Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[mongers]

The discussion of an Anglosphere when it seems at least possible that Scotland and/or Northern Ireland will secede from the United Kingdom is rather silly. Little England is a much more likely outcome than an Anglosphere at this point of time.

Zanza is as always relentlessly correct.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Zanza's German came out too hard there--and missed that no one was seriously talking about an Anglosphere  here.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I bet Merkel also spoils all the fun at summit meetings just like that 

[Zanza]

Zanza's German came out too hard there--and missed that no one was seriously talking about an Anglosphere  here.

It's probably because all those bloody muppets on the Paradox forum that seem to really believe in the idea. 

[lustindarkness]

The discussion of an Anglosphere when it seems at least possible that Scotland and/or Northern Ireland will secede from the United Kingdom is rather silly. Little England is a much more likely outcome than an Anglosphere at this point of time.

Yes, very silly. Almost as silly as imagining a day when the Brits would vote to leave the EU.

[lustindarkness]

Zanza's German came out too hard there--and missed that no one was seriously talking about an Anglosphere  here.

It's probably because all those bloody muppets on the Paradox forum that seem to really believe in the idea. 

Why do you do that to yourself? Paradox forum? Really?

[OttoVonBismarck]

I actually think there's a "minimal catastrophe path forward", call me an eternal optimist. I think Britain will have to have an election to determine the form of its negotiations with the EU. Perhaps if things remain looking grim until that time, instead of a conservative government a Labour/SNP coalition comes to power and with that mandate negotiate to basically be part of the EEA in line with Norway. Leaving Britain in the EU in all but name, and creating the least disruption for both sides. It'll actually be a level of political "win" for the Euros since they'll have Britain following all the rules but no longer having a say. That situation then persists for 15-20 years until the current young generation is so large a majority that support for enthusiastic EU membership becomes the norm. Britain rejoins, and agrees to various things that make it far more "in" than it was before.

This interregnum will end up looking more like France's exit of NATO.

Note I'm not saying this will happen, just it's a potential option that isn't catastrophe for anyone.

[OttoVonBismarck]

That hypothetical is based on my belief that a majority of Brits actually wish to remain in the EU, but too many stayed home on election day out of complacency. It's likely that this vote would be a wake up call and they'll be out in droves at the next general election.

[Duque de Bragança]

In nominal terms, France is new #5, we drop to #6.

"I am not a number, I am a Free man."

Good one

[Barrister]

I actually think there's a "minimal catastrophe path forward", call me an eternal optimist. I think Britain will have to have an election to determine the form of its negotiations with the EU. Perhaps if things remain looking grim until that time, instead of a conservative government a Labour/SNP coalition comes to power and with that mandate negotiate to basically be part of the EEA in line with Norway. Leaving Britain in the EU in all but name, and creating the least disruption for both sides. It'll actually be a level of political "win" for the Euros since they'll have Britain following all the rules but no longer having a say. That situation then persists for 15-20 years until the current young generation is so large a majority that support for enthusiastic EU membership becomes the norm. Britain rejoins, and agrees to various things that make it far more "in" than it was before.

This interregnum will end up looking more like France's exit of NATO.

Note I'm not saying this will happen, just it's a potential option that isn't catastrophe for anyone.

1. Labour is in shambles under Corbyn.  Almost impossible to see them winning anything. 
2. An alliance with SNP is unthinkable to any pro-unionist politician.
3. Being in the EEA doesn't actually solve any of the things people don't like about the EU.  I mean sure they could do it, but what's the point?  You're still subject to all the same rules, but now you don't get a say in them.
4. The passage of time hasn't made a place like Norway any more willing to enter the full EU.

[Berkut]

Zanza's German came out too hard there--and missed that no one was seriously talking about an Anglosphere  here.

Uhh yeah! Not serious!

[Josquius]

3: it obeys the referendum without all out destroying the country

[Duque de Bragança]

I actually think there's a "minimal catastrophe path forward", call me an eternal optimist. I think Britain will have to have an election to determine the form of its negotiations with the EU. Perhaps if things remain looking grim until that time, instead of a conservative government a Labour/SNP coalition comes to power and with that mandate negotiate to basically be part of the EEA in line with Norway. Leaving Britain in the EU in all but name, and creating the least disruption for both sides. It'll actually be a level of political "win" for the Euros since they'll have Britain following all the rules but no longer having a say. That situation then persists for 15-20 years until the current young generation is so large a majority that support for enthusiastic EU membership becomes the norm. Britain rejoins, and agrees to various things that make it far more "in" than it was before.

This interregnum will end up looking more like France's exit of NATO.

Note I'm not saying this will happen, just it's a potential option that isn't catastrophe for anyone.

1. Labour is in shambles under Corbyn.  Almost impossible to see them winning anything. 
2. An alliance with SNP is unthinkable to any pro-unionist politician.
3. Being in the EEA doesn't actually solve any of the things people don't like about the EU.  I mean sure they could do it, but what's the point?  You're still subject to all the same rules, but now you don't get a say in them.
4. The passage of time hasn't made a place like Norway any more willing to enter the full EU.

5. France never left NATO, only NATO's integrated military command. Move itself watered down by the Lemnitzer-Aillert Agreements.

[Zanza]

If Boris Johnson becomes the leader of the Conservatives, I predict that the Tories will not be able to win a majority in a general election. There must be enough Conservative Remain voters that will not turn out for Johnson's Tories because of disgust. In that case there would probably be a hung parliament and no clear mandate to negotiate one way or the other. An alliance of Johnson with Corbyn, Sturgeon or Farage seems impossible.

In the second half of 2017 Germany and France will have reelection campaigns and both Hollande and Merkel face the threat of the anti-EU AfD and FN from the right. I doubt they are in any mood to make any concessions before their reelection. So I very much doubt that there will be any kind of speedy resolution to this.

[lustindarkness]

Now now, lets not derail this thread. How do we call the English Statehood process? Brentry does not sound as cool as Brexit.

Decession?  Re-Union? Confederated States of the Anglosphere?

I think Re-Union could work, Decession sounds negative.