Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

Scanning through Johnson's so-called proposal, what I am seeing is:


-There would be a sort of regulatory border between NI and GB, but the EU could have no control over it, and assuring no goods failing EU regulation enter NI from GB would be ensured solely by British authorities.

-Custom checks would be 100% based on traders/suppliers pre-announcing the border crossing of goods between the two Irelands, and customs checks would be conducted on the traders' premises as opposed to on the border. Except if you are a small business because then it would be even more easier to just laugh at the whole thing. Plus some "temporary admissions" arrangement that I don't really understand.

-This whole arrangement would last 4 years, and the various NI democratic institutions would have a say on it.


To me this reads like an "of COURSE we will have customs checks and a border *wink wink, nodge nodge*"

[Iormlund]

. Thankfully though the white far right are no less committed to bloodshed than Islamic extremists, they do tend to be a lot less competent.

Heh. Competent is hardly the first word that comes to mind when thinking about Islamic terrorists. They simply don't care whether they are caught or even live. That makes things a lot simpler.

[Sheilbh]

I wonder how long it will be before we get our first torchlit processions?

I will be impressed with Britain if we manage to put this issue to rest without violence on the street, irrespective of the actual form of Brexit. That's why I am saying we should just cancel the whole thing and weather the fascist storm. It'd be a few ugly weeks and then it'd be over. It will happen if/when a deal is signed anyways.

I do think our political system has failed to deal with the fact that an MP was assassinated by someone shouting "Britain first". Another far-right man has been convicted of plotting to murder a Labour (female) MP and since Jo Cox's murder several (almost all female) MPs have had to sleep in another property or a hotel following police recommendations.

In 2015 we didn't have a police unit to deal with threats to MPs. It was set up after Jo Cox's murder and so far, every year, the number of death and rape threats that (overwhelmingly female) MPs receive that the police have to deal with have doubled on the previous year.

On the deal the unionist position is very interesting.

Because as noted this plan does have a border in Irish sea. The DUP position seems to be that they don't care about border checks - or where they are located in Northern Ireland, so long as legally Northern Ireland is subject to UK regulations. So they don't care if the border posts are actually at, say, the Port of Belfast.

By contrast extreme unionists like the TUV have attacked the DUP, effectively, for "surrender" by accepting customs checks with the UK. On the other hand moderate unionists like the UUP have also attacked the DUP for the same point and for proposing this review every four years which, as the UUP point out, basically ties this argument into every Stormont election and will be hugely destabilising politically.

Meanwhile nationalists are, of course, not particularly happy that it's a one way review. The default is Northern Ireland aligns with the UK unless there is approval of continuing to align with the EU in accordance with Stormont's procedures, which means cross-community consensus and power sharing. So in effect you need a majority of Sinn Fein and a majority of the DUP to vote for closer alignment with the Republic. It's a unionist veto on NI following the EU.

I don't see how it's a solution and short of both sides effectively agreeing to create some sort of special economic zone of Northern Ireland, or someone proposes a very soft Brexit it's still tough to find any Brexit that even comes close to complying with the GFA.

[Zanza]

It's obviously only for domestic consumption to pretend on going negotiations and good faith. It serves preparations for the blame game. Britain is not a serious country when it comes to foreign relations, so the EU will just go through the motions before they point out the proposal is unacceptable. 

[Sheilbh]

On domestic politics worth noting that Ireland's general election is in May and Fianna Fail have broadly supported the government on their stance. If Varadkar were to weaken his position at all at this point, Fianna Fail will be all over it.

[Josquius]

The whole thing is a gift to vardakar really. He gets to fulfil the dream of Irish leaders for centuries of putting Britain in its place and stands up for republicans in the north all with no risk

[Richard Hakluyt]

Not at all. Brexit is a catastrophe for Ireland; possibly even worse for them than for the UK; though they do have the EU on their side which must provide some comfort.

[Zanza]

Short term economic pain will not make the Republic give up its long term ambition to have an open border with the North. This is one of the big misconceptions of Ireland and the EU in the British public debate. They, like the Tories, are willing to endure economic pain for political goals.

Johnson may still spin the domestic British blame game, but I doubt anybody in Ireland will blame the Dublin government for mess created by Brexit. The blame will fall squarely on the English nationalists.

[celedhring]

One of the things that flabbergasts me the most about the new Boris plan (and in fact, any plan that's not the backstop or full customs union membership) is the belief that such arrangements could up and running by the end of the month. Which is why ultimately all these negotiations are just for show.

[Zanza]

If there is a deal until end of October, there is a transition in the WA until end of 2020, with option for two more years. So they would have time to implement it.

[celedhring]

If there is a deal until end of October, there is a transition in the WA until end of 2020, with option for two more years. So they would have time to implement it.

My bad, I thought the backstop was to go live in November 1 and the two years were there to negotiate a long term arrangement.

[Duque de Bragança]

. Thankfully though the white far right are no less committed to bloodshed than Islamic extremists, they do tend to be a lot less competent.

Heh. Competent is hardly the first word that comes to mind when thinking about Islamic terrorists. They simply don't care whether they are caught or even live. That makes things a lot simpler.

Judging by ABB or the Christchurch mosque shooter and the low-cost, badly improvised of most islamic terrorist attacks I'd actually say the opposite.

[Josquius]

. Thankfully though the white far right are no less committed to bloodshed than Islamic extremists, they do tend to be a lot less competent.

Heh. Competent is hardly the first word that comes to mind when thinking about Islamic terrorists. They simply don't care whether they are caught or even live. That makes things a lot simpler.

Judging by ABB or the Christchurch mosque shooter and the low-cost, badly improvised of most islamic terrorist attacks I'd actually say the opposite.

What doesn't receive as much coverage is the many attacks that are stopped before they even get off the ground.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah and I think counter-terrorism police in the UK and Prevent have said that there are a number of regions where very much the majority of their work is the far-right/white supremacists.

[Sheilbh]

"There are two sets of border checks. They're with Ireland and the UK. Mark Francois is very excited."