Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Razgovory]

I'm going to miss Tusk.

Donald Tusk
‏Verified account @eucopresident

.@BorisJohnson, what's at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. At stake is the future of Europe and the UK as well as the security and interests of our people. You don't want a deal, you don't want an extension, you don't want to revoke, quo vadis?

I don't understand much of what is going on with this.  In my defense I never had to study British civics.  I do understand some Latin though, so at least there's that.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I'm sure Johnson is banking on the anomalies of fptp to grant him electoral victory, possibly a landslide, with only 35% support. Hopefully this "strategery" is hopelessly misguided and he gets a hammering come the election.

[Maladict]

I'm going to miss Tusk.

Donald Tusk
‏Verified account @eucopresident

.@BorisJohnson, what's at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. At stake is the future of Europe and the UK as well as the security and interests of our people. You don't want a deal, you don't want an extension, you don't want to revoke, quo vadis?

I don't understand much of what is going on with this.  In my defense I never had to study British civics.  I do understand some Latin though, so at least there's that.

Don't worry, nobody understand British politics at this point.

[Tamas]

I reckon the jokes will become true and this will become an enshrined tradition of the British monarchy.

Every year, on the last day of October, a fancy-dressed guy with a golden battleaxe will walk into the House of Commons, and yell "GIVETH THE CROWN ITS BREXIT!" then the MPs will yell back "WE SAYETH NAY!", the guy turns around and walks out, and regular proceedings resume.

[garbon]

I reckon the jokes will become true and this will become an enshrined tradition of the British monarchy.

Every year, on the last day of October, a fancy-dressed guy with a golden battleaxe will walk into the House of Commons, and yell "GIVETH THE CROWN ITS BREXIT!" then the MPs will yell back "WE SAYETH NAY!", the guy turns around and walks out, and regular proceedings resume.

Yes, I believe cel gave us a riff of that some time ago.

[Tamas]

Ah yes, now I remember.   

[Richard Hakluyt]

I'd be ok with that.

Johnson is trampling on too many conventions though........we may have to think about defining the constitution more clearly 

[Josquius]

The theory of the queen being there to safeguard against fascism in the UK has certainly fell apart

[mongers]

I'd be ok with that.

Johnson is trampling on too many conventions though........we may have to think about defining the constitution more clearly 

Yes, baby and bathwater.

Time for a written constitution, but drawn up by whom? 

[Richard Hakluyt]

We will need someone with matchless wisdom.....

[mongers]

We will need someone with matchless wisdom.....

The Languishites; it would give all of us something argue the toss about during the looming dark winter evenings. 

[Tamas]

Damian Green, leader of the One Nation caucus of MPs, says Boris Johnson told him at meeting:
- he will not go into election promising no deal Brexit
- he will not make a pact with Nigel Farage.
"We looked each other in the eye. I accept and believe the reassurances," says Green

Obviously, this does not mean Boris Johnson has given up trying to take the UK out of the EU before 31 October.

It means that, if Brexit does get extended against his wishes, and he has to fight an election, he says he will not campaign on a Brexit party-style no-deal platform, as an unnamed No 10 insider (almost universally assumed to be Dominic Cummings) told the Spectator.

Oh for crying out loud. Analysing what Johnson saying means. It means precisely nothing. He might do what he just said, or the exact opposite. For an observer, the odds are 50-50.

[Richard Hakluyt]

He's a liar who occasionally throws everything into confusion by telling the truth 

[Sheilbh]

Damian Green, leader of the One Nation caucus of MPs, says Boris Johnson told him at meeting:
- he will not go into election promising no deal Brexit
- he will not make a pact with Nigel Farage.
"We looked each other in the eye. I accept and believe the reassurances," says Green

Obviously, this does not mean Boris Johnson has given up trying to take the UK out of the EU before 31 October.

It means that, if Brexit does get extended against his wishes, and he has to fight an election, he says he will not campaign on a Brexit party-style no-deal platform, as an unnamed No 10 insider (almost universally assumed to be Dominic Cummings) told the Spectator.

Oh for crying out loud. Analysing what Johnson saying means. It means precisely nothing. He might do what he just said, or the exact opposite. For an observer, the odds are 50-50.

Unnamed Number 10 sources have now denied saying that or meaning it. Which just goes to show you should never speak to Johnson unless you're also able to get Cummings' sign off.

The Scottish Inner House have pushed back their judgment on the nobile officium. They have no reason to doubt the sincerity of the government when it submits that it will comply with law and seek an extension by 19 October. But, just to be on the safe side, the court has actually decided to wait until 21 October to issue its judgment

And I think Johnson is in a very tough political spot, of his own making. If he doesn't leave by 31st of October and he can't run on an explicitly pro-no deal manifesto then I think Farage and the Brexit Party will really be able to pain him as May v2.

Green has the backing of 60-80 MPs who've said they will not support a no deal manifesto. Johnson could withdraw the whip again, but at that point when he's pushing for no deal there's no reason for those 60-80 MPs not to support a government of national unity, or a second referendum, or try and put May's deal back to the vote.

Given the maths it feels like Johnson wouldn't just need to win a majority, he probably needs a landslide.

Edit: Interesting. Everyone on Newsnight except the minister, was saying they would support seizing Parliamentary time on the 18 October, if there isn't a new deal and then voting for May's deal - subject to a referendum of it vs Remain (they're all calling it a "confirmatory vote").

So far that's a couple of Labour people, the Lib Dems saying they'd accept it and one of the 21 ex-Tories saying they'd support it. Assuming the SNP, Plaid and Greens were also willing to back it, then, even with a few Labour defections, I think they'd have a majority

[Tamas]

BTW, unrelated, but the new regulations on new patient registration at GPs affirms my view that the UK could really use an identity card system.