[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[HVC]

It's tradition. Federal and even provincial seat requirements  vary, but they're rules in the guideline sense and can be put aside. Not sure of the process of allowing party status when parties don't get enough seats though.

[Valmy]

So if the Liberals wanted to make the NDP an official party in exchange for the NDP being part of their coalition, could they do that on their own? Would it be worth doing that for them?

[HVC]

Looked it up. You need 12 seats in the federal election to be given party status. So NDP got just above half the required amount. To be waved you need a vote in the house. Doesn't say how much the vote needs to pass by. I'm assuming that if the libs and NDP combine they'd have enough votes.

[Barrister]

Official party status isn't anything constitutional.  It's just a parliamentary rule.  It gives the party certain funds as a parliamentary caucus plus more questions in question period.

[saskganesh]

If there's a coalition, what's left of the NDP needs to demand official party status as a starting condition. This is not unreasonable.

The magnificent seven. Book it.

Liberals would be better off bribing one to jump ship for a majority

I'm sure they will try. It's not unknown. But whoever jumps will have to deal with disappointed constituents and angry colleagues, they will have to bear the weight of killing the NDP as a federal party.

[HVC]

If there's a coalition, what's left of the NDP needs to demand official party status as a starting condition. This is not unreasonable.

The magnificent seven. Book it.

Liberals would be better off bribing one to jump ship for a majority

I'm sure they will try. It's not unknown. But whoever jumps will have to deal with disappointed constituents and angry colleagues, they will have to bear the weight of killing the NDP as a federal party.

Any NDP at retirement age with a hate on for the conservatives, or in need of a cushy post political career job like a  Chairman of some board. I'd take a block party turncoat too.

[Valmy]

They need three NDP MPs to jump though, not just one.

[HVC]

You're right, I thought they had 171 for some reason.

[viper37]

Official part means being able to ask questions in parliament and funding. Probably more things but that's the one I know. You need a minimum number of seats. NDP didn't hit that threshold

I know that NDP didn't get enough seats to be an official party. I get that being an official party is good for various reasons, probably including campaign funding I guess. I just don't understand how one gets official status and why the other parties may or may not want to help.

The rule at the federal level is you need 12 MPs elected to be recognized as an official party status.

These are the current rules.  I believe they were a tad stricter when the Bloc Québécois first arrived on the scene*

What ir gives: more budget for research (able to hire parlimentary assistants, for example), more questions to ask and, IIRC, one more sub question to the Minister's answers.  also, a better spot in the House of Commons, more visible to the cameras.

As to why won't they cooperate to bend the rules... Nobody likes the Bloc.

*when they first arrived in the Federal scene, following Lucien bouchard's split from the Conservative Party, they were 1 or 2 MP short of the official party status.  I may misremember, but I think  Liberal joined them, they gained the sufficient number, and the Conservatives still refuses them official party status because they hadn't been elected under the Bloc yet.  something that was nowhere in the rules.

Come the 1993 election.  the Mulroney Conservatives are all but wipedout, only 2 MPs left.  But nationally, they retain a higher percentage of vote tham the Bloc who's now the official opposition.  Jean Charest ask for official recgnition and his told to fuck off by the Block, sent to the back along the drapes.


Flash forward to 2015.  The Bloc is defeated.  Only 10 MPs left.  They ask their official party status.  Conservative agree.  Liberal agrees.  NDP votes no.  rules are rules.

So now, the tables have turned.  The Bloc will show no mercy.  Blanchet could, of course show he is the better man.  But I fear he is a diplomee of Trump's university.

[viper37]

They need three NDP MPs to jump though, not just one.

They shouls have tried to recruit Ruth Ellen Brosseau in Quebec.  it might have take some convincing. But that lady had a chance to go back in politics with a real team behind her.

A few better non paradroped candidates in Qc would have helped too.

[Jacob]

If there's a coalition, what's left of the NDP needs to demand official party status as a starting condition. This is not unreasonable.

The magnificent seven. Book it.

Liberals would be better off bribing one to jump ship for a majority

I'm sure they will try. It's not unknown. But whoever jumps will have to deal with disappointed constituents and angry colleagues, they will have to bear the weight of killing the NDP as a federal party.

Better not be Don Davies from Vancouver Kingsway. We already had one floor crosser in this riding, and that's plenty.

[saskganesh]

Emerson. And he never ran again.

[crazy canuck]

On the issue of how long this government lasts, Carney now has to live up to his billing.  Things have to move fast, which is very much not the Canadian way both institutionally and politically.

So the pressure is on but Carney got elected because he could do it.  Now he has to perform.

Balanced against that, the NDP won't be in any shape financially or politically to fight another election for at least a couple of years. 

The weakness of the NDP means this government will last for a number of years, and if Carney does perform, the next election will be at a time of the Liberal's choosing.

But if he does not perform, the Liberals will likely be wiped out in the next election. And this is the scenario the NDP must work/hope for, because if a 2011 type revival does not occur they could be done as a Federal party.

[Bauer]

On the issue of how long this government lasts, Carney now has to live up to his billing.  Things have to move fast, which is very much not the Canadian way both institutionally and politically.

So the pressure is on but Carney got elected because he could do it.  Now he has to perform.

Balanced against that, the NDP won't be in any shape financially or politically to fight another election for at least a couple of years. 

The weakness of the NDP means this government will last for a number of years, and if Carney does perform, the next election will be at a time of the Liberal's choosing.

But if he does not perform, the Liberals will likely be wiped out in the next election. And this is the scenario the NDP must work/hope for, because if a 2011 type revival does not occur they could be done as a Federal party.

Sounds about right.  I really don't see how the NDP could be in any position to bargain in the short term.

I also think it's possible the liberals survive a couple years gaining support from different parties in confidence votes without relying on them, and if they do well they'll shoot for majority then.

[Josephus]

Looking at what is left, I think the best they can do now is 171 - if the flip Maple Ridge - which oddly has a few polls still to report, and they flip the remaining undecided NDP riding in Vancouver.

But—- but —  only recently 338 was saying there was a 96 per cent chance of a Liberal majority. 

If only there was someone here on Languish who repeatedly warned us about the irrelevance of polling
 

That dropped to 68% in the last days of the campaign, shortly before the English site was hacked.

Yes, and I pointed that out. But that only proves my point that I'd been making all along....Polls weeks ahead of an election don't mean much...if anything they can affect elections.

EDIT: the only purpose they can hold is to observe trends, I suppose. A couple weeks ago majority probability was in the high 90s. then high 80s. Then late last weekend, mid 60s. It was clear by that point, that the odds of a majority were falling pretty quickly.