Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Latest numbers - even if Johnson were to get to 100 and win I think he must get that he couldn't effectively run the parliamentary party:

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
Latest declared and confirmed numbers of backers for each leadership wannabe - Sunak 125, Johnson 53, Mordaunt 23

Reportedly some Tory donors have been told that Johnson's not running so it looks odds on like a Sunak coronation on Monday. Nadine Dorries obviously still pushing Johnson

Edit: Incidentally I cannot imagine how bad the rest of the photos were there that this is the one they released of Johnson ringing MPs to get support:


Although according to a Sky News reporter on the same flight he was at the back of the plane and his kids were crawling on him - so that might explain it

Edit: And, for once, the Daily Mail's top-rated reader comments speak for us all:

[Sheilbh]

Sounds like no agreement between Sunak and Johnson - which is probably for the best because I don't know what Sunak could meaningfully offer Johnson.

Sunak has launched his campaign, including the line "there will be integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level of the government I lead and I will work da in and day out to get the job done". Which isn't pointed at all

Basically it feels a bit like challenging to prove he has the numbers. Given that even on the spreadsheet that counts "anonymous" support, Johnson is still on 75 while Sunak's on 140. Johnson will probably get to 100 but it doesn't seem entirely a given (and I'm not fully sure of this strategy - presumably if Johnson announces they have a load to announce at once?).

As I said the right are splitting and Steve Baker has endorsed Sunak. He said Johnson would be a "guaranteed disaster" because of the Privileges Committee investigation. "It's a guaranteed nailed on failure. We can't allow it to happen. I'm not willing to lay down my integrity".

Meanwhile Nadine Dorries has a really galaxy brain idea that the real risk from the Privileges Committee isn't their current, real investigation into Johnson but a possible one into Sunak

Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
If Rishi Sunak were to win, the focus of the privileges committee I am absolutely certain would move straight onto Rishi Sunak and what he knew - in order to embolden Labours call for a general election. With Rishi we will be in general election territory within weeks.

Edit: And Grant Shapps also endorsing Sunak - he was key to Johnson's 2019 leadership bid and attempt to survive in July. From what I've read this mainly seems to be because Shapps has a working knowledge of Excel and, based on reporting of this, in political circles that makes him fucking Gandalf.

[HVC]

So, what your saying is that I could sell my excel knowledge to the highest bidder and become a political king maker in the uk 

[Sheilbh]

So, what your saying is that I could sell my excel knowledge to the highest bidder and become a political king maker in the uk 

In fairness - not just politics in the UK. I remember the first time I used Excel in a law firm and it was like I'd brought fire

[HVC]

I shall rule all with vlookups and pivot tables!


No macros though, that's coding and thus the devils language. 

[Tamas]

With every bi-monthly Tory leadership election it becomes more and more hilarious how the eventual winner presents themselves as a fresh start. After 12 years of Tory government and the individual in question holding a variety of government positions.

But I guess we just have to suffer through Rishi "subsidise communal mixing in restaurants during a pandemic and let's get my wife a practically meaningless because we are insanely rich either way tax break" Sunak.

[mongers]

"King says politicians need to tell the hard truths"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63327087

[mongers]

With every bi-monthly Tory leadership election it becomes more and more hilarious how the eventual winner presents themselves as a fresh start. After 12 years of Tory government and the individual in question holding a variety of government positions.

But I guess we just have to suffer through Rishi "subsidise communal mixing in restaurants during a pandemic and let's get my wife a practically meaningless because we are insanely rich either way tax break" Sunak.

I think they could move to weekly contests, schedule the winner announcement for Saturday nights, to take on Strictly.

Also that way they could run again a different vegetable or fruit each week.

[Sheilbh]

Spectator reporter now saying that Johnson is apparently struggling to get the numbers - but surely those 40+ anonymous endorsements weren't just bullshit

Status now - Sunak's added another 18 public supporters today, Johnson another 3:


He definitely can still get there - there's a lot of Truss and Mordaunt supporters still to declare. But they start to need being willing to publicly say they support Johnson.

Also MPs pointing out the very practical difficulties - even if he got the 100 votes and won. He would very clearly be forced on the parliamentary party (like Corbyn and IDS) and it's not really clear how many would really be willing to serve in his government - particularly as we know November would be taken up with the Privileges Committee which is holding public hearings three times a week into the parties in Downing Street and whether Johnson lied to parliament. In all they're taking 40 hours of evidence - to add to the documentary and photographic evidence they've already received.

His former PPS and close ally briefing this morning that Johnson "made it very clear the privileges committee must and will be allowed to get on with their process. He will cooperate fully." Which is fine but I don't really see how that doesn't immediately put the party back where it was in July. I think there might be something to the theory that Johnson thought Truss wouldn't work as leader and then he'd be called back - but I think he probably miscalculated that she blew up everything in about 4 working weeks (removing the period of national mourning) which is too soon for him.

As I say I suspect if the members force Johnson the parliamentary party the Tory party might collapse.

[Josquius]

I do wonder what would happen with PM Johnson. Way too many people out there in news reporting who seem to love the idea of having him back, think he's great because he's funny, etc...
I want to have faith the majority of the public are smarter than this but...

[Sheilbh]

Braverman endorses Sunak - I imagine most of the undeclared ERG (which has been split) will now follow and go for Sunak.

It feels like it's probably all over for Johnson. They apparently tried to do a deal with Mordaunt, are still spinning they've definitely got we'll over 100 nominations. It could still happen but seems unlikely.

[Zanza]

Baker made clear that his support is contingent on Sunak implementing the Northern Ireland bill, thus triggering a diplomatic crisis with EU and US and potentially a trade war. Hardly the stable policy Sunak is promising to the markets...

[Gups]

If Johnson does scrape a hundred, we will see just how stupid the membership is

[Tamas]

Aren't they expecting to resolve this week's PM election without the membership?

[mongers]

If Johnson does scrape a hundred, we will see just how stupid the membership is

We already know the answer, they swallowed Truss's BS, hook, line and sinker.