Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[alfred russel]

God Labour are in trouble

Why do you say that?

[Sheilbh]

Legally this referendum isn't technically binding is it? I understand it's "viewed" as politically binding. But what happens if Cameron refuses to execute it and he maintains enough support in commons to remain PM? If he steps down and a new election is held and the Farage/Johnson types can't win a government could parliament not simply refuse to do anything about this referendum?

Then they would be able to refuse to do anything. Parliament is sovereign.

Legally the referendum isn't binding because we have a sovereign Parliament, practically, politically, there is no way that Parliament will ignore that.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Interesting results, looks like we might be leaving. I'm very interested in the Broxbourne vote, I would have thought it was too comfortable a place to have such a big leave vote, never been there so I may have the wrong image of the place.

[mongers]

South Tyneside votes Leave 62%-38%.


It's like the places the denizens of the Westminster bubble forgot about are biting back.

[Sheilbh]

God Labour are in trouble

Why do you say that?

Looks like the turnout in Labour areas is higher and it looks like that is because of Leave voters.

I'm not sure that Labour, having just watched Angela Eagle, has an answer to that. And it's striking that this is the one area that moderate Labour MPs forced a change on Corbyn. It equally looks like turnout in comfortable, remain-ish Tory areas may be lower than normal and it's voters you'd expect to remain who stayed at home.

It's very, very early - but I think we're on our way out.

Edit: It looks like non-voters are turning out and there's a big class element and working class voters are saying Leave. That's a problem for Labour. It was dismissed by a lot of people when it was suggested that UKIP might be more of a threat to Labour than the Tories - I think it's happening now.

[mongers]

Interesting results, looks like we might be leaving. I'm very interested in the Broxbourne vote, I would have thought it was too comfortable a place to have such a big leave vote, never been there so I may have the wrong image of the place.

I'm in the New Forest, a similarly well-off area and I've just heard leave sentiment* all the time.



* polite word, there arguments haven't been especially reasoned.

[Richard Hakluyt]

God Labour are in trouble

Why do you say that?

It looks like hardly anyone in the UK subscribes to their political views.

[mongers]

Looks like the turnout in Labour areas is higher and it looks like that is because of Leave voters.

I'm not sure that Labour, having just watched Angela Eagle, has an answer to that. And it's striking that this is the one area that moderate Labour MPs forced a change on Corbyn. It equally looks like turnout in comfortable, remain-ish Tory areas may be lower than normal and it's voters you'd expect to remain who stayed at home.

It's very, very early - but I think we're on our way out.

I'll activate my 2016 Summer UK crisis thread then, shall I?

[Sheilbh]

God Labour are in trouble

Why do you say that?

It looks like hardly anyone in the UK subscribes to their political views.

Europe looks like another issue that is London, Brighton, Bristol, Oxbridge + Scotland against the rest of the country. Who said class was dead?

[Agelastus]

A Northern Ireland leave result - Lagan 53.1-46.9.

A DUP area, but I had thought Northern Ireland was supposed to be solidly remain (from the absurdly limited amount of polling done that included Northern Ireland, admittedly.)

[OttoVonBismarck]

I'm not quite sure why Britain voted after Obama noted his opposition to leave. I feel this repudiation of America's authority is unacceptable.

[mongers]

God Labour are in trouble

Why do you say that?

It looks like hardly anyone in the UK subscribes to their political views.

Europe looks like another issue that is London, Brighton, Bristol, Oxbridge + Scotland against the rest of the country. Who said class was dead?

Those on the right side of the class divide.

[Sheilbh]

A Northern Ireland leave result - Lagan 53.1-46.9.

A DUP area, but I had thought Northern Ireland was supposed to be solidly remain (from the absurdly limited amount of polling done that included Northern Ireland, admittedly.)

Apparently UUP (all five of them) were 60% in favour of Leave. I think it's a unionist/nationalist divide plus sensible moderates who know Northern Ireland really needs to stay in the EU.

Foyle was about 70% remain - mostly nationalists but some less sectarian votes too I imagine.

[mongers]

I'm not quite sure why Britain voted after Obama noted his opposition to leave. I feel this repudiation of America's authority is unacceptable.

I'd say fully 2/3 of the country thought his intervention arrogant and wrong.

[OttoVonBismarck]

 All joking aside, while I opposed leave as an American (I think a united Europe is better for our interests, both politically and economically) and I think remaining is better for the UK economically, I can't deny strong sympathies for leave. As someone disconnected it's easy to lean one way out of economic self-interest, but there is more to life than the economy. There's a strong, in my opinion, political argument that for the EU to really work it needs its members all in, or not in. I think the "limbo" that the UK has been in ever since it negotiated out of being part of things like the Eurozone and etc isn't ideal politically for either party (but again, it's beneficial economically.) I personally am a big believer in the sovereignty of states, and I'd oppose the U.S. giving up its sovereignty in the way Britain has--regardless of the economic benefits. So I do think if Britain as a country doesn't want to be all in akin to France and Germany, that leave may represent a genuine British desire for political independence and sovereignty, and I think there's value in that, if it's what the people want, regardless of the market reaction.