[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Valmy]

Final Results:

LIB 169

CON 144

BQ 22

NDP 7

GRN 1

Will be interesting to see if the Libs can make it to 2029 in this condition.

[Jacob]

Will be interesting to see if the Libs can make it to 2029 in this condition.

The CBC analyst last night said that the typical lifetime for a minority government is 18 - 24 months.

I expect it's a fairly realistic assessment.

[Valmy]

Will be interesting to see if the Libs can make it to 2029 in this condition.

The CBC analyst last night said that the typical lifetime for a minority government is 18 - 24 months.

I expect it's a fairly realistic assessment.

Yet the Libs won a much smaller minority in 2021 and went the full four years.

[Jacob]

Yet the Libs won a much smaller minority in 2021 and went the full four years.

Yeah, it's possible they can do it again. Lot's of contingencies.

[crazy canuck]

Looking at what is left, I think the best they can do now is 171 - if the flip Maple Ridge - which oddly has a few polls still to report, and they flip the remaining undecided NDP riding in Vancouver.

But—- but —  only recently 338 was saying there was a 96 per cent chance of a Liberal majority. 

If only there was someone here on Languish who repeatedly warned us about the irrelevance of polling
 

How does that make the polling irrelevant? Saying something as a probability of occurring is not the same thing as saying it will definitely happen.

The polls got the Liberal support just about bang on.  What they missed by a bit was the lack of support for the NDP, and so that undervalued that support shifting to the Conservatives.  But I think we can cut them some slack on that since there has never been an essentially two party race in modern times.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Yet the Libs won a much smaller minority in 2021 and went the full four years.

While that's encouraging, and the Libs did fall just short of a majority, last time there was a much bigger gap between them and the CPC.  I think it may hinge on how much of the CPC's gain was real, versus frustrated minor party voters siding with them this time.

[viper37]

Looking at what is left, I think the best they can do now is 171 - if the flip Maple Ridge - which oddly has a few polls still to report, and they flip the remaining undecided NDP riding in Vancouver.

But—- but —  only recently 338 was saying there was a 96 per cent chance of a Liberal majority. 

If only there was someone here on Languish who repeatedly warned us about the irrelevance of polling
 

That dropped to 68% in the last days of the campaign, shortly before the English site was hacked.

[saskganesh]

If there's a coalition, what's left of the NDP needs to demand official party status as a starting condition. This is not unreasonable.

The magnificent seven. Book it.

[Grey Fox]

Will be interesting to see if the Libs can make it to 2029 in this condition.

The CBC analyst last night said that the typical lifetime for a minority government is 18 - 24 months.

I expect it's a fairly realistic assessment.

We'll be back at this in late 2026, just in time for the Quebec election (fixed date of October 5th 2026).

[HVC]

If there's a coalition, what's left of the NDP needs to demand official party status as a starting condition. This is not unreasonable.

The magnificent seven. Book it.

Liberals would be better off bribing one to jump ship for a majority

[Razgovory]

Congratulation on your new-ish Prime Minister

[viper37]

If there's a coalition, what's left of the NDP needs to demand official party status as a starting condition. This is not unreasonable.

The magnificent seven. Book it.

They denied recognition for the Bloc in 2015.  Unlikely the Bloc would be magnanimous today.

[Valmy]

If there's a coalition, what's left of the NDP needs to demand official party status as a starting condition. This is not unreasonable.

The magnificent seven. Book it.

What does this mean? 

[HVC]

Official part
Y means being able to ask questions in parliament and funding. Probably more things but that's the ones I know. You need a minimum number of seats. NDP didn't hit that threshold

[Valmy]

Official part means being able to ask questions in parliament and funding. Probably more things but that's the one I know. You need a minimum number of seats. NDP didn't hit that threshold

I know that NDP didn't get enough seats to be an official party. I get that being an official party is good for various reasons, probably including campaign funding I guess. I just don't understand how one gets official status and why the other parties may or may not want to help.