Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Barrister]

Yeah Britain is gone. For any other option to occur would be disastrous politically.

I wouldn't the UK ultimately staying put.

My scenario goes something like this: first the UK heads notiecably into recession and stays there due to the uncertainty of leaving.  New PM (Johnson or whomever) gives notice, negotiates terms of exit.  Those terms are not good and public sentiment (and polling) turn notably against leaving.  Second referendum if held on whether the UK should leave based on those terms, or stay.

Now I should note I don't think that's going to happen, but there you go - the path for Remain to win in the end.

[Zanza]

David Cameron has been excluded from the second day of the EU summit next week.

On Wednesday the 27 Heads of State or Government will meet informally to discuss the political and practical implications of 'Brexit'. First of all, we will discuss the so called 'divorce process' as described in Art. 50 of the Treaty. And secondly, we will start a discussion on the future of the European Union with 27 Member States.

http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/2472fe1c-3a2c-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f.pdf

[Zanza]

Yeah Britain is gone. For any other option to occur would be disastrous politically.

I wouldn't the UK ultimately staying put.

My scenario goes something like this: first the UK heads notiecably into recession and stays there due to the uncertainty of leaving.  New PM (Johnson or whomever) gives notice, negotiates terms of exit.  Those terms are not good and public sentiment (and polling) turn notably against leaving.  Second referendum if held on whether the UK should leave based on those terms, or stay.

Now I should note I don't think that's going to happen, but there you go - the path for Remain to win in the end.

And then the EU is blamed for not respecting the outcome of referenda. We've been there before.

[OttoVonBismarck]

What do you mean with "legitimately a majority"? They just won a democractic plebiscite fair and square. 17,410,742 voted for Leave, only 16,141,241 voted for Remain. To suggest that this does not legitimately express the will of the British electorate would be the ultimate betrayal in my opinion and would surely lead to a polarization in Britain that could propel some truly nasty people into a position of power.

I understand--but not every voter voted. I am not saying the referendum is invalid, but it's in/out. It didn't include a referendum on the nature of "out." That is up to the next government to determine, so we can take the next general election as instructive as to the nature of relationship with the EU that the British people desire. So while I agree the of the 52% who voted "out", most would not want EEA, I think there are potentially a majority who will vote in the next election who will and their votes are just as relevant as the out vote.

[Barrister]

Yeah Britain is gone. For any other option to occur would be disastrous politically.

I wouldn't the UK ultimately staying put.

My scenario goes something like this: first the UK heads notiecably into recession and stays there due to the uncertainty of leaving.  New PM (Johnson or whomever) gives notice, negotiates terms of exit.  Those terms are not good and public sentiment (and polling) turn notably against leaving.  Second referendum if held on whether the UK should leave based on those terms, or stay.

Now I should note I don't think that's going to happen, but there you go - the path for Remain to win in the end.

And then the EU is blamed for not respecting the outcome of referenda. We've been there before.

Public sentiment has to go pretty solidly behind staying in my scenario.  If the second referendum comes back 65% staying no one is going to blame the EU.

[PJL]

I think the EEA option has merit. I initially thought it would not be possible to have that option, but given anecdotal reports that many Leave voters are having buyers remorse about the vote, I think it's definitely one of the options on the table.

[Josquius]

Interesting comment on TV in reply to the age comparison thing going about- if you break it down further then yes, older people are on average more like to be racist twats.... But not the really old. Those who lived through WW2 were overwhelmingly for remain.

No idea how true it is. Warrants investigation.

[Zanza]

I agree that the referendum was constructed extremely poorly. It just expressed what the voters don't want, not what the voters want. Saying it is up to the next government to determine that is of course correct. Will be interesting to see whether any party will openly campaign for EEA membership. I doubt that.

That said, I am not sure if EEA membership would even make any sense for Britain. The economies of Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein together are about 2% the size of the EU-27 & Britain. I doubt that Liechtenstein sets any product regulations for its market anyway, so them not having a say in the EU regulations hardly matters.

Britain is about 21% of the EU-27. I don't think it is a realistic policy to not have the fifth biggest economy in the world not having a say in its own regulations. That would just cement the perception of a massive democratic deficit in Britain.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, I think it's really hard to say. Britain is too big for this outcome to not cause serious trouble on both sides of the channel. The EU countries and their elite (namely in Germany and France) have a lot to consider here too. Both domestic concerns that will be advocating to not give Britain any special treatment, with business and economic concerns that will want to see as little upheaval as possible.

[The Minsky Moment]

One reporter described the mood among Labour MPs as 'the country's fucked, the party's fucked, might as well take out the leader'

Makes sense - something good should come out of it.
And now that the Tories are in disarray, the strategy of giving away all future elections to keep some base malcontents happy looks less attractive.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I just hope that there is someone I feel is worth voting for at the next election.

[Admiral Yi]

If the EU were fully democratic--one man one vote, majority wins, basic rights can't be voted away--I'm positive people would be bitching about that too.

[mongers]

I just hope that there is someone I feel is worth voting for at the next election.

Yeah, Nick Fallon or whatever the Liberal chap is called, seems the best of a bad bunch.

[lustindarkness]

I just hope that there is someone I feel is worth voting for at the next election.

Same on this side of the pond.

[Valmy]

If the EU were fully democratic--one man one vote, majority wins, basic rights can't be voted away--I'm positive people would be bitching about that too.

Oh absolutely. It would mean the national governments would be vastly reduced in stature. Which is the problem with the demand for the EU to be more democratic.