Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

I just heard a clip of Sunak's acceptance speech and he came across incredibly wooden and robotic. Is he just not a good public speaker or maybe the material wasn't great?

Sounds like his normal public speaking self minus slightly more nerves than usual, which is understandable to be fair.

[The Larch]

Apparently the first measure Sunak has taken is kicking Rees-Mogg from the government. 

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - yesterday's speech was weird in a lot of ways. Seems a bit less nervy/more like his normal style today:
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1584862777184817155?s=46&t=rDz3J47nei9Si-QEYECTBQ

Also far better than the one yesterday.

[Duque de Bragança]

Apparently the first measure Sunak has taken is kicking Rees-Mogg from the government. 

Makes sense. 

[HVC]

Boris and Rishi

[Sheilbh]

Although I think Sunak is far more David Brent
https://twitter.com/accidentalp/status/1584498904145747969?s=21&t=gwI8UFLQ8ZqGlnBFeWfzdQ

[Sheilbh]

Sunak's recent ancestors all seem to have been born in places ruled by Britain. So, he was born in Southampton, his dad in colonial Kenya, his mum in colonial Tanganyika and his grandparents in British India.

I think they might not have been immigrants at all, at least in the sense that when they moved their passports gave them the the right of abode in these various territories, so they were moving within the Imperial framework.

I did see a Kenyan journalist saying they'd given Obama to the US, Sunak to the UK...China's next

I think it's an interesting side of Sunak because his family background is, as you say, very shaped by empire and post-colonial. There is also the classic example of middle class, aspirational immigrant parents - a GP and a pharmacist. But there's also an element of globalisation with Sunak's background that I find quite interesting: elite education including a stint in a US university where he met his future wife whose dad is a founder of a huge Indian IT company. I'm sure there are other examples but it strikes as a very 21st century thing that he is PM of the UK while also having a family connection to elite circles in India - it's interesting. It makes me think a bit of the old pre-WW1 European aristocracy in a way, just a modern, globalised, tech version of that.

Separately and why, despite close hypothetical polling between him and Johnson, I think he's the far more solid choice for the Tories:


And I mentioned it earlier but if this is Labour's thinking on how to attack him, I'm a little worried. I think the weak "party first" line and attacking his record as Chancellor are probably good - I think Zanza's right that the Tories will fall back into infighting probably. But I'm really not sold on the Rishi as a "weird guy" v Starmer as a "centrist dad"

Starmer urges focused Sunak attack lines as Tories expect 'poll bounce'
Labour leader says shadow cabinet should stick to tried and tested criticism of the new PM
Jessica Elgot Deputy political editor
@jessicaelgot
Tue 25 Oct 2022 14.11 BST
Last modified on Tue 25 Oct 2022 14.26 BST

Labour has a stock of well-honed attack lines to use against Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer told his shadow cabinet on Tuesday, though he warned the new prime minister was likely to get "a significant poll bounce" as the UK breathed a sigh of relief over Liz Truss's departure.

Starmer told the meeting Sunak "has only ever fought one leadership election battle his entire life and got thrashed by Liz Truss. And no wonder he doesn't want to fight a general election".

The Labour leader said it was a moment of pride for Sunak to be the first British Asian prime minister, but said the party had three messages to keep in mind: the Tories had put their "party first, country second", the government planned to make working people pay for their mistakes and MPs and shadow ministers should "ignore the noise" if poll leads started to crumble.

Starmer said the party would not be complacent about facing Sunak, who will present a different challenge to Truss and Boris Johnson. "We all know Rishi Sunak is going to give them a significant poll bounce," he said. "He's going to get a double bounce: the usual new prime minister bounce plus the one Liz Truss managed to bungle."

Nobody at the meeting had ever believed Labour's enormous 36-point poll lead would affect the status quo, he added. "No one in this room ever thought the polls were anything but an enjoyable story. That's why we've said all along, no complacency, no caution, no letting up."

Over the coming weeks, Starmer will focus on how the Conservatives have prioritised party interests over those of the country, warning that working people will pay in tax rises and spending cuts for Tory mistakes.

He told shadow cabinet ministers that Sunak should not be allowed to paint himself as a "new broom", and Labour would blame him for the Tory party's economic missteps.

Starmer will also focus on Sunak's record as chancellor: low growth, high inflation and raise taxes for working people. MPs and shadow ministers will also attack Sunak's ruthlessness in forcing out Johnson, his Partygate fine and his defeat by Truss, which Labour will paint as a humiliation.

He hinted at those attacks at the address in shadow cabinet, calling Sunak "ruthless" and saying he "stabbed Boris Johnson in the back when he thought he could get his job".

The Labour leader will face his third prime minister at prime minister's questions on Wednesday, facing the challenge of more united Conservative green benches. Allies of Starmer conceded that his public persona was closer to Sunak's than to Truss or Johnson, and that he would need to draw an ideological differential.

"Essentially it is about a positive vision for the country, a new way of building a better economy – not reverting to the old tunes of austerity," said one senior aide. Starmer's advisers believe they can also draw a distinction in their characters, with Sunak as a "weird guy" attempting to present himself as slick and Starmer as a reliable "centrist dad".

Labour insiders have always claimed to be confident attacking Sunak as the strategy has been developed over the long term, beginning early last year when the shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, told colleagues the party needed to find a way to attack his slick, popular image.

The final version was thrashed over the summer before the Tory leadership contest, starting with "the chancellor who raised your taxes while his family avoided their own" – a reference to Sunak's wife's status as a non-dom until the spring.

Now Starmer will paint him as "a weak prime minister who will have to put his party first and the country second", he told shadow ministers. "His first message yesterday was about the need to save the Tory party, not serve the country."

Key to that attack, which Starmer referred to in shadow cabinet, was Sunak's recorded boast that he had ripped up funding formulas handing money to deprived urban areas to redistribute it to more well-off, predominantly Conservative areas.

There is no plan to make direct attacks on Sunak's £700m net worth, much of which was inherited through his wife's stake in her billionaire father's business, but shadow ministers are expected to paint him as "out of touch" with references to gaffes about his use of contactless payments or disclosing that his family buys multiple different kinds of bread.

[Tamas]

Ah the fresh new goverment of Sunak: Braverman is back as Home Secretary about a week after having to resign the post due to a security breach.

Savior Sunak is off to a strong start.

[Josquius]

Although I think Sunak is far more David Brent
https://twitter.com/accidentalp/status/1584498904145747969?s=21&t=gwI8UFLQ8ZqGlnBFeWfzdQ

Interestingly this shows how influenced by the US he is with the sugar thing being untrue.

[garbon]

Ah the fresh new goverment of Sunak: Braverman is back as Home Secretary about a week after having to resign the post due to a security breach.

Savior Sunak is off to a strong start.

Yeah same old shit.

[Sheilbh]

Ah the fresh new goverment of Sunak: Braverman is back as Home Secretary about a week after having to resign the post due to a security breach.

Savior Sunak is off to a strong start.

Suspect there may have been a deal for her endorsement. But I think a dreadful appointment (again) on any measure - including politically, we know she'll just use it to position herself as leader of the right. Personally I don't think Dorries had a bad idea in suggesting Mordaunt get Home.

And Sunak apparently talked about a "broad" government. In answer to Zanza's question on Tory in-fighting, Truss went for the narrow, ideologically coherent cabinet - Sunak's clearly wanting one with all of the factions/leadership groups included. Not fully sold - particularly with Braverman, especially as Sunak won't have this much political capital/power again.

[garbon]

Ah the fresh new goverment of Sunak: Braverman is back as Home Secretary about a week after having to resign the post due to a security breach.

Savior Sunak is off to a strong start.

Suspect there may have been a deal for her endorsement. But I think a dreadful appointment (again) on any measure - including politically, we know she'll just use it to position herself as leader of the right. Personally I don't think Dorries had a bad idea in suggesting Mordaunt get Home.

And Sunak apparently talked about a "broad" government. In answer to Zanza's question on Tory in-fighting, Truss went for the narrow, ideologically coherent cabinet - Sunak's clearly wanting one with all of the factions/leadership groups included. Not fully sold - particularly with Braverman, especially as Sunak won't have this much political capital/power again.

Yeah, I see it from a bit of a broad thing (and you avoid odious indviduals like Rees-Mogg) but it also feels like the wrong move as the guy who is going to fix the economy. Getting harder on immigration will help the UK fill all those empty jobs?

[Zanza]

The new business secretary said they will keep the retained EU law revocation bill as revoking all that regulation will somehow boost growth. Notwithstanding the level playing field clause in FTAs or business associations being against it. Pure unadulterated Brexit bullshit. Hardly a promising start.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, I see it from a bit of a broad thing (and you avoid odious indviduals like Rees-Mogg) but it also feels like the wrong move as the guy who is going to fix the economy. Getting harder on immigration will help the UK fill all those empty jobs?

Well also that's the bit of Braverman that I think is politically risky. She was briefing that she had massive rows with Truss on immigration (the document she leaked was market sensitive because it was economic projections on higher immigration), took a pot shot at the liberalisation of migration rules in the India trade deal plus free-lancing back to net immigration in the tens of thousands which was the Cameron-May position but not in the 2019 manifesto.

It's not clear she was actually doing anything to achieve that and from what I read she wasn't impressing in terms of actually getting a grip of the Home Office which is probably the most difficult job in government. Instead it seemed like she was using it as a platform from which to establish her credentials as the candidate of the right next time round.

As I say my suspicion with her is that this was the deal for her endorsement - I think Badenoch or Mordaunt would have been a better appointment. Especially as Hunt is locked in as Chancellor and Cleverly has had good reviews from FCDO officials as Foreign Secretary - so Home Office needed to be a woman.

Again I'm just not sure of his political instincts. Almost entirely re-appointments, generally ministers back into positions they've already held and only a couple of promotions to reward key allies. Not sure this pleases anyone, is a particularly effective cabinet, or going to be a particularly united one.

There is a case that as a consequence of 13 years in power there's "great state of office" inflation going on so there are lots of people it's difficult to move without demoting. But even so this is very timid - and it's promoting people (like Braverman) who were pretty destabilising in the last government (and the one before it).

[Sheilbh]

Only minister who doesn't look like a retread and is a little interesting seems to be Gillian Keegan at Education - first Education Secretary since Johnson to have left school at 16 without any A-Levels. She got an apprenticeship - and has been a bit champion of apprenticeships since - and did a degree later in life.

Interesting background and one that aligns with areas of the system that need attention plus she's been a junior minister in the department so might be able to hit the ground running.

Edit: Also very minor but positive shift that Sunak has already called Sturgeon and Drakeford (they appear to have been the first conversations he had) - reportedly Truss never spoke to Sturgeon