Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

It's funny how people point to Johnson's "rather die in a ditch" comment as a lie. Well, no shit? It's incredible how after a well-documented lifetime of lies and deceit, people still take what he says at face value.

Yes, but keep it simple for the simpletons. Lying on that point could well split the brexit vote between the tories and the brexit party in the next general election; opposition politicians would do well to keep it in the forefront of peoples minds.

[Syt]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/19/rory-stewarts-exit-means-the-tories-have-now-given-up-on-reality

It speaks volumes about the current state of the Conservative party that Stewart could ever have been viewed as a progressive insurgent. An alumnus of Eton and Oxford who supported every pinch of Tory austerity, enthusiastically advocated Theresa May's Brexit deal, and wanted to leave the single market to end free movement of people, he would have been ridiculed 20 years ago as a hardline figure of the right.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Not a law-breaking populist though, simply someone with different political views. The tory front bench is now populated by mendacious populist charlatans; this was never true of Mrs Thatcher's governments even at their most brutal.

[Tamas]

He supported May's deal, oh no!!!

[The Brain]

He supported May's deal, oh no!!!

No Deal is very important to the UK. I'm not sure why but there it is.

[Sheilbh]

Not a law-breaking populist though, simply someone with different political views. The tory front bench is now populated by mendacious populist charlatans; this was never true of Mrs Thatcher's governments even at their most brutal.

I mean Thatcher's governments always had a mile wide populist streak. There's nothing in itself wrong with populism, it's a style of politics, just like Rory's endearing patrician concern or a Blairite post-ideology technocracy of "what works". Personally I've always throught populism tends to be a symptom of something wrong, rather than the actual cause.

You're spot-on on the mendacious charalatans point though. With a couple of exceptions who are merely disgracing themselves with the company they're keeping.

[Sheilbh]

On the Jennifer Arcuri story apparently Johnson wrote a letter of recommendation for a (publicly paid) £100k job as CEO of Tech City - she also put him down as a reference.

One striking difference with the US is all the scoops in this story are coming from the pro-Brexit press. Politics means nothing when there's a story involving sex and cash

[Syt]

Telegraph and others report that Johnson considers sabotaging the EU if he's forced into requesting an extension to the Brexit timeline or if the EU is unwilling to enter a new deal - vetoing the EU budget, sending a Euro-sceptic commissioner etc.

[The Brain]

Telegraph and others report that Johnson considers sabotaging the EU if he's forced into requesting an extension to the Brexit timeline or if the EU is unwilling to enter a new deal - vetoing the EU budget, sending a Euro-sceptic commissioner etc.

Is there time for that in the weeks remaining?

[Zanza]

Telegraph and others report that Johnson considers sabotaging the EU if he's forced into requesting an extension to the Brexit timeline or if the EU is unwilling to enter a new deal - vetoing the EU budget, sending a Euro-sceptic commissioner etc.

Pff, another one for domestic consumption, which makes no sense. It isn't the EU that does not allow Britain to leave. It's Britain continuously asking for extension. And if Britain has so little control over the EU, how can they even sabotage it?

It just shows how little they understand the inner workings of the EU. Vetoing the budget means the previous one is rolled over, which is not great, but would also not damage the EU much, only spoil some of the political goals of the EU27. Appointing an euro-sceptic commissioner after all departments have already been assigned in the new commission will either be rejected by the EP or he will get some useless, powerless portfolio.

The idea to use sabotage to blackmail the EU into denying an extension to circumvent domestic opposition is really just total desperation. The EU will not decide against Ireland and will always grant an extension in order not to take the blame for no-deal.

Johnson seems to slowly realize the quagmire he is in and that there is no easy way out.

[Sheilbh]

I think you're giving far too much credit with this "domestic consumption" idea.

So far today we've had:
UK will be a wrecker in the EU to get someone to veto an extension.
UK is trying to get Hungary to veto an extension.
If there's a vote of no confidence and Parliament agree to a caretaker government he won't resign but force the Queen to fire him.
And "Unless the police turn up at the doors of 10 Downing Street with a warrant for the prime minister's arrest, he won't be leaving."

There's no strategy here, not even on a communications front. This is a government without a plan and no idea how to get one. I think it's just panic.

Optimistically there's the idea that by showing how much he doesn't want to ask for an extension he won't annoy voters when he does ask for one. Personally, I don't buy it.

[Iormlund]

Optimistically there's the idea that by showing how much he doesn't want to ask for an extension he won't annoy voters when he does ask for one. Personally, I don't buy it.

That would've made sense as a strategy if he would've done it from the start, calmly ticking all the boxes. Now he could come and say: "Look, I wanted to do this so badly, but they won't let me. The only way out is for you to give me a huge majority in a GE."

That went out of the window the moment he appeared to be considering breaking the law for Brexit, and focused on the People vs Parliament (and Lords, and Justices oh my) rhetoric instead of Remain vs Brexit MPs.

[Sheilbh]

That would've made sense as a strategy if he would've done it from the start, calmly ticking all the boxes. Now he could come and say: "Look, I wanted to do this so badly, but they won't let me. The only way out is for you to give me a huge majority in a GE."

That was his strategy at the start. Apparently they just did not consider the possibility of Labour voting against an election.

They hadn't considered that from Labour's perspective the best option, politically, is to have Johnson in office on 1 November with the UK still in the EU.

Having said that there is a part of me that thinks from a Labour perspective it may have been best to go early.

That went out of the window the moment he appeared to be considering breaking the law for Brexit, and focused on the People vs Parliament (and Lords, and Justices oh my) rhetoric instead of Remain vs Brexit MPs.

He was always planning on running a People v Parliament campaign.

I think fundamentally people don't pay much attention to politics. So the obsessives, like all of us, will know he's been saying "do or die" etc and we'll know the issues around the Benn Act that ultimately lead to him having to ask for an extension. And that line of really, really not wanting to do it - this is under duress - could work with the obsessives.

But for the majority of the country who don't follow the news very much I think it will just be him breaking a promise, which will be very damaging and full of split-screens on the News at 10 of him saying "do or die" and then asking for an extension. I think they're being too clever by half because, fundamentally, I think they've been boxed in by Parliament and by Labour not choosing to go for an early election.

Edit: Also for all the Dom Cummings: Master Strategist chat and all the times he quotes Bismarck, it seems pretty fucking negligent not to plan for the opposition not following your plan

[Josquius]

Falling into Johnsons election trap would have been a mistake.
On the one hand it means no parliament for most of the month and there was a lot of talk he may push the election to after brexit anyway.
On the other if an election did go ahead quickly, it stinks way too much of what the tories tried last time around and labour did very well to side step: trying to make it a pro brexit tories vs anti brexit everyone else election.
As said if we have it in November then Johnsons attempt to pint himself as the brexit side is weakened.


On Johnson. A funny 6 second interview

https://youtu.be/J6jesg5MYOs

[Richard Hakluyt]

In the slightly longer term I'm wondering which party are genuine conservatives supposed to vote for?

My suspicion is that the tories have made a colossal strategic error in promoting Johnson to PM; unless we carry on down a constant factionalist route the voters are bound to notice that the conservatives are not conservatives at some point?

Probably wishful thinking