Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[OttoVonBismarck]

1. Labour is in shambles under Corbyn.  Almost impossible to see them winning anything.

True, but moves against Corbyn have already begun.

2. An alliance with SNP is unthinkable to any pro-unionist politician.

I don't know about that, this is an extraordinary time. The SNP may have no interest in helping though, since this all but assures their goal of independence.

3. Being in the EEA doesn't actually solve any of the things people don't like about the EU.  I mean sure they could do it, but what's the point?  You're still subject to all the same rules, but now you don't get a say in them.

I conceded that when I said they'd remain in the EU in all but name, and lose any say. I think the point is 50%+1 of Brits would rather that than the alternative, since I truly believe a majority of total voters in Britain wanted to remain.

4. The passage of time hasn't made a place like Norway any more willing to enter the full EU.

I agree, but young Brits travel around Europe a hell of a lot, they're really going to want the close integration in a way Norway perhaps doesn't.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I do agree there are serious doubts about the feasibility of my scenario--I think several political impediments would be in its way, but it's kinda similar to what the (very pro-Remain) Economist is now advocating.

[Zanza]

I don't think EEA membership is realistic for Britain now. It does not address any of the points of the Leave campaign and makes some of them worse (i.e. regulation without representation, net contributions without EU payments, freedom of movement untouched, ECJ replaced by EFTA court etc.).

[Josquius]

I don't think EEA membership is realistic for Britain now. It does not address any of the points of the Leave campaign and makes some of them worse (i.e. regulation without representation, net contributions without EU payments, freedom of movement untouched, ECJ replaced by EFTA court etc.).

It's obvious we are going to get a worse deal though.
The challenge is one of damage reduction

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I actually think there's a "minimal catastrophe path forward", call me an eternal optimist. I think Britain will have to have an election to determine the form of its negotiations with the EU. Perhaps if things remain looking grim until that time, instead of a conservative government a Labour/SNP coalition comes to power and with that mandate negotiate to basically be part of the EEA in line with Norway. Leaving Britain in the EU in all but name, and creating the least disruption for both sides. It'll actually be a level of political "win" for the Euros since they'll have Britain following all the rules but no longer having a say. That situation then persists for 15-20 years until the current young generation is so large a majority that support for enthusiastic EU membership becomes the norm. Britain rejoins, and agrees to various things that make it far more "in" than it was before.

This interregnum will end up looking more like France's exit of NATO.

Note I'm not saying this will happen, just it's a potential option that isn't catastrophe for anyone.

seems my question to that regard got swamped by some stupid memes pages back

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't think EEA membership is realistic for Britain now. It does not address any of the points of the Leave campaign and makes some of them worse (i.e. regulation without representation, net contributions without EU payments, freedom of movement untouched, ECJ replaced by EFTA court etc.).

That presumes the Leave campaign is legitimately a majority. If their efforts cannot sustain a parliamentary majority, and worse for them still, a pro-EU majority wins one, I think EEA would easily be on the table.

[OttoVonBismarck]

EEA membership would be good for both sides as it forces Britain to play by the rules and also makes Leave look deeply stupid. Like you I do think this will take a long time to settle, it's unclear when Britain will invoke Article 50, and IIRC it's a two year process after that or something.

That's a long time for the somewhat ignorant British public to learn the real consequences of leaving the EU. There's news reports that the #1 google search terms on election day were things like "What happens if we leave the UK?" and "What is Brexit?" A large portion of the electorate has no adult memory of a time before membership in the EU or its predecessor organizations, and likely don't understand what's happened here. As it becomes more apparent support for trying to save things may go up enough to allow a government in Westminster to negotiate EEA membership.

[Zanza]

What do you mean with "legitimately a majority"? They just won a democractic plebiscite fair and square. 17,410,742 voted for Leave, only 16,141,241 voted for Remain. To suggest that this does not legitimately express the will of the British electorate would be the ultimate betrayal in my opinion and would surely lead to a polarization in Britain that could propel some truly nasty people into a position of power.

[Zanza]

From the Guardian live ticker:

President Obama has paid tribute to David Cameron at a summit in California.

David has been an outstanding friend and partner on the global stage and, based on our conversation, I'm confident that the UK is committed to an orderly transition out of the EU.

We agreed that our economic and financial teams will remain in close contact as we stay focused on ensuring economic growth and financial stability.

I then spoke to Chancellor [Angela] Merkel of Germany and we agreed that the United States and our European allies will work closely together in the weeks and months ahead.

I do think yesterday's vote speaks to the ongoing changes and challenges that are raised by globalisation.

It's interesting in so far as it shows that Obama found an answer to Henry Kissinger's question "Who do I call if I want to call Europe?" The empress of waffling, procrastination and indecision is ruling the continent.

[Berkut]

Is this seen at all as at least a partial failure on the part of the EU to recognize that their processes and such are not in good alignment with the desires of some of their members?

[Zanza]

Is this seen at all as at least a partial failure on the part of the EU to recognize that their processes and such are not in good alignment with the desires of some of their members?

In Germany very much so.

[Valmy]

Is this seen at all as at least a partial failure on the part of the EU to recognize that their processes and such are not in good alignment with the desires of some of their members?

Now I am no expert on the structure of the EU but my observation has always been that fixing the problems in the EU would also empower it. Which is something nobody seems to want. Am I wrong in my thinking here?

Making it more democratic would give it a powerful political mandate for example.

[derspiess]

What do you mean with "legitimately a majority"? They just won a democractic plebiscite fair and square. 17,410,742 voted for Leave, only 16,141,241 voted for Remain. To suggest that this does not legitimately express the will of the British electorate would be the ultimate betrayal in my opinion and would surely lead to a polarization in Britain that could propel some truly nasty people into a position of power.

I read/saw where turnout was 72% or more, which was a pretty good turnout IMO.  And if you don't turn out to vote for or against something this momentous, you probably didn't care enough for people to take your opinion too seriously.

[Valmy]

Yeah Britain is gone. For any other option to occur would be disastrous politically.

[The Brain]

Is this seen at all as at least a partial failure on the part of the EU to recognize that their processes and such are not in good alignment with the desires of some of their members?

Now I am no expert on the structure of the EU but my observation has always been that fixing the problems in the EU would also empower it. Which is something nobody seems to want. Am I wrong in my thinking here?

Making it more democratic would give it a powerful political mandate for example.

Mandates are not as fun as they sound.