Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Agelastus]

Why don't they do an exit poll? Those are done for every election here (not local elections of course).

Because Exit polls are created by working from the data of the last election and then adjusting it by having volunteers asking voters for their votes from all the polling stations in 55-60 constituencies or so.

For a referendum last this the last relevant data is from 40 years ago; hence no Exit polls.

See here -

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9697

[Maladict]

[Agelastus]

Undecided voters think that the EU wants to destroy the universe and rebuild it in its' own image?

[Zanza]

Hmm. Picking a statistically significant number of demographically representative polling stations should be possible, no? It's possible in other countries. And unlike the general election, the question is much easier and there is just a single huge constituency.

[Maladict]

Hmm. Picking a statistically significant number of demographically representative polling stations should be possible, no? It's possible in other countries. And unlike the general election, the question is much easier and there is just a single huge constituency.

Yes, and they're actually doing that. Why you can't call it an exit poll is beyond me.

Seems like 52-54% for Remain.

[Duque de Bragança]

Hmm. Picking a statistically significant number of demographically representative polling stations should be possible, no? It's possible in other countries. And unlike the general election, the question is much easier and there is just a single huge constituency.

Yes, and they're actually doing that. Why you can't call it an exit poll is beyond me.

Seems like 52-54% for Remain.

Damn! 

[Agelastus]

Hmm. Picking a statistically significant number of demographically representative polling stations should be possible, no? It's possible in other countries. And unlike the general election, the question is much easier and there is just a single huge constituency.

Yes, and they're actually doing that. Why you can't call it an exit poll is beyond me.

Seems like 52-54% for Remain.

Here's the critical bit from the article on that link I posted -

The way exit polls are done at general elections can't be done for a referendum. I'm not privy to the BBC's discussions, but my guess is that the reason they are not doing an exit poll is for technical reasons: the method the exit poll team use for general elections would not and cannot work for a referendum. Here's why. At general elections the team try to revisit the same polling stations at each election (obviously some are added as electoral battlegrounds change, but the core remains the same) the projection is then done by looking at the changes in support in those polling stations since the exit poll five years before. Curtice, Fisher and colleagues will look at patterns of change (e.g, are there bigger or smaller changes in different regions, or where there are different parties in contention) and use that to project the swing across different types of seat. While the overall swing can be used to come up with national shares of the vote, that's very much a by-product, at its heart the exit poll is all about change since the last election.

If polls of voters taken at polling stations during the day are being released now the Polling Stations have closed (and no-one's talking about them on the coverage, by the way) they're simply massively expensive opinion polls with a marginally increased accuracy over the pre-referendum polls. With the proviso, of course, that the pre-Referendum polls have their weightings generally correct which admittedly is a big question at the moment.

[Malthus]

If Brexit wins after this, it will be a real "Dewey defeats Truman" moment.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/eu-referendum-will-it-be-brexit-exit-poll-and-results-live/

[Josquius]

Just last year things were similar with us looking set for a hung parliament and then.... bam. Tory majority.


I'm getting a lot of Facebook updates from earlier in the day from people saying they voted.
Many of whom are not usually bothered about politics.
One cousin has said she voted.  Leave it seems. My posh aunt liked this....despite her son living in Vienna.
A few pleasantly saying remain and a few lumpens I had assumed wouldn't vote, voting leave. Making sure they had a pen and not a pencil. Where did this conspiracy come from? It's everywhere.
One educated girl I know was worrying saying she didn't know which way to vote.

This is the critical battleground I think. Did enough soft Remainers recognise the threat to vote and did enough of the Jeremy kyle segment of society bother to go and vent their anger at the world with leave.

[Agelastus]

Ah, I see.

You're talking about Yougov's voting day poll of 5000 voters.

Which while larger than normal is compiled by Yougov's normal methods rather than by picketing polling stations (Yougov couldn't afford to do that.)

And which they also did at the General Election with the wrong result compared to the proper Exit Poll.

I've said all along Remain will win, but Yougov's poll is not likely to be that much more accurate than the last week's opinion polls.

[Agelastus]

And Gibraltar are the first declaration.

Roughly 95% for remain, I think.

Which is apparently the least surprising thing about the whole campaign.

[mongers]

Newcastle supposedly firmly in the Remain end of the spectrum has narrowly gone Remain by just 50.7% to 49.3%.

That's worrying.

[celedhring]

Sunderland 62% leave, I read.

Always dependable, the mackems. 

[mongers]

Massive Leave majority in Sunderland out of 129,000 - 82,300 Leave, 57,000 Remain. 

[mongers]

Can someone kick the BBC's Jeremy Vine in the nuts, he is Way more annoying that our dear Timmay.