Higher cost of funds without London? It seems odd :mellow:
Let's bomb Russia!

Sheilbh

Corbyn reportedly asking if the SNP or Greens will join his shadow cabinet :blink:
Let's bomb Russia!

garbon

Quote from: Tamas on June 28, 2016, 07:30:58 AM
I've realised I can get the best of both worlds if I can grab myself a UK citizenship before the far-right deports me, while holding on to my Hungarian citizenship as well! :w00t:



Is Hungarian citizenship part of any good world, let alone best world? :hmm:
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.