[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

So in the end, they are worth looking at 

[HVC]

Looking at what is left, I think the best they can do now is 171 - if the flip Maple Ridge - which oddly has a few polls still to report, and they flip the remaining undecided NDP riding in Vancouver.

But—- but —  only recently 338 was saying there was a 96 per cent chance of a Liberal majority. 

If only there was someone here on Languish who repeatedly warned us about the irrelevance of polling
 

That dropped to 68% in the last days of the campaign, shortly before the English site was hacked.

Yes, and I pointed that out. But that only proves my point that I'd been making all along....Polls weeks ahead of an election don't mean much...if anything they can affect elections.

EDIT: the only purpose they can hold is to observe trends, I suppose. A couple weeks ago majority probability was in the high 90s. then high 80s. Then late last weekend, mid 60s. It was clear by that point, that the odds of a majority were falling pretty quickly.

Putting on my conspiracy foil hat I'll say that polls are a right wing conspiring to suppress liberal votes. Your candidate Hilary/Harris/Carney is gonna win handily, you don't have to bother voting. Luckily it didn't work north of the border.


Views expressed may or may not be sincere... they're not sincere but make sense in the way conspiracies can

[Jacob]

Agree with Bauer and CC re: the pressure on Carney and the position the NDP find themselves in. It'll be interesting to see how things turn out as Canada gets to know Carney the person and Carney the politician, as opposed to Carney the resume.

I'm also interested in how well Poilievre has the Conservatives under control. I can totally see the argument for keeping steady as she goes, and also the argument for a leadership challenge. I don't know enough about the internal dynamics of the Conservatives to have a sense for what is more likely.

I can say, I did like the Poilievre of his concession speech and I think that that Poilievre could've won him the election. But then it does seem that whenever I warm to a Canadian Conservative's actions, that's when they get turfed by their party

[Jacob]

Separately, I've been reading assorted foreign media about our election, and it's interesting (funny) how different outlets spin it.

They range from "massive Liberal comeback from the dead, only a few seats short of a majority and getting everything they want, Conservative leader even loses his own seat" to "ruling Liberals rebuked, fail to win majority, massive Conservative gains."

[crazy canuck]

I can say, I did like the Poilievre of his concession speech and I think that that Poilievre could've won him the election. But then it does seem that whenever I warm to a Canadian Conservative's actions, that's when they get turfed by their party

Yeah, I agree with this. And it is really the ongoing argument BB and I have.  My view is that the Conservatives would have been much better off not catering to the hard right and instead take a page from the Ontario PCs and go for the middle. Their whole strategy was based on the world that existed under Trudeau in which nobody was occupying the middle and so it was safer to cater to the extremes.

But it was inevitable that the Liberals would revert back to their usual ideological space (if not under Carney then another leader) and so the Conservatives ceded all that ground.

BB and others within the Conservative party take a very different view. Their position is that so long as they hold all of the right, they can win.  I think that is also Poilievre's world view given his history. I don't think he can stay in the character we saw in the concession speech for very long.

[Bauer]

I can say, I did like the Poilievre of his concession speech and I think that that Poilievre could've won him the election. But then it does seem that whenever I warm to a Canadian Conservative's actions, that's when they get turfed by their party

Indeed, also some of his history bringing up things like crypto currency and more recently getting into nonsense like repealing plastic wrap bans etc I'm sure stained his image.

 I don't think they have much chance of winning barring a major scandal if they don't pull more centre, but then parts of their base would be alienated for abandoning "conservative values."

I wonder/hope as we get more distant from Covid will the wave of populist discontent decline.

[Jacob]

There's definitely some back and forth going on. Though personally I expect that even if Poilievre goes, his replacement will still be more aligned with the Prairie based movement than the East Coast.

Poilievre's Conservatives must do 'soul-searching' after election loss: N.S. premier

Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says the Conservative Party of Canada should do some "soul-searching" just days after Pierre Poilievre's defeat at the polls.


In contrast, Houston told reporters Wednesday that he's "optimistic about what's possible" and looks forward to working with the newly elected Liberal government led by Prime Minister Mark Carney.

The words highlight tensions between the premier and Poilievre, who lost his own riding of Carleton after facing stiff competition for a seat he had held for 20 years.

"Look, I think there are many shades of blue, and it can be a big tent and it can be an effective big tent," said Houston, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Nova Scotia.

"I think that after four consecutive losses to the Liberal party, I think it's time for them to do some soul-searching. And I hope they do."

Houston went on to say he thought the federal Conservatives were "very good at pushing people away, not so good at pulling people in."

"I think that they probably saw that in some of the results they had across the country," he said.

...

[Grey Fox]

As longs has Reform calls the shots, it will end in defeat.

[crazy canuck]

From the Globe - early indications are positive.  Let's hope Vance isn't in the room.

U.S. President Donald Trump called Prime Minister Mark Carney a "very nice gentleman" and said he expects the Canadian leader to visit him at the White House within a week.

Speaking to reporters in Washington, the President was asked about Mr. Carney's comments in his victory speech after the Liberal Party won the 2025 federal election. In his Tuesday remarks, Mr. Carney told cheering supporters that America has betrayed Canada with its protectionist tariffs.

Mr. Trump appeared to shrug off the comments, saying Mr. Carney "was running for office."

He talked of his Tuesday phone call with the Prime Minister, saying Mr. Carney "couldn't have been nicer" and predicted "we're going to have a great relationship."

In late March, Mr. Carney and Mr. Trump agreed that after the April 28 election, the pair would begin negotiations on a new economic and security relationship between the United States and Canada.

Speaking of the Tuesday call with Mr. Carney, Mr. Trump Wednesday said the Prime Minister reached out to him and said, 'Let's make a deal.' "

[Valmy]

Damn Canadians and their niceness.

Well I shouldn't worry. Trump is sure to piss him off soon.

[crazy canuck]

Damn Canadians and their niceness.

Well I shouldn't worry. Trump is sure to piss him off soon.

The reason I thought Carney was the better choice in this election is he is used to dealing with self important people.  I think he will be able to play Trump very well.

[HVC]

https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/doug-ford-fires-back-at-federal-tories-claims-he-sabotaged-pierre-poilievre/article_96dc6bf9-6120-4b7c-a09e-807a1f034f02.html

 Ford response to Jivani

"I shouldn't interfere in the federal election," Ford told reporters in Mississauga on Wednesday when asked why he didn't help Poilievre.

"Last time I checked, Pierre Poilievre never came out in our election," the premier said, referring to the Ontario Progressive Conservatives' re-election on Feb. 27.

"Matter of fact, he ... or one of his lieutenants told every one of his members, don't you dare go out and help the PCs," he said.

"Isn't that ironic?"

Surprised no one's going after Jivani more. He's the perfect target of an "American Plant" smear

[saskganesh]

Bloc says they will support the government for at least a year. So the NDP have no cards left. Denying them status will make it easier to recruit.

[crazy canuck]

Smart play by the Bloc

[crazy canuck]

Interview with Ford's campaign manager. Some interesting insights about the conflict between the progressive conservative wing of the party and the Trumpist.  His view is that when poly F stopped sounding so much like Trump. He started to come back in the polls and that is why he did so well in the election.

The Trump is going over the party will of course, not agree and believe that they did well because they destroyed the peoples party, but there's really no indication that people's party was ever going to do well anyway.  Cynic and me think that the people's party is a fig leaf for the Trumpists in Canada to act the way they do.

Also, some interesting insight which supports Jacob's view. He thinks that in Ontario people my age went Liberal, but millennials and Gen Z went Conservative. Which, of course, is exactly the opposite of what historically happens.

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/front-burner/id1439621628?i=1000705667657