Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

If Johnson does scrape a hundred, we will see just how stupid the membership is

We already know the answer, they swallowed Truss's BS, hook, line and sinker.

Seeing how utterly devoid Truss is of charisma, I cannot shake the thought that her big advantage with the membership was her skin colour. Can't imagine what else they could had possibly preferred in her.

[Richard Hakluyt]

She was going to cut taxes and growth was to magically increase to 2.5% per annum.

That is attractive enough provided you are stupid enough not to realise that it is a fantasy not a policy.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Polling out that actually shows Johnson fares best vs Starmer in a polling asking who respondents think would be the best PM, out of all the current Tory candidates.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1584110099496591361?s=20&t=JlDB7o10uYY0XCrFpkWz7A

[Sheilbh]

Baker made clear that his support is contingent on Sunak implementing the Northern Ireland bill, thus triggering a diplomatic crisis with EU and US and potentially a trade war. Hardly the stable policy Sunak is promising to the markets...

I've not seen that anywhere - Sunak made fairly strong lines on the Northern Ireland Bill in his first leadership campaign. Practically speaking I think it's as likely in the last two years of this government as it was in the first three. My view is it's broadly sound and fury signifying nothing.

This seems to me more like an indication of the extent to which Sunak is a vibes politician - or people get taken in by vibes not reality. I think there's a case that Sunak is probably the most committed, conscience based Brexiter (and probably fiscal conservative) of any of the candidates in 2016, 19 or 22. Because of his manner, his wealth, his accent and the fact that he's sensible (not centrist) people have him pegged as the "moderate" one which I don't think has ever really been true.

Aren't they expecting to resolve this week's PM election without the membership?

No. Nominations by 2pm tomorrow - if there's three candidates the MPs will vote tomorrow afternoon to eliminate one. Once they're down to two candidates they will hold an indicative ballot of who the MPs prefer. It will then go to the membership for an online vote and (for members who the party doesn't have an email address - a fair few given the Tories' demographics - CCHQ will phone them to get their vote). All wrapped up by Friday.

I'm not 100% - but if I was a betting man I'd bet on their being a coronation tomorrow. It seems more likely than not.

[Sheilbh]

Johnson announced he's not standing - he has, he says, the nominations but Sunak and Mordaunt won't work with him so for the good of the country and party unity he won't go forward

And if you believe that.

PM Sunak it is.

Edit: The state of the nominations at the point Johnson definitely had 100 but just couldn't unite the party


Today Sunak got 23 more endorsements, Johnson 4.

[Sheilbh]

Seeing how utterly devoid Truss is of charisma, I cannot shake the thought that her big advantage with the membership was her skin colour. Can't imagine what else they could had possibly preferred in her.

I don't buy that. Sunak did better with the membership than he did with the MPs after five rounds of voting and, unlike this time, the MPs didn't send a very clear message that they had a favourite (137 to Truss' 113).

Sunak dropped about 20 points in the polls over the non-dom issues and the covid fine. I think timing is key - his point of maximum leverage was in February when he was prohibitively the favourite. By July he wasn't and he wasn't even the first cabinet minister to go.

Polling of the membership of any party is difficult but the polls indicate that the members' preferred final two were Mordaunt and Badenoch - the two candidates who weren't in Johnson's cabinet. That suggests to me they actually wanted a clean break and got Johnson's Foreign Secretary and former Chancellor. Add to that the focus groups of Tory members and voters was that they wanted someone who "understood people like me" and who they could "trust" which doesn't describe a man who will be possibly our richest ever PM, whose wife fiddled her tax status and who got fined for a covid breach. There are many gossipy personal life rumours about Truss - but apart from an affair when she was trying to get selected, she's not really had any scandals.

[Sheilbh]

Kind of cool that we'll probbly get Britain's first Indian heritage and Hindu PM tomorrow, which is Diwali. Very well accidentally timed.

[Tamas]

Kind of cool that we'll probbly get Britain's first Indian heritage and Hindu PM tomorrow, which is Diwali. Very well accidentally timed.

How long are Diwali celebrations? I hope he wont ruin them by getting sacked before they end.

[Sheilbh]

Literally less than half an hour between these two:

Nadhim Zahawi
@nadhimzahawi
A day is a long time in politics...

Given today's news, it's clear that we should turn to @RishiSunak to become our next Prime Minister. Rishi is immensely talented, will command a strong majority in the parliamentary Conservative Party, and will have my full support & loyalty.

[Richard Hakluyt]

 

What a knob 

I'm so relieved that Johnson will not get to be PM again 


The bar is low

[Zanza]

I've not seen that anywhere - Sunak made fairly strong lines on the Northern Ireland Bill in his first leadership campaign. Practically speaking I think it's as likely in the last two years of this government as it was in the first three. My view is it's broadly sound and fury signifying nothing.

Baker: https://nitter.net/RidgeOnSunday/status/1584149644665589761#m

[Sheilbh]

Baker: https://nitter.net/RidgeOnSunday/status/1584149644665589761#m

Oh okay - I missed that, sorry.

But as I say in the summer leadership Sunak said there "wasn't any disagreement" between him and Truss on Northern Ireland. So I don't really see any shift from Sunak - FWIW Baker is a very strange politician but he is very deeply devout in his faith and I think that played the big role in him not backing Johnson (and in being relatively early in calling for Johnson to go). I think this line on Johnson coming back is key in his motivation: "We can't allow it to happen. I'm not willing to lay down my integrity."

And of course worth noting that when he's referring to ocurrent policy, this is what Baker himself has been following in the last month as a Northern Ireland Minister:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/02/tory-mp-steve-baker-apologies-to-ireland-and-eu-for-behaviour-during-brexit

Again it is just mood music at this stage but it is all positive. My basic view is still that there'll be a deal that addresses unionist concerns, that everyone knows roughly what that deal looks like (and have since 2016) - the rest is just noises off.

I could be wrong but my instinct is that not much more than the bare minimum of parliamentary time and political capital will be spent on the Northern Ireland Bill that I think even Truss said would take about 18 months to pass. As I say, basically the same as the last two years.

Edit:

Rishi Sunak
@RishiSunak
1/ Boris Johnson delivered Brexit and the great vaccine roll-out.

He led our country through some of the toughest challenges we have ever faced, and then took on Putin and his barbaric war in Ukraine.

We will always be grateful to him for that.
2/ Although he has decided not to run for PM again, I truly hope he continues to contribute to public life at home and abroad.

Can't help but feel Sunak means to add "preferably abroad".

Apparently Mordaunt staying in the race can't see that she'll easily get to 100 - lots of strong Boris backers now following Zahawi and jumping to Sunak by the looks of it.

[Legbiter]

Sunak will be toast as well after this winter I think.  Penny Mordaunt..watched a few clips of her, she's not a complete nonentity like Truss, not scandal-ridden like Boris and not some awful McKinsey type like Sunak. She might do, even if only by process of elimination. 

[mongers]

This is why Johnson has so many children.

[Sheilbh]

Sunak will be toast as well after this winter I think.  Penny Mordaunt..watched a few clips of her, she's not a complete nonentity like Truss, not scandal-ridden like Boris and not some awful McKinsey type like Sunak. She might do, even if only by process of elimination. 

I wonder if we end up with a spring election.

I get that they'll not want to lose their seats and will want to hold on in the hope that something will turn up in the next two years. But I just get a sense of a very exhausted party that doesn't really want to be in government any more - they want to indulge in the Labour Party's hobby and tear strips into each other which is more difficult when you're in government (and, frankly, an election would help clarify their coalition).

The issue with Mordaunt is that I'm not sure there's much there there. I still think Badenoch is probably the next/post-election leader and I think she might do quite well.